NHL 2019-20 Playoffs: Round 2 Predictions

As mentioned yesterday, I did even better with my Round 1 Predictions than those for the Play-in, so perhaps my luck is about to run out.

Eastern Conference:

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs New York Islanders (4)

The top seed in the East versus the best defensive system in the NHL. This will come down to Carter Hart showing he is ready to steal a series, as the Flyers' better offense will be stifled in a way they haven't suffered in the postseason yet. Head coach Alain Vigneault will need to find a way to have his defensemen move the play up-ice to help Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and a rejuvenated Jakub Voracek without becoming liabilities in their own end in the type of game of patience that the Washington Capitals did not feel like partaking in.

The Isles are exactly the type of team that can make a dent in the playoffs, so well coached and methodical that they don't need to have the best line on the ice to win - not that their seven forwards who are able to churn out 60-point seasons under Barry Trotz are devoid of talent, they just don't blindly rely on it.

Offense: Flyers
Defense: Islanders
Goaltending: tie
Coaching: Islanders
My heart: Flyers

My pick: Flyers in 7.


Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs Boston Bruins (3)

This one pits last year's Presidents Trophy-winning Bolts against this season's recipients, the Teddy Bears, and while both are technically elite teams, the Bruins are aging and more of a one-line team with a good defense, while the Lightning are one of the best teams ever assembled, with All-Stars and Olympians at every position on at least two consistent waves.

Boston's got the better coach, as Tampa's Jon Cooper has seemingly under-performed every year he's been at the helm, with zero Stanley Cups to show for with this crew under GMs Steve Yzerman and now Julien BriseBois, while the Bs made it to the Final last year.

If the Bruins looked disinterested during the Play-In round, they got their act together to eliminate the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1 and are a legitimate threat to keep rolling; Tampa Bay's downfall might be that they spent the entire season getting ready to face the Columbus Blue Jackets to avenge last season's first-round sweep, and they've already done that, so unless they get the Miracle On Ice team to deliver pre-game pep talks and warning messages, they might forget that they haven't actually won anything yet.

Offense: Lightning
Defense: Lightning
Goaltending: Lightning, because of the two potential back-to-backs
Coaching: Bruins
My heart: Bruins

My pick: Lightning in 6.


Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Vancouver Canucks (4)

Marc-André Fleury 's agent Allan Walsh is back to his old tricks, tweeting up a goaltending controversy ten years after igniting the Jaroslav Halak/Carey Price debate. Robin Lehner just wants to show he can play in the postseason and sign a multi-year deal in free agency, but he knew he was going to a team that was already committed to someone else; The Knights will have to decide whether to run with the mistress or work things out with the spouse.

On the ice, the Golden Knights are a lot deeper than the Canucks at every position, not just between the pipes where they have two goalies that are as good as Jacob Markstrom - but they do not have the superstar talent like Elias Pettersen and Quinn Hughes; they do, however, have have experience, brand-name recognition, and the capability to shut down superstars while putting the puck behind the goalie in the other end. Vancouver might not win the series, but they will learn a lot from it, which will help them for years to come.

I will say, however, that I was impressed with Travis Green's coaching in Round 1. I think the Canucks might have a better hockey brain behind the bench, but a team that has Mark Stone and Paul Stastny on the ice has all the hockey IQ it needs to win every game despite that.

Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: Golden Knights
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: Canucks
My heart: Golden Knights

My pick: Vegas in 6.

Colorado Avalanche (2) vs Dallas Stars (3)

The Avs are just like the Golden Knights: just about perfect and deep everywhere, but with the best offensive line in hockey and a strong second line instead of two #1As, including Nathan MacKinnon, possibly the biggest game-breaker left in the playoffs. Oh, and two #1 goalies in case of injuries.

The Stars just disposed of the Calgary Flames, though, a better team than they were, with a better overall defense than Colorado has - but a lower tier of goaltending. Yet Dallas played most of the series with their own backup - Anton Khudobin - in net, after Ben Bishop got into some injury trouble.

Do not sleep on the Stars, they will win at least two games, three if the top line of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov wakes up. But The Avalanche are just too good to not win the series.

