Red Wings Preview: Lucas Raymond Banner Card

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This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on my personal blog (here) and my collectibles blog, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a couple of weeks, several players haven't found a team yet, (at least) three star players have active trade requests, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much left to do.

Key exits: Patrick Kane (RW), Cam Talbot (G), Travis Hamonic (D), James van Riemsdyk (LW), David Perron (RW), Erik Gustafsson (D), Sebastian Cossa (G)

Key Arrivals: Viktor Arvidsson (LW), Daniil Tarasov (G), Keegan Kolesar (RW), Jacob Bryson (D), Wilmer Skoog (LW/RW)

Top prospects: Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (RW, 20), Trey Augustine (G, 21), J.P. Hurlbert (LW, 19), Carter Bear (LW, 19), Nate Danielson (C, 21), Carter Mazur (LW, 24), Max Plante (LW, 20)

GM Steve Yzerman's failed rebuild stepped down was fired moved on beyond hockey operations just too late to salvage the season at hand, leaving the team without a contract boss two weeks into free agency season, with captain Dylan Larkin requesting a trade out from his hometown team and future #2-3 defender Simon Edvinsson without a contract as a Restricted Free Agent. It is chaos. And it's not like the team was a contender to begin with.

What makes their odds look good:
Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are legitimate top-flight players. Alex DeBrincat is not an accidental 40-goal scorer. I still believe in John Gibson as a 45-to-50-game starting goalie.

Question marks: What if Larkin is better suited as an elite second-line centre? Is Todd McLellan the coach that can bring an underachieving team to the playoffs, instead of underachieving in the playoffs with well-built teams (as he has in the past with the San Jose Sharks, Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings)?

Outlook:
This is a mediocre team - in the true sense of the word, not as a metaphor for "bad"; these players are all probably among the 1,000 best in the world which, factoring in the fact that there are elite players in the Juniors circuit and that the KHL, AHL and European leagues are legitimate pro leagues where players deserve to make a living from the sport, means they are legitimate NHLers. That is not where the problem lies; most of their top prospects are in their 20s and have not broken into the league yet. Drafting, which used to be the team's bread and butter (with their owner's deep pockets), no longer finds Hall Of Famers in the late rounds - heck, they often seem to get outdrafted in the first round by later picks from other teams (which could signal to a development issue as well). While an argument can be made every year that they are on the cusp of breaking out and could finally contend for a playoff wild card spot - and they do usually hang around for nearly half the season - the recipe just isn't working, and instead of fighting to be around 15th overall, they fall closer to 30th. These players chosen by this management to be led by this coaching staff (and the last three...) do not produce a good enough result for where the team was 20-30 years ago; they look a whole lot more like the team from the 1980s, and that's what's scary about it.

Prediction:
8th in the Atlantic Division.

For the third straight season, Raymond has produced around a point per game, but he has also improved defensively, with a Fenwick For above 52% and a plus/minus line that has consistently improved as well, going from -32 to -17 to -12 to -15 to +1 in his five NHL seasons. He also took on a larger role with Team Sweden internationally, going from 4 points in 7 games (bronze medal) and 5 points in 5 games (5th place) at the 2020 and 2021 World Juniors respectively, to 8 points in 8 games (6th place) and 9 points in 10 games (bronze medal) at the 2023 and 2024 World Championships, to 3 points in 3 games (3rd place) and 11 points in 10 games (bronze medal) at the 2025 4 Nations tournament and World Championships respectively, to 9 points in 5 games at the 2026 Olympics and 11 points in 8 games at the 20215 Worlds. He's one of the Detroit Red Wings' best players, in his prime, but at 24 years of age, he might not still be when the team's next solid nucleus reach their peaks.

Here he is on card #BYGS-LR from Upper Deck's 2024-25 SP Game-Used set and Banner Year sub-set:

It shows him wearing the Wings' red (home) uniform from the 2023 Global Series (as attested by the patch on his right pectoral muscle), along with a piece of decorative banner from the event:

NHL Preview 2019-20: Detroit Red Wings

(This year again, I will twin-post with my Collectibles Blog and write about a player who is related to my Preview post here. Today, it's hard-hitting defenseman Niklas Kronwall, who announced his retirement earlier tonight.)

GM: Steve Yzerman (since 2019). 9/10
Coach: Jeff Blashill (since 2015). 5/10

2018-19 record: 32-40-10, 74 points (7th in the Atlantic Division, 14th in the Eastern Conference). Third consecutive season outside the playoff picture.

Departures: Martin Frk (LW), Niklas Kronwall (D), Luke Witkowski (D), Thomas Vanek (RW) Wade Megan (C), and GM Ken Holland.

Arrivals: Valtteri Filppula (C), Patrik Nemeth (D), Calvin Pickard (G) and GM Steve Yzerman, fresh from making the Tampa Bay Lightning perennial contenders.

Top forwards: Dylan Larkin (30 goals, 70-80 points), Andreas Athanasiou (30 goals and 50-60 points), Anthony Mantha (30 goals and 50 points), Tyler Bertuzzi (45-55 points), Michael Rasmussen (30-40 points), Evgeny Svechnikov (30-40 points), Filppula (30 points), Frans Nielsen (30-35 points), Luke Glendening (20 points).

