NHL 2019-20 Playoffs: Round 2 Predictions

As mentioned yesterday, I did even better with my Round 1 Predictions than those for the Play-in, so perhaps my luck is about to run out.

Eastern Conference:

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs New York Islanders (4)

The top seed in the East versus the best defensive system in the NHL. This will come down to Carter Hart showing he is ready to steal a series, as the Flyers' better offense will be stifled in a way they haven't suffered in the postseason yet. Head coach Alain Vigneault will need to find a way to have his defensemen move the play up-ice to help Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and a rejuvenated Jakub Voracek without becoming liabilities in their own end in the type of game of patience that the Washington Capitals did not feel like partaking in.

The Isles are exactly the type of team that can make a dent in the playoffs, so well coached and methodical that they don't need to have the best line on the ice to win - not that their seven forwards who are able to churn out 60-point seasons under Barry Trotz are devoid of talent, they just don't blindly rely on it.

Offense: Flyers
Defense: Islanders
Goaltending: tie
Coaching: Islanders
My heart: Flyers

My pick: Flyers in 7.


Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs Boston Bruins (3)

This one pits last year's Presidents Trophy-winning Bolts against this season's recipients, the Teddy Bears, and while both are technically elite teams, the Bruins are aging and more of a one-line team with a good defense, while the Lightning are one of the best teams ever assembled, with All-Stars and Olympians at every position on at least two consistent waves.

Boston's got the better coach, as Tampa's Jon Cooper has seemingly under-performed every year he's been at the helm, with zero Stanley Cups to show for with this crew under GMs Steve Yzerman and now Julien BriseBois, while the Bs made it to the Final last year.

If the Bruins looked disinterested during the Play-In round, they got their act together to eliminate the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1 and are a legitimate threat to keep rolling; Tampa Bay's downfall might be that they spent the entire season getting ready to face the Columbus Blue Jackets to avenge last season's first-round sweep, and they've already done that, so unless they get the Miracle On Ice team to deliver pre-game pep talks and warning messages, they might forget that they haven't actually won anything yet.

Offense: Lightning
Defense: Lightning
Goaltending: Lightning, because of the two potential back-to-backs
Coaching: Bruins
My heart: Bruins

My pick: Lightning in 6.


Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Vancouver Canucks (4)

Marc-André Fleury 's agent Allan Walsh is back to his old tricks, tweeting up a goaltending controversy ten years after igniting the Jaroslav Halak/Carey Price debate. Robin Lehner just wants to show he can play in the postseason and sign a multi-year deal in free agency, but he knew he was going to a team that was already committed to someone else; The Knights will have to decide whether to run with the mistress or work things out with the spouse.

On the ice, the Golden Knights are a lot deeper than the Canucks at every position, not just between the pipes where they have two goalies that are as good as Jacob Markstrom - but they do not have the superstar talent like Elias Pettersen and Quinn Hughes; they do, however, have have experience, brand-name recognition, and the capability to shut down superstars while putting the puck behind the goalie in the other end. Vancouver might not win the series, but they will learn a lot from it, which will help them for years to come.

I will say, however, that I was impressed with Travis Green's coaching in Round 1. I think the Canucks might have a better hockey brain behind the bench, but a team that has Mark Stone and Paul Stastny on the ice has all the hockey IQ it needs to win every game despite that.

Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: Golden Knights
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: Canucks
My heart: Golden Knights

My pick: Vegas in 6.

Colorado Avalanche (2) vs Dallas Stars (3)

The Avs are just like the Golden Knights: just about perfect and deep everywhere, but with the best offensive line in hockey and a strong second line instead of two #1As, including Nathan MacKinnon, possibly the biggest game-breaker left in the playoffs. Oh, and two #1 goalies in case of injuries.

The Stars just disposed of the Calgary Flames, though, a better team than they were, with a better overall defense than Colorado has - but a lower tier of goaltending. Yet Dallas played most of the series with their own backup - Anton Khudobin - in net, after Ben Bishop got into some injury trouble.

Do not sleep on the Stars, they will win at least two games, three if the top line of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov wakes up. But The Avalanche are just too good to not win the series.

