NHL Play-In: Western Conference Preview

For the same reasons as yesterday's post about the Eastern Conference, I won't spend too much time on the round-robin portion that is set to position the top four seeds out West. The West has the reigning Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues, as well as the near-perfect and deep Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, while a case can be made to say the Dallas Stars stole the Edmonton Oilers' spot in a top-four that is less dominant towards the bottom-eight than their Eastern counterparts are, but the presence of Ben Bishop alone is enough to take them seriously.

Wherever these top seeds end up, it's going to be followed by a difficult match-up.

Edmnonton Oilers vs Chicago Blackhawks
The Hawks didn't think they'd be playing meaningful games this Spring/Summer, so they sent their healthiest star goalie to Vegas and kept the one who has had concussion issues for the past two years; this summer, Corey Crawford's also gotten Covid-19. You can never count out Crawford's eliteness or his Cup-winning pedrigree, as well as that of Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, but the Oilers have two of the three best forwards on the planet in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and youth should win over experience in this one.

I'm a huge Crawford fan, but I believe Mikko Koskinen is healthier (Mike Smith has a couple of 40-save games left in his fine career, but they are probably not consecutive, which a best-of-five series would require on his part, so logic would dictate he not see more than one or two games in this series). I also believe Edmonton's defense is slightly superior to that of the Hawks.

Where the Hawks have a chance is they have a higher ceiling in their middle-of-the-lineup forward group. I do not believe it beats a team playing at home, with the feverish atmosphere in the city and media, which should be enough to pump this young group up.

Offense: Oilers
Defense: Oilers
Goaltending: Oilers
Coaching: Oilers
My heart: Oilers

My pick: Oilers in 4. It might go to 5 games, because the Hawks have had the Oilers' number all year, but I can't see this 12th seed beating the fifth seed.


Calgary Flames vs Winnipeg Jets
This is the hardest one on me: I find it extremely sad that one of these teams will be eliminated in the next couple of weeks. Both are flawed, both seem on the down swing, but both are very exciting to watch and have elite attacks and top-level goaltending, with Winnipeg getting the edge on the latter with my pick for this year's Vezina Trophy, Connor Hellebuyck.

As a matter of fact, if the Jets weren't in a contract dispute with star defender Dustin Byfuglien, they would have been one of my two favourites to reach the Conference Final (with Colorado), despite their defense losing key pieces like Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot last summer - they're that good - or they would have been.

Without that kind of game-changer, though, I believe a guy like Matthew Tkachuk will have an important role, taking some of the scoring heat off of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan while attracting the bulk of Winnipeg's cheap shots and anger. And despite Travis Hamonic opting out of this year's postseason, the Flames still boast one of the five best defenses in the league, which will only help David Rittich.

I definitely prefer Calgary's current coach to the one they started the year with, but Paul Maurice's experience might be a factor in at least one game, as is the Jets' superb offensive firepower from captain Blake Wheeler, star centre Mark Scheifele, potential 50-goal scorer Patrick Laine, and all-around talent Kyle Connor.

Offense: Jets
Defense: Flames
Goaltending: Jets
Coaching: Jets
My heart: Jets

My pick: Flames in 5. They have too much to lose, which is where the Jets were last year - except Johnny Hockey and Dirty Matthew can handle five games. Their playoff path will likely end in the first round again this year, however, because I can't see them beating any one of Dallas, Colorado, St. Louis or Vegas when they're through with the Jets.


Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild
The Canucks finally have a lineup to get excited about, with Elias Petersen, Bo Horvath, Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes and Jacob Markstrom, and very few people give the Wild a chance, mostly because it seems backup Alex Stalock has supplanted two-time Vezina nominee Devan Dubnyk in nets and an aging group that includes Mikko Koivu, Zack Parise and Ryan Suter - some of the NHL's most expensive veteran players. It's like they never decided to go on a rebuild but never realized they stopped contending, either.

The Canucks, on the other hand, have lost and lost and lost for years - and come up on the other side with prized prospects who are poised to start learning how to win in the postseason. They're another two or three years away from serious contention, but they're on track. This is step one, losing in the first round will be step two.