Offense: Avalanche
Defense: Avalanche
Goaltending: Avalanche
Coaching: Stars
My heart: Avalanche

My pick: Avalanche in 6.

NHL 2019-20 Playoffs: Round 1 Post-Mortem

Well, it turns out I was either spot-on or dead wrong with these, with two of the ones I predicted against my wishes being in the ones I erred on, so I'm fairly satisfied with how it turned out.

Let's take a look:

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (8)

Prediction: Flyers in 6. Spot on.

The Flyers were the top seed in the East for a reason - they've been the best team in the league since January and continued pressing in the bubble. The Habs stole one and were handed another when Carter Hart failed to shut the door in Game 5, but his teammates didn't let him do that again in Game 6.  This bodes well for Philadelphia going forward.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7)

Prediction: Blue Jackets in 6. Dead wrong.

Yes, I have been more wrong in my life, but this one stings because I really wanted The Blue Jackets to move on to the second round for the first time in franchise history. I like their mix of players, I like their coach, but ultimately what may have contributed to their downfall was that John Tortorella refused to let himself be John Tortorella; when goalie Joonas Korpisalo started feeling the fatigue of his record-making eight-period, 85-save performance later on in the series, he should have been pulled in favour of Elvis Merzlikins, also a very capable netminder that the team has faith in; the "real" Torts has brass (and golden) balls, no pity, and no patience with his goalies. The big game made him emotional and soft.

It's fair to keep in mind that this is still pretty much the same Lightning team that broke all kinds of records last season, certainly the best-assembled team of the cap era, possibly one of the 10 better lineups of all time. So they had every right to seize their opportunity to move forward.

Washington Capitals (3) vs New York Islanders (5)

Prediction: Islanders in 7. Right team, they needed two fewer games in the end.

I gave the Capitals way too much credit and underestimated this iteration of the Barry Trotz system.

Boston Bruins (4) vs Caroline Hurricanes (5)

Prediction: Hurricanes in 7. Wrong team, gladly.

The Bruins won and they didn't need Tuukka Rask in every game to do so. Their top line is waking up, too. Life is sometimes frustrating, but at least it's starting to make sense again.


Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Chicago Blackhawks (8)

Prediction: Vegas in 5. Spot on.

The best-seeded team in the West met the Conference's most flawed roster. Chicago's superstars and playoff experience got the better of the Edmonton Oilers in the qualifying round, but the Golden Knights were ready. They even used both their goalies in back-to-back games, a rare sight in modern playoffs.

Colorado Avalanche (2) vs Arizona Coyotes (7)

Prediction: Avalanche in 4. The Coyotes stole one game.

At this point, only the Golden Knights look like they can win four of seven against this Avs team out West.

Dallas Stars (3) vs Calgary Flames (6)

Prediction: Flames in 5. Stars won in six.

Calgary couldn't recover from losing Matthew Tkachuk early in the series, Dallas won it despite Ben Bishop only suiting up for one game. The Flames' Geoff Ward got a coaching clinic from former 1990s Team Canada bench boss Rick Bowness in this series.

St. Louis Blues (4) vs Vancouver Canucks (5)

Prediction: Blues in 6 or 7. I'm not a fan of the Blues and was rooting for the Canucks, so... yay!

As expected, there were games where St. Louis' Stanley Cup-winning veterans took over the game and bullied Vancouver's skinny kids as a "lesson in winning and effort". What was a nice surprise was that the Canucks applied their opponents' teachings the very next game instead of the following season, and Blues bench boos Craig Berube made the same fatal mistake as Torts did and took out the goalie who got the team back in the series - Jake Allen - to replace him with the guy who had stolen his job the previous year, Jordan Binnington. In the playoffs, you ride the hot hand in nets, loyalty can only be given in first or second games (see: Mike Smith for the Oilers in Game 1 of the Qualifiers). Anything else is asking for trouble.