Offense: Avalanche
Defense: Avalanche
Goaltending: Avalanche
Coaching: Stars
My heart: Avalanche

My pick: Avalanche in 6.

NHL 2019-20 Playoffs: Round 1 Post-Mortem

Well, it turns out I was either spot-on or dead wrong with these, with two of the ones I predicted against my wishes being in the ones I erred on, so I'm fairly satisfied with how it turned out.

Let's take a look:

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (8)

Prediction: Flyers in 6. Spot on.

The Flyers were the top seed in the East for a reason - they've been the best team in the league since January and continued pressing in the bubble. The Habs stole one and were handed another when Carter Hart failed to shut the door in Game 5, but his teammates didn't let him do that again in Game 6.  This bodes well for Philadelphia going forward.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7)

Prediction: Blue Jackets in 6. Dead wrong.

Yes, I have been more wrong in my life, but this one stings because I really wanted The Blue Jackets to move on to the second round for the first time in franchise history. I like their mix of players, I like their coach, but ultimately what may have contributed to their downfall was that John Tortorella refused to let himself be John Tortorella; when goalie Joonas Korpisalo started feeling the fatigue of his record-making eight-period, 85-save performance later on in the series, he should have been pulled in favour of Elvis Merzlikins, also a very capable netminder that the team has faith in; the "real" Torts has brass (and golden) balls, no pity, and no patience with his goalies. The big game made him emotional and soft.

It's fair to keep in mind that this is still pretty much the same Lightning team that broke all kinds of records last season, certainly the best-assembled team of the cap era, possibly one of the 10 better lineups of all time. So they had every right to seize their opportunity to move forward.

Washington Capitals (3) vs New York Islanders (5)

Prediction: Islanders in 7. Right team, they needed two fewer games in the end.

I gave the Capitals way too much credit and underestimated this iteration of the Barry Trotz system.

Boston Bruins (4) vs Caroline Hurricanes (5)

Prediction: Hurricanes in 7. Wrong team, gladly.

The Bruins won and they didn't need Tuukka Rask in every game to do so. Their top line is waking up, too. Life is sometimes frustrating, but at least it's starting to make sense again.


Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Chicago Blackhawks (8)

Prediction: Vegas in 5. Spot on.

The best-seeded team in the West met the Conference's most flawed roster. Chicago's superstars and playoff experience got the better of the Edmonton Oilers in the qualifying round, but the Golden Knights were ready. They even used both their goalies in back-to-back games, a rare sight in modern playoffs.

Colorado Avalanche (2) vs Arizona Coyotes (7)

Prediction: Avalanche in 4. The Coyotes stole one game.

At this point, only the Golden Knights look like they can win four of seven against this Avs team out West.

Dallas Stars (3) vs Calgary Flames (6)

Prediction: Flames in 5. Stars won in six.

Calgary couldn't recover from losing Matthew Tkachuk early in the series, Dallas won it despite Ben Bishop only suiting up for one game. The Flames' Geoff Ward got a coaching clinic from former 1990s Team Canada bench boss Rick Bowness in this series.

St. Louis Blues (4) vs Vancouver Canucks (5)

Prediction: Blues in 6 or 7. I'm not a fan of the Blues and was rooting for the Canucks, so... yay!

As expected, there were games where St. Louis' Stanley Cup-winning veterans took over the game and bullied Vancouver's skinny kids as a "lesson in winning and effort". What was a nice surprise was that the Canucks applied their opponents' teachings the very next game instead of the following season, and Blues bench boos Craig Berube made the same fatal mistake as Torts did and took out the goalie who got the team back in the series - Jake Allen - to replace him with the guy who had stolen his job the previous year, Jordan Binnington. In the playoffs, you ride the hot hand in nets, loyalty can only be given in first or second games (see: Mike Smith for the Oilers in Game 1 of the Qualifiers). Anything else is asking for trouble.

