Sens Preview: Colin White Jersey Card

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This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Evgenii Dadonov (RW), Ryan Dzingel (F), Artem Anisimov (C), Derek Stepan (C), Marcus Hogberg (G), Joey Daccord (G), Matthew Peca (F)

Key Arrivals: Michael Del Zotto (D), Nick Holden (D), Kole Sherwood (RW)

Top prospects: Shane Pinto (C), Filip Gustavsson (G), Jake Sanderson (D), Jacob Bernard-Docker (D), Tyler Boucher (W), Roby Jarventie (LW), Lassi Thomson (D), Ridley Greig (LW), Tyler Kleven (D), Zack Ostapchuk (LW), Egor Sokolov (RW), Mark Kastelic (C), Maxence Guenette (D)

It would take a lot of things to go right with the development of the Ottawa Senators' young stars for the team to be able to contend for a playoff spot until the end of March... but chances are a lot of them will. Most of the forwards will take a step forward (although Tim Stützle may go through a sophomore slump, particularly if asked to fill the #2 centre role instead of remaining on the wing), and the defense showed during the final month of the 2020-21 season that they were ready for more responsibilities. As a matter of fact, had the Sens received just league average goaltending from Matt Murray in any of his first 10 games, they team would have been a lock for the playoffs, seeing as they fell a single point behind the Montréal Canadiens who were in a tailspin at the end of the season, because of a compressed schedule due to a Covid outbreak.

What makes their odds look good:
Finishing the season with a 10-4 record was impressive, but it may be a mirage, due to teams resting players or being unprepared to face them because they were at the bottom of the standings. Illusion or not, these young players learned to win and can now bank that experience for future use.

Question marks: Can sophomore Josh Norris continue progressing to keep a stranglehold on the #1 centre role? Will Murray bounce back, or has he simply lost his way? How many games will Brady Tkachuk miss as a contract holdout, and will it cost him the captaincy (I, for one, would give it to Thomas Chabot at this point, who has bought into what the team is looking to build by signing the eight-year deal that GM Pierre Dorion hopes to build other contracts around)?

Outlook:
This team will be a powerhouse three years from now, it's just a matter of gaining more experience, some of the current contenders taking a step back, and Tkachuk deciding if he wants in or if he'll conspire with brother Matthew to eventually land with the St. Louis Blues together.

Prediction:
Tied for 4th in the Atlantic Division, with the Boston