Must-improve forward: Rasmussen is still young and will grow into a regular contributing role, but at this point, you'd have to think Jacob De La Rose can smell he's at a crossroads between a middle-six role, a bottom-three assignment, or going back to Europe. If he keeps insisting on contributing less than 10 points per season and finishing in the minuses, there will be no room for him in the NHL when he reaches the age of 25 in a year and a half.

Top defensemen: Mike Green (30-50 points, depending whether he misses 15 or 35 games), Danny DeKeyser (30-35 points), Filip Hronek (25-35 points), Dennis Cholowski (20-30 points), Trevor Daley (10 points).

Goalies: Jimmy Howard (83/100), Picard (79/100), Jonathan Bernier (79/100).

Top rookies: Taro Hirose (23 years old, LW), Filip Zadina (19, LW/RW), Axel Homstrom (23, LW).

Analysis:
With Niklas Kronwall's retirement, that frees up one space on defense to mold a youngster into an NHLer for when the Wings are ready to aim at the playoffs in two or three years.

Most of the "bad contracts" at the forward position will expire at the end of the 2020-21 season (Darren Helm) or the following year (Nielsen), while those on the back end expire next summer (Green, Jonathan Ericsson, Daley), so the team is in a position to restock on young talent quickly and proceed to better days with the young veteran core of Larkin, Mantha and Bertuzzi already in place, and one hopes Zadina, Rasmussen and/or Svechnikov will also become a star forward, leaving Detroit rich in high-end talent for the better part of the next decade - provided Stevie Y. doesn't go overboard and overpay for these kids.

This will, however, have to happen with a better coach. Maybe Yzerman's waiting for Jon Cooper to be available if/when Tampa chokes in the playoffs again, but he missed out on quality candidates like Alain Vigneault and Joel Quenneville this summer, so you'd have to think the next crop of recyclable coaches will be of lesser quality, probably featuring the likes of Claude Julien, Bruce Boudreau and Peter Laviolette. Then again, Guy Boucher might get the call; refusing to go ahead with the Ottawa Senators' joke of a teardown last year with the only assurance being that he'd be out of a job the following month showed a decent amount of spine and balls.

Prediction: 7th in the Atlantic Division, 27th overall.

NHL Preview 2017-18: Detroit Red Wings

GM: Ken Holland (since 1997). 7.5/10
Coach: Jeff Blashill (since 2015). 5/10

2016-17 record: 33-36-13, 79 points, 25th overall, missing the playoffs for the first time in 26 years.

Departures: Tomas Nosek (LW), and trade deadline bait Steve Ott (RW), Thomas Vanek (RW), and Brendan Smith (D).

Arrivals: Trevor Daley (D), Luke Witkowski (D), and possibly PTO recipients P.-A. Parenteau (RW) and David Booth (RW), who should normally be good for 20 points apiece.

Top forwards: Henrik Zetterberg (it wouldn't be fair to ask the 36-year-old captain for more than 60-65 points even though he did do just that in two of the last three seasons), Anthony Mantha (40-55 points, though he will one day be a perennial 30-goal man in the vein of Keith Tkachuk), Gustav Nyquist (45-55 points), Dylan Larkin (40-45 points), Tomas Tatar (45-60 points), Frans Nielsen (40-50 points), Andreas Athanasiou (20 goals and 40 points).

Must-improve forward: Nyquist has now had two seasons below his near-30-goal usual production. If he doesn't get there this season, it will be fair to say he's slowed down. Larkin must also get over his sophomore slump and regain his All-American form.

Top defensemen: Mike Green (35-40 points), Danny DeKeyser (15-20 points), Daley (15-25 points), Xavier Ouellet (20 points).

Goalies: Jimmy Howard (83/100), Petr Mrazek (76/100).

Top rookies: Evgeny Svechnikov (21 years old, LW, 2015 first-round draft pick), Tyler Bertuzzi (22, LW, had an impact at the AHL level last year), Axel Homstrom (21, LW), Michael Rasmussen (18, C, 2017 first-round draft pick), Dennis Cholowski (19, D, 2016 first-round draft pick).

Analysis:
Yes, the Red Wings are old, their players are often injured and signed for too long, which has hampered them on the free agency circuit for the last two summers and will likely do so next year as well. And it's made Anthanasiou unhappy this summer, although the situation will likely improve when Niklas Kronwall gets put on LTIR when the season starts.

But many Wings fans are overly critical of GM Holland's work, particularly in contrast with that of his former assistants Jim Nill (now GM of the Dallas Stars) and Steve Yzerman (now GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning). The truth is that two years from now, all the bad contracts will be off the books and the exciting young players (Mantha, Ouellet, Bertuzzi, Svechnikov, Rasmussen, Cholowski and Larkin) will all be entering their prime. And I'd go so far as to say all the extensions he gave to in-house players were warranted and in line with the organization's wish to reward players for past achievements and ensuring they remain with the team even into retirement.

This, however, does not excuse the Nielsen overpayment on too long a term. That was a panic move.

Until the kids are ready to take over, however - and likely until the Wings hire a better coach - they will be losing games more often than they win them at their brand-new, state-of-the-art arena.

Prediction: 8th in the Atlantic Division, 28th overall.