Each team's MVPs so far:

Flyers: Sean Couturier, but Kevin Hayes is a surprising second
Islanders: Anthony Beauvillier
Bolts: Brayden Point
Bruins: David Krejci
Canucks: Elias Pettersen
Golden Knights: Shea Theodore
Stars: Miro Heiskanen
Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon, who doubles as the Conn Smythe favourite after one true round plus the qualifiers

NHL 2019-20 Playoffs: Round 1 Predictions

I'm glad to say I didn't fare all that bad in my Play-in Predictions (didn't see both #12 seeds moving on), though you're always aiming at a better than 50% rate, and I think my first-round predictions are worth a read. Sure, I've got a shocker or two in there for good measure, but most of these picks fall within reason.

Eastern Conference:

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (8)

The Flyers may have a self-destructive GM in Chuck Fletcher, he was wise enough to hire a top-level coaching staff that will compensate for his own failings such as overpaid free agents and botched trades in the three-headed monster comprised of Alain Vigneault, Michel Therrien and Mike Yeo, each playing to their strengths. Claude Giroux is still a capable leader, Sean Couturier has become an important first-line player, the wingers are tough, the defense is stingy and Carter Hart in net is showing he can be just as good as Jordan Binnington was last year - except in his case, it's exactly the role he was drafted for and destined to take on.

Hart will face his childhood idol Carey Price, who cried on the ice the last time he faced the Flyers as the #1 guy in the 2008 playoffs, unable to solve R.J. Umberger and out-duelled by Martin Biron. The Habs' Big Three did a number on the Pittsburgh Penguins, but they'll be facing guys who will put their own forwards through the same ordeal, so in that case you have to hand it to the best offense to find a way. The Flyers' defense is also much younger and closer to its prime.

Offense: Flyers
Defense: Flyers
Goaltending: Flyers
Coaching: Flyers
My heart: Canadiens

My pick: Flyers in 6.


Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (7)

It won't exactly be a repeat of last season because it cannot be as quick as last year; the Bolts are prepared for the onslaught the Jackets will bring and spent the first half of the season preparing for just that, losing easy standing points in the process but learning a hard lesson. Tampa still has a recent Norris winner (Victor Hedman), last year's Vezina winner (Andrei Vasilevskyi), and a former Hart and Art Ross winner (Nikita Kucherov) who are sure to play, and a former Rocket Richard winner (Steven Stamkos) who might suit up if the series goes long enough. The high-end talent is definitely there.

But the Jackets have just eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs, the second-best offense in the Conference... behind Tampa's. They crave this match-up. They're ready and warmed up.

Offense: Lightning
Defense: Jackets
Goaltending: Lightning
Coaching: Jackets
My heart: Jackets

My pick: Blue Jackets in 6.

Washington Capitals (3) vs New York Islanders (5)

No one wants to face a Barry Trotz-coached team in the first round, and no one wants to face the New York Islanders under Trotz - especially not a team that has underwhelmed and under-performed in the round robin, has lost important elements on defense since their last postseason and whose best goalie will not play. Granted, that leaves them with Stanley Cup winner Braden Holtby between the pipes, but judging by the past three regular-seasons, he will be walking away as a free agent this off-season and may not find a job as a #1 in his next stop.

The Isles are very disciplined, extremely balanced, and now deeper than ever thanks to the deadline acquisition of proven playoff performer Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

In this type of match-up, one question is important: can Alex Ovechkin beat the Islanders by himself? The answer is "yes", but it's also "he would pretty much have to", considering the Caps' questionable defense and goaltending. You simply cannot count on and expect a Conn Smythe-worthy performance just to get through Round One, it's just unfair.

Offense: Capitals
Defense: Islanders
Goaltending: Islanders
Coaching: Islanders
My heart: Capitals

My pick: Islanders in 7. In the NHL.com Bracket Challenge, I chose the Caps, but for my "public face", I feel I'm being more honest by picking Long Island.

Boston Bruins (4) vs Caroline Hurricanes (5)

Neither of these teams should be here; the Canes should be at home heeding tornado warnings and the Bruins should be facing the weakest team in the Conference, but instead, Boston coasted through the round robin trying their best not to get injured - or get anywhere near the puck, for that matter. The "Perfection Line" of Rocket Richard winner David Pastrnak, four-time Selke winner Patrice Bergeron and rat-faced Brad Marchand failed at pretty much everything they attempted in the three games.