Each team's MVPs so far:

Flyers: Sean Couturier, but Kevin Hayes is a surprising second
Islanders: Anthony Beauvillier
Bolts: Brayden Point
Bruins: David Krejci
Canucks: Elias Pettersen
Golden Knights: Shea Theodore
Stars: Miro Heiskanen
Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon, who doubles as the Conn Smythe favourite after one true round plus the qualifiers

NHL 2019-20 Playoffs: Round 1 Predictions

I'm glad to say I didn't fare all that bad in my Play-in Predictions (didn't see both #12 seeds moving on), though you're always aiming at a better than 50% rate, and I think my first-round predictions are worth a read. Sure, I've got a shocker or two in there for good measure, but most of these picks fall within reason.

Eastern Conference:

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (8)

The Flyers may have a self-destructive GM in Chuck Fletcher, he was wise enough to hire a top-level coaching staff that will compensate for his own failings such as overpaid free agents and botched trades in the three-headed monster comprised of Alain Vigneault, Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo, each playing to their strengths. Claude Giroux is still a capable leader, Sean Couturier has become an important first-line player, the wingers are tough, the defense is stingy and Carter Hart in net is showing he can be just as good as Jordan Binnington was last year - except in his case, it's exactly the role he was drafted for and destined to take on.

Hart will face his childhood idol Carey Price, who cried on the ice the last time he faced the Flyers as the #1 guy in the 2008 playoffs, unable to solve R.J. Umberger and out-duelled by Martin Biron. The Habs' Big Three did a number on the Pittsburgh Penguins, but they'll be facing guys who will put their own forwards through the same ordeal, so in that case you have to hand it to the best offense to find a way. The Flyers' defense is also much younger and closer to its prime.

Offense: Flyers
Defense: Flyers
Goaltending: Flyers
Coaching: Flyers
My heart: Canadiens

My pick: Flyers in 6.


Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7)

It won't exactly be a repeat of last season because it cannot be as quick as last year; the Bolts are prepared for the onslaught the Jackets will bring and spent the first half of the season preparing for just that, losing easy standing points in the process but learning a hard lesson. Tampa still has a recent Norris winner (Victor Hedman), last year's Vezina winner (Andrei Vasilevskyi), and a former Hart and Art Ross winner (Nikita Kucherov) who are sure to play, and a former Rocket Richard winner (Steven Stamkos) who might suit up if the series goes long enough. The high-end talent is definitely there.

But the Jackets have just eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs, the second-best offense in the Conference... behind Tampa's. They crave this match-up. They're ready and warmed up.

Offense: Lightning
Defense: Jackets
Goaltending: Lightning
Coaching: Jackets
My heart: Jackets

My pick: Blue Jackets in 6.

Washington Capitals (3) vs New York Islanders (5)

No one wants to face a Barry Trotz-coached team in the first round, and no one wants to face the New York Islanders under Trotz - especially not a team that has underwhelmed and under-performed in the round robin, has lost important elements on defense since their last postseason and whose best goalie will not play. Granted, that leaves them with Stanley Cup winner Braden Holtby between the pipes, but judging by the past three regular-seasons, he will be walking away as a free agent this off-season and may not find a job as a #1 in his next stop.

The Isles are very disciplined, extremely balanced, and now deeper than ever thanks to the deadline acquisition of proven playoff performer Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

In this type of match-up, one question is important: can Alex Ovechkin beat the Islanders by himself? The answer is "yes", but it's also "he would pretty much have to", considering the Caps' questionable defense and goaltending. You simply cannot count on and expect a Conn Smythe-worthy performance just to get through Round One, it's just unfair.

Offense: Capitals
Defense: Islanders
Goaltending: Islanders
Coaching: Islanders
My heart: Capitals

My pick: Islanders in 7. In the NHL.com Bracket Challenge, I chose the Caps, but for my "public face", I feel I'm being more honest by picking Long Island.

Boston Bruins (4) vs Caroline Hurricanes (5)

Neither of these teams should be here; the Canes should be at home heeding tornado warnings and the Bruins should be facing the weakest team in the Conference, but instead, Boston coasted through the round robin trying their best not to get injured - or get anywhere near the puck, for that matter. The "Perfection Line" of Rocket Richard winner David Pastrnak, four-time Selke winner Patrice Bergeron and rat-faced Brad Marchand failed at pretty much everything they attempted in the three games.