Offense: Canucks
Defense: Wild
Goaltending: Canucks
Coaching: Wild
My heart: Canucks

My pick: Canucks in 5. I have never believed in the Wild, I will not start today with pretty much the same roster - or same type of roster - they've had since Jacques Lemaire left town.


Nashville Predators vs Arizona Coyotes
I'll admit I'm underwhelmed by this one. The Preds are more boring without P.K. Subban on the back end and Peter Laviolette behind the bench, though I'll admit the latter had passed his due date. And Pekka Rinne is clearly in the twilight of his career at this point, too, as the team's entire offense at this point. Matt Duchene has once again taken the chemistry of a team away, Kyle Turris looks lost, and Ryan Johansen has never lived up to his contract or his own expectations.The defense is still miraculous, and Juuse Saros will probably eventually be really good, but this looks like a team in transition more than the team that almost won the Cup and then followed that with a Presidents' Trophy a couple of years ago.

Arizona... a team that's seemingly always for sale, without a permanent home, without a home city, now without a GM... who two best forwards - Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall - have proven time and time again to be unable to lead teams to victory and whose star defenseman - Oliver Ekman-Larsson - seems like he's evolving out of his prime at just 29 years of age.

I'm not the world's biggest Rick Tocchet fan, but he does have the edge over John Hynes here, because while he didn't win a Stanley Cup with the Tampa Bay Lightning in his previous coaching opportunity, at least he didn't take a dynasty and sink it at the bottom of the league like Hynes did with the New Jersey Devils.

Offense: Predators
Defense: Predators
Goaltending: Coyotes
Coaching: Coyotes
My heart: Predators

My pick: Predators in 5. I do think that failing to qualify for the playoffs would be disastrous for David Poile's Preds, who has made a succession of questionable personnel decisions after being near-perfect for over a decade, but I can't see this Yotes squad accomplishing anything other than pitching two shutouts in five games - their goaltending tandem is that much better than Nashville's offense, but the Predators can still win games with just their blue line.

NHL Play-In: Eastern Conference Preview

I won't spend too much time on the round-robin portion that is set to position the top four seeds, except to say this: it doesn't really matter. The Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals are by far the best teams in the Eastern Conference and can match up against any of the bottom-eight favourably, while the Philadelphia Flyers know they should be battling it out more seriously against a team that is facing elimination instead of just trying to reach game shape, so they'll still be happy with an 0-3 record but are aiming for a higher seed just so they can perhaps avoid playing a team like the Pittsburgh Penguins too early.

All four of these teams know their Round 1 opponent will be battle-tested and will have faced more recently the pressure of an elimination game.

Caroline Hurricanes vs New York Rangers
The Rangers are one of three teams (with the Montréal Canadiens and Chicago Blackhawks) that have no business playing right now according to their regular-season performances. Don't get me wrong: having a Hart and Linsday candidate in Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad to back him up and feed off of him is great, but the supporting cast of Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich and a green Kaapo Kakko is not the kind of depth that scares a top seed. Heck, they'll be facing perhaps the best defense in the league in this series - whether Dougie Hamilton - who should have been on the Norris Trophy finalist list this season - plays or not; Jaccob Slavin is still there, Jake Gardiner can provide some of Hamilton's offense, Brady Skeij was once the Rangers' top guy, Sami Vatanen is a luxury on the second pair, and the likes of Brett Pesce, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, Stanley Cup winner Joel Edmundson and youngster Haydn Fleury can all replace in the middle pairing, be it for a game or a series.

The Rags' defense isn't shabby either, with Tony DeAngelo, Adam Fox, and Jacon Trouba, but they lack the Canes' depth and star power. All three of their goalies - yes, even the aging Henrik Lundqvist - are better than Carolina's.

Offense: Rangers
Defense: Hurricanes
Goaltending: Rangers
Coaching: Hurricanes
My heart: Rangers

My pick: Rangers in 4. The team that scores more goals wins. The Rangers will have a hard time between the red line and the offensive zone's face-off circles, but they'll score on every other shot they take and stop 90% of Carolina's. The math is in their favour.