And look, both Bruins goalies - Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak - can outplay their counterparts in their sleep (or in a coma), but the fact of the matter is that James Reimer and Petr Mazarek have played extremely well in sweeping the New York Rangers, and they may not be able to withstand that through two months of play, but it's possible they can do it for another ten days. And that's all they need to get through a lifeless Bruins team.

Offense: Bruins
Defense: Hurricanes
Goaltending: Bruins
Coaching: Bruins
My heart: Bruins

My pick: Hurricanes in 7. I don't want Carolina to win. I hate cheering for the Bruins. This is a no-win for me. But I'd rather no-win via Boston moving on, which means they won't.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Chicago Blackhawks (8)

Although their regular-season standings did not show that, the Golden Knights are not out of place as the first seed in the West; they have a perfect team. I dislike their changing coaches, going from one I like and respect (Gerard Gallant) to one I can't say a good word about (Peter DeBoer) and I feel it was disrespectful to Marc-André Fleury to go with Robin Lehner for two of the three round-robin games, but they're still a heck of a team and while the Hawks do have experience, pedigree, elite-level talent and brand-name recognition, they are nowhere near as deep or balanced as Vegas.

Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: Golden Knights
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: none
My heart: Golden Knights

My pick: Vegas in 5.

 Colorado Avalanche (2) vs Arizona Coyotes (7)

The Avs are just like the Golden Knights: perfect and deep everywhere. Two #1 goalies? Check. The best line in hockey? Check. The league's most valuable player? Check. The best rookie defenseman? Check. A solid top-4 on D that can play for 50 minutes? Check.

Commend the Yotes for beating the Nashville Predators and outplaying them in every facet to an extent where "hey, it's 2020" isn't a good enough excuse to give that core another shot. But these are the Avs. Sure, Colorado has a learning curve to go through, but they'll face hard lessons in the second round, not here.

Offense: Avalanche
Defense: Avalanche
Goaltending: Avalanche
Coaching: Coyotes
My heart: Avalanche

My pick: Avalanche in 4.

Dallas Stars (3) vs Calgary Flames (6)

I love the Dallas Stars.

Let me rephrase that: I love Ben Bishop, who has not suited up for two straight games. The oft-injured Vezina-worthy netminder may not play in this series, and he's Dallas' only hope. The top line of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Alex Radulov has a combined zero (0) points (not goals, points) in the round robin and defenseman Miro Heiskanen is the only point-per-game player on Dallas this postseason. The only other player with more than a single point on the entire roster is 36-year-old Joe Pavelski, who has two goals.

Against the reigning Stanley Cup champions in the final round robin game, the Stars looked like they were skating in slow motion.

The Flames, on the other hand, went through the Winnipeg Jets like a steamroller, going balls-to-the-wall on every shift and injuring two of the Jets' best offensive threats in the process. To repeat against Dallas, they would have to injure... the Zamboni driver and a pizza delivery person, I guess. Calgary's stars are on a mission to have us forget last year's playofs and their former racist head coach; Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan have a playoff reputation to restore, and their defense is still great.

Calgary's not winning the Cup, but they're moving on to the next round.

Offense: Flames
Defense: Flames
Goaltending: Stars
Coaching: Stars
My heart: Flames

My pick: Flames in 5.

St. Louis Blues (4) vs Vancouver Canucks (5)

The reigning champs - like fellow finalists Boston - had a tough round robin. They failed to win a single game and looked disinterested most of the time. Can they find enough passion to wake up for their slumber before the Canucks take too commanding a lead?

My guess is the Blues' experience will shine through in the end, and they'll get into gear as each game passes, slowing down Vancouver's young and talented - albeit thin - legs. If St. Louis' offensive cannons can make some sort of noise, it'll be an added bonus, but by their depth alone and because they're facing a young and inexperienced group and coach, they'll have the best of the series. They'll need more to advance further, however.