And look, both Bruins goalies - Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak - can outplay their counterparts in their sleep (or in a coma), but the fact of the matter is that James Reimer and Petr Mazarek have played extremely well in sweeping the New York Rangers, and they may not be able to withstand that through two months of play, but it's possible they can do it for another ten days. And that's all they need to get through a lifeless Bruins team.

Offense: Bruins
Defense: Hurricanes
Goaltending: Bruins
Coaching: Bruins
My heart: Bruins

My pick: Hurricanes in 7. I don't want Carolina to win. I hate cheering for the Bruins. This is a no-win for me. But I'd rather no-win via Boston moving on, which means they won't.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Chicago Blackhawks (8)

Although their regular-season standings did not show that, the Golden Knights are not out of place as the first seed in the West; they have a perfect team. I dislike their changing coaches, going from one I like and respect (Gerard Gallant) to one I can't say a good word about (Peter DeBoer) and I feel it was disrespectful to Marc-André Fleury to go with Robin Lehner for two of the three round-robin games, but they're still a heck of a team and while the Hawks do have experience, pedigree, elite-level talent and brand-name recognition, they are nowhere near as deep or balanced as Vegas.

Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: Golden Knights
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: none
My heart: Golden Knights

My pick: Vegas in 5.

 Colorado Avalanche (2) vs Arizona Coyotes (7)

The Avs are just like the Golden Knights: perfect and deep everywhere. Two #1 goalies? Check. The best line in hockey? Check. The league's most valuable player? Check. The best rookie defenseman? Check. A solid top-4 on D that can play for 50 minutes? Check.

Commend the Yotes for beating the Nashville Predators and outplaying them in every facet to an extent where "hey, it's 2020" isn't a good enough excuse to give that core another shot. But these are the Avs. Sure, Colorado has a learning curve to go through, but they'll face hard lessons in the second round, not here.

Offense: Avalanche
Defense: Avalanche
Goaltending: Avalanche
Coaching: Coyotes
My heart: Avalanche

My pick: Avalanche in 4.

Dallas Stars (3) vs Calgary Flames (6)

I love the Dallas Stars.

Let me rephrase that: I love Ben Bishop, who has not suited up for two straight games. The oft-injured Vezina-worthy netminder may not play in this series, and he's Dallas' only hope. The top line of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alex Radulov has a combined zero (0) points (not goals, points) in the round robin and defenseman Miro Heiskanen is the only point-per-game player on Dallas this postseason. The only other player with more than a single point on the entire roster is 36-year-old Joe Pavelski, who has two goals.

Against the reigning Stanley Cup champions in the final round robin game, the Stars looked like they were skating in slow motion.

The Flames, on the other hand, went through the Winnipeg Jets like a steamroller, going balls-to-the-wall on every shift and injuring two of the Jets' best offensive threats in the process. To repeat against Dallas, they would have to injure... the Zamboni driver and a pizza delivery person, I guess. Calgary's stars are on a mission to have us forget last year's playofs and their former racist head coach; Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan have a playoff reputation to restore, and their defense is still great.

Calgary's not winning the Cup, but they're moving on to the next round.

Offense: Flames
Defense: Flames
Goaltending: Stars
Coaching: Stars
My heart: Flames

My pick: Flames in 5.

St. Louis Blues (4) vs Vancouver Canucks (5)

The reigning champs - like fellow finalists Boston - had a tough round robin. They failed to win a single game and looked disinterested most of the time. Can they find enough passion to wake up for their slumber before the Canucks take too commanding a lead?

My guess is the Blues' experience will shine through in the end, and they'll get into gear as each game passes, slowing down Vancouver's young and talented - albeit thin - legs. If St. Louis' offensive cannons can make some sort of noise, it'll be an added bonus, but by their depth alone and because they're facing a young and inexperienced group and coach, they'll have the best of the series. They'll need more to advance further, however.

Offense: Canucks
Defense: Blues
Goaltending: Canucks
Coaching: Blues
My heart: Canucks

My pick: Blues in 6 or 7.