New York Islanders vs Florida Panthers
This one pits two of the best coaches in the game - the Islanders' Barry Trotz and the Panthers' Joel Quenneville - against each other for a chance to enter the Stanley Cup playoffs. Quenneville's three Cups with the Hawks trumps Trotz' single one from his days with the Caps following a decade building the Nashville Predators into contenders, but Trotz still has the edge because he can remake an entire organization in a single season while keeping more than half the same staff. That's a master tactician at work.

I also want to give the Isles the edge in nets, not because Thomas Greiss or Semyon Varlamov at their best could ever be in the same zone as the Cats' Sergei Bobrovsky, but this is Bob's second-straight sub-par season, and a Varlamov at the top of his game is better than Bob at 80% of his.

If Aaron Ekblad uses this series to pull out of his shell and become the Norris contender he should be, Florida will also have the endge on D, but if he merely remains "pretty good", he and Keith Yandle will get outshined by the Isles' group in a hurry.

Where the matchup is uneven is on offense, as the Panthers boast two of the ten best two-way forwards in the game in Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau, two 90+-point players in their prime who do not fear the opposition's top lines - and they've seen better than Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, and the rest of the 40-point producers from Long Island.

Offense: Panthers
Defense: Islanders
Goaltending: Panthers (I believe!)
Coaching: Islanders
My heart: Panthers

My pick: Islanders in 5. They're too deep and balanced to not advance against the Panthers, but it won't be easy.


Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montréal Canadiens
Forget Carey Price - the NHL doesn't even consider him in the top-10 anymore - and rightfully so. If the Habs are to have a chance, Phillip Danault has to outplay Sidney Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin (doable in a short series), Shea Weber has to shut down the Pens for 30 minutes per game with Jeff Petry handling the other half (not likely, but stranger things have happened) and the Canadiens' offensive support cast has to outplay Pittsburgh's, with at least one middle-six forward - so, not Danault, Brendan Gallagher or Tomas Tatar - scoring 5 goals in the series (sure, why not?) and the Pens have to forget they can also enter the Montréal zone from the left side (not likely).

These games can all go to overtime - that's how much parity there is in today's NHL - but they will all end in Pittsburgh's favour. They are superior in every way despite being on the back end of their Cup contention window.

This scenario is ideal for Habs GM Marc Bergevin, however: he can claim the team didn't have that bad a season since they made the play-in round and still ice a bad enough team to have a fair shot (25% chance at this point) at the first-overall pick in the next draft, Alexis Lafrenière, a generational talent.

Offense: Penguins
Defense: Penguins
Goaltending: Penguins
Coaching: Penguins
My heart: Canadiens

My pick: Penguins in 2. This is a dress rehearsal for the first round, the intensity will mount with each game, but try as they might, Claude Julien's men will be overmatched.


Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets
No team is facing more pressure than the Leafs. Sure, the Edmonton Oilers are also playing at home for whatever that means in an empty building - the city is still abuzz and the home teams will get preferred treatment in the media in each hub - but the Oilers will benefit from an excitement factor unseen since 2006 while the Leafs have been expected to contend for the Stanley Cup for three years now, and the fans and media are getting impatient.

Add to that the fact that the Blue Jackets swept the Presidents' Trophy-winning Bolts last year and made the play-in despite losing Panarin and Bobrovsky (as well as Ryan Dzingel and Matt Duchene) on the strength of even better team play and even better goaltending from a pair of rookies and you've got a recipe for disaster in the 416.

The Leafs have the second-best offense in the Conference after Tampa, but their defense is questionable and their goalie has had a bad year; the Jackets score by committee,  but both goalies have ranked in the NHL's top-10 for most of the season, helped by the fact that they're playing behind one of the five best defenses in the league (behind Carolina's and Tampa's, on par with Nashville's and ahead of Calgary's).

Offense: Leafs, by far
Defense: Jackets
Goaltending: Jackets
Coaching: Jackets
My heart: Jackets

My pick: Blue Jackets in 5. The smile on John Tortorella's face when he eliminates the Queen City's boys in blue will be worth the NHL Center Ice subscription on its own.

The Best And Cutest Little Dancer

I try to leave minors out of this blog, for all the right reasons.

However, my kid's a cute little fucker:

14 months old, just started walking (now running all over the place at all times), and a star dancer. Also, as you can tell by the bottles on the floor, a juggler-in-training.