Offense: Canucks
Defense: Blues
Goaltending: Canucks
Coaching: Blues
My heart: Canucks

My pick: Blues in 6 or 7.

NHL Playoffs: First Round MVPs

There's still a long ways to go before crowning a Stanley Cup champion and Conn Smythe winner, but here are the players who have stood as the most valuable so far in the first round:

Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets: "Bob", with the help of Seth Jones and a John Tortorella-inspired team effort to out-effort the Tampa Bay Lightning's entire offense, led the Jackets to the biggest upset in NHL history, a sweep of the team who holds the regular-season record for wins (62 in 82 games).

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche: Similarly, the Avs eliminated the top seed in the West in five tiny, measly games, and while Mikko Rantanen also showed poise and scored key goals, and goalie Philip Grubauer held the fort, MacKinnon was the sparkplug that ignited almost every offensive chance and every play that put the Calgary Flames in trouble.

Ben Bishop, Dallas Stars: In another upset, the Stars also eliminated a division champion, with some run support from Alex Radulov. But it was Bishop's multipe 40-save outings and better-than-the-regular-season astonishing stats (1.89 GAA and .945 save percentage with a 4-2 record in the postseason, compared to 1.98 and .934 during the regular season) that outplayed reigning Vezina winner Pekka Rinne in a hard-fought series.

Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins: He played well. No one on the Bruins did anything unexpected. Meh.

Robin Lehner, New York Islanders: The Vezina nominee lept his compure and let the Pittsburgh Penguins shoot in his chest for an entire four-game sweep. The competition will get stiffer, but this is the stage he's been groomed for his entire career to overtake.

Justin Williams, Carolina Hurricanes: Mister Game Seven strikes again. What a tremendous leader. The Canes' captain serves as an inspiration that goes beyond what he does on the ice, yet he still shows up big when it matters the most.

Tomas Hertl, San Jose Sharks: Hertl played like a superstar all series long. He's the only Sharks forward I felt deserved to play past the first round.

Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues: Simply put, the rookie-from-nowhere is in a state of grace, like Cam Ward over a decade ago. Like Ward, his return to earth may very well be in the Andrew Raycroft/Jim Carey spectre, i.e. a huge drop, but for now, he's making it all look very easy.

NHL Playoffs Predictions 2018-19: Round One

Just like last year, the 2018-19 NHL Playoffs will be a tight affair, shock-full of marquee match-ups and perhaps a few upsets. As a matter of fact, I'll be one of the very few who will take ownership of rooting for one in the first round...

Eastern Conference:

Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (WC2):
The Bolts boast the most complete line-up in the NHL. They have a Jack Adams (head coach of the year) candidate in Jon Cooper, a Vezina-level (best goaltender) started in Andrei Vasiljevskiy, the reigning Norris Winner (best defenseman) Victor Hedman, Art Ross (most points) and likely Hart (league MVP) winner Nikita Kucherov up front, and a support cast that includes former New York Rangers captain Ryan McDonagh and future Norris hoarder Mikhail Sergachev on defense, a former 50-goal scorer in Steven Stamkos, as well as Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point and a slew of other steady players that helped Tampa put forth the third-best regular season in NHL history, behind the 1976-77 Montréal Canadiens and 2005-06 Detroit Red Wings.

But the Jackets aren't your usual eight-seed. They played most of the season with a division winner-type of roster that only fell short of that goal because their goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky - the only active goalie with two Vezinas - had a down year. Enough so that Columbus traded for a 1B backup in Keith Kincaid, who faced the Lightning in last year's opening round while with the New Jersey Devils. Not only did they opt to keep free-agent-to-be Bob at the trade deadline, they also kept one of the five best wingers in the game, Artemi Panarin, who is also on an expiring contract, in an attempt to win with them instead of risking not making the playoffs without them. They even went further and added two more forwards - Ryan Dzingel and Matt Duchene - and a defensemen (Adam McQuaid) in exchange for most of their 2019 and some 2020 draft picks. Oh, and the latter three players are also free agents at the end of the year, so they may very well lose all five and have no draft picks of consequence to build with, forcing a premature tank-and-rebuild phase to come.

Mind you, head coach John Tortorella and GM Jarmo Kekalainen fully embrace the gamble. So do I - as long as Duchene isn't a big part of it.

Jackets in 7.


Boston Bruins (2) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (3):
In the same match-up as last year, I will repeat what I said then: "if there was a way to have neither team advance, I would definitely root for that". Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews , John Tavares, William Nylander... sure, the Leafs have talent up front, and Frederik Andersen is a fine netminder, but they have two defensemen good enough to make a dent in the postseason when a contender needs at least four. There's also something in the water in Toronto, because they haven't been to a Final since their 1967 Stanley Cup win despite icing tremendous teams in almost each decade since, apart from the 1980s. Hopefully, they'll never win. Fuck them.

The Bs, on the other hand, have one of the three best lines in hockey, centered by Patrice Bergeron one of the best and most effective centermen in the world, sandwiched between 100-point man (?!?!?!?!) Brad Marchand and super-sniper David Pastrnak. They also have the best goaltending duo in the world in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. If one fails, the other one will rise. Their defense is also coming together very well. They're not good enough to make it past the second round and clearly not deep enough to make a serious run, but they're good and nasty enough to beat the Leafs.

Bruins in 7.


Washington Capitals (1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (WC1):
Ah, the Hurricanes. Or as Don Cherry calls them, the "bunch of jerks". Sure, their post-win "surge" celebrations are fun and sometimes funny, but is it a good enough gimmick to unite an underdog this badly outmatched to will them past the reigning Stanley Cup champions, who boast eight-time 50-goal scorer Alex Ovechkin and a supporting cast of All-Stars like Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom? No. And let's not forget the Caps' John Carlson is now an elite defenseman, having added "defensive play" to his list of qualifications. Braden Holtby is still one of the best Canadian goalies, to.

David versus Goliath? No, a nuclear weapon on a dry wall.

Caps in 4.


New York Islanders (2) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (3):
Did I mention the Caps were the reigning champs? Well, a year ago, their head coach was Barry Trotz, assisted by Lane Lambert and goalie guru Mitch Korn. All three are currently employed by the Isles, whose goaltending tandem went from dead-last (31st) in the NHL last year to 1st overall, with just a switch in coaches. They finished second in their division after not even making it to the Spring Dance last year, despite losing captain and point-per-game superstar John Tavares. I would never want to discount Pittsburgh's chances ever, specially after their two recent Cup wins despite a lackluster defense, but Kris Letang is out with an injury again, and their entire roster is fragile, from captain Sidney Crosby to goalie Matt Murray, sniper Phil Kessel, offensive beast Evgeni Malkin and all the young guns.

Isles in 6.


Western Conference:

Calgary Flames (1) vs Colorado Avalanche (WC2):
The Flames are elite everywhere except between the pipes. Mike Smith will be given the opportunity to start, but playing against the best line in hockey (Nathan MacKinnon, Miko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog) might mean a short post-season for him, as David Rittich is waiting to take his place. I think the Avs take the first game, but Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, Derek Ryan, Michael Frolik, James Neal, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Noah Hanifin and Travis Hamonic will handle games 2 to 5.

Flames in 5.


San Jose Sharks (2) vs Vegas Golden Knights (3):
Remember that thing about the water in Toronto? Well, San Jose must import that water, because they suffer from the same disease of Spring Choking. Marc-André Fleury will shut them down, but if you need more reasons why the Golden Knights are the better team, here they are: head coach Gerard Gallant; the top line of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith; the best second line in the regular season in Paul Stastny, Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty; youngster Alex Tuch; tough guys William Carrier and Ryan Reaves; the defense.

Vegas in 5.


Nashville Predators (1) vs Dallas Stars (WC2):
A team with no glaring weakness, and a defense made up of Roman Josi, Mathias Ekholm, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, Alexei Emelin, Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber with Pekka Rinne behind it would be scary for the opponent even if it didn't have a balanced offense, which the Preds definitely do.

The Stars do have top-end talent up front in Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin and a slumping Jamie Benn, but after that, it's the ghost of Jason Spezza, Mats Zuccarello and a bunch of disappointing middling forwards. Make no mistake - Dallas made it to the playoffs on a Vezina-caliber season from Ben Bishop, and that's it. And unless he's got a hat trick up his sleeve, the Stars' post-season will be a short one.

Preds in 5.


Winnipeg Jets (2) vs St. Louis Blues (3):
The Blues are, essentially, twelve middle-six forwards, six disappointing defensemen who should all be on second pairings and a surprising rookie goaltender called Jordan Binnington, who in almost any other year would get serious Calder (rookie of the year) and Hart (league MVP) votes - but not this year. He will be facing one of the most potent offenses in the league, one of the best defenses, and Vezina-caliber goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Better yet for fans of "Canadian-style hockey", only one of their players is shorter than six feet tall, Mathieu Perreault. Captain Blake Wheeler is 6'5" and 220 pounds; superstar center Mark Scheifele is 6'3" and 210; Patrik Laine is 6'5" and 210; Adam Lowry is 6'5" and 210; Andrew Copp is 6'1" and 210; Kevin Hayes is 6'5" and 216; Kyle Connor is 6'1" and 185; Bryan Little seems tiny at 6'0" and 190; the league's most feared defender Dustin Byfuglien is 6'5" and 260; Tyler Myers is 6'8" and 230 (yep!); Dmitry Kulikov is 6'1" and 205; Jacob Trouba is 6'3" and 205; Ben Chiarot is 6'3" and 220; even Nathan Beaulieu is 6'2" and 200. ALL OF THEM are fast. You don't fail as long as the Jets/Atlanta Thrashers have and not draft a ton of amazing players. They're all in their prime right now.

Jets in 4.

NHL Playoffs Predictions 2017-18: Round One

The first round of the NHL playoffs have a few interesting match-ups this year, including one in which I dislike both teams playing. There are also many regional rivalries, yet just two Canadian teams.

Here's how I think they'll go.

Western Conference:

Nashville Predators (1) vs Colorado Avalanche (WC2):
The best team in the league, one with no glaring weakness, plays a bunch of kids, no defense and a backup goalie. Simply put, the Avs don't stand a chance. They might win one on the strength of MVP candidate Nathan MacKinnon, but a defense made up of Roman Josi, Mathias Ekholm, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, Alexei Emelin, Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber won't let him dominate like he did in the regular season twice in two weeks. And Jonathan Bernier loses the goalie duel to likely Vezina winner Pekka Rinne before the puck even drops.

Nashville in 5.

Winnipeg Jets (2) vs Minnesota Wild (3):
The Jets are no joke. They have one of the most potent offenses in the league, one of the best defenses, and goalie Connor Hellebuyck is two years ahead of my predictions as a star starter. The team itself may not have won a single playoff game in its current iteration (and that includes a decade as the Atlanta Thrashers, by the way), but they have guys who've had the experience of grinding out a Stanley Cup Final in captain Blake Wheeler and the league's most feared defender Dustin Byfuglien. The Wild have... a fine defense, and the league's most consistent goalie of the past four seasons in Devan Dubnyk. Head coach Bruce Boudreau often looks outmatched in the postseason. Dubnyk might steal one, but he can't steal two from these guys, let alone four.

Jets in 5.

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Los Angeles Kings (WC1):
Well, well, well. First off, it looks like the players may indeed have been sick of Darryl Sutter's message, as they bounced back from consecutive postseason misses to face their newest rivals - and the league's biggest surprise. Goalie Jonathan Quick is back to his old self, as is star defenseman Drew Doughty, former captain Dustin Brown is scoring again and Anze Kopitar has posted his best year so far, which will likely earn him a couple of MVP votes. However, the Golden Knights are the better team, way more balanced, better coached, and their net is just as safe with Marc-André Fleury standing between the posts. I could see the Kings playing extremely physically and slowing down the G-Knights, winning a couple of games along the way. This series could cost the Knights a Conference Final, as I see them coming out too battered and bruised to continue much further.

Vegas in 6.

Anaheim Ducks (2) vs San Jose Sharks (3):
If you've read any of these posts from me in the past, you know I trust the Sharks do to one thing right: choke in the postseason. I don't care that they added ball of anger Evander Kane at the trade deadline, he's just one more loser to add to a full stable, effectively taking up Patrick Marleau's spot as the second-line goal scorer who can't carry his team when it needs it. The Ducks have an aggressive and relatively talented defense that will crush San Jose's forwards at every opportunity, and the best goaltending tandem in the postseason in John Gibson and Ryan Miller (although the latter's far removed from his 2009-10 peak form). They also have three lines of 230-pound guys who can score as well as they can decapitate, unless Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler lose their cool, which usually only happens when they lose... which should be starting Game 2 of the second round.

Ducks in 7.

Eastern Conference:

Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs New Jersey Devils (WC2):
Let's make something clear: the Bolts are the second-best team in the league, and the Devils don't belong in the Final 16 - especially not if they're going to start their backup Keith Kincaid over underachieving starter Corey Schneider. Taylor Hall will win the Hart Trophy and might get his team one W, but when the next scorer was 41 points behind him on his team and he's facing a defense comprised of Norris candidate Victor Hedman, former New York Rangers captain Ryan McDonagh and future Norris hoarder Mikhail Sergachev and a bunch of guys who are just as good as he is on offense (Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde), it's going to spell B-E-A-T-D-O-W-N.

Bolts in 5.

Boston Bruins (2) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (3):
If there was a way to have neither team advance, I would definitely root for that. Yes, the Leafs have talent up front in Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and the rest of the kids, and Frederik Andersen is a fine netminder, but the Bs - against all odds - have still "got it". That means Patrice Bergeron remains among the best and most effective centermen in the world and Brad Marchand is still a pest who is as likely of scoring a hat trick as he is to get suspended for three games for a boneheaded move. But Boston now also has David Pastrnak, an offensive talent they have lacked since the 1988-90 heyday of Cam Neely. The Bruins' defense is still very suspect, but the Pittsburgh Penguins have just won two straight Cups with not just a "no-name" defense, but the worst d-corps of the postseason. And, like the Pens of the past couple of years, the Bs are solid in net with Tuukka Rask.

Bruins in 7.

Washington Capitals (1) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (WC1):
This is an unfair match-up, as neither of these teams deserve to be out in the first round; the Jackets are NOT a Wild Card team by any stretch of the imagination. They have a top-tier coach in John Tortorella, the stingiest goalie in the league in Sergei Bobrovsky (in the regular season, at least), the best young defense in the game headlined by Zach Werenski, Seth Jones and Ryan Murray, and a balanced attack that features a superstar with a chip on his shoulder, Artemi Panarin, as well as 35-goal sniper Cam Atkinson. And yet, the Caps managed to win their division with a team that, on paper, was depleted compared to that of years past; Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom are elite forwards, but the defense has lost too many important players to be considered solid, and the team enters the playoffs with their backup, Philipp Grubauer, playing better than their starter, Braden Holtby. The goalie controversy is likely what will once again sink the Caps. I would really like for Ovechkin to get that elusive Cup to shut his critics up, but it won't be this year.

Jackets in 6.

Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs Philadelphia Flyers (3):
Normally, I would call this "Flyers in 7". I would talk about Pittsburgh's shitty defense, their fragile players (chief among them Kris Letang and Sidney Crosby), I would say that the Flyers have a knack for getting under Crosby's skin, and I'd poke fun at them and predict they'll fail, especially against world-class players like Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek. Except that with two back-to-back Cups - both of which came from a wide range of memorable runs from the likes of Fleury, Matt Murray, Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin and the young guns, despite Crosby's two unwarranted Conn Smythe wins - this team has shown it can and will find ways to win. And against this particular Flyers team, the Pens are much better coached (Mike Sullivan trumps Dave Hakstoll any day of the week), and a team cannot hope to contain Pittsburgh with Brian Elliott in net - not four times in a possible seven-game span, anyway. And those are words I would say even if Malkin hadn't been having an MVP-level season, which he is.

Pens in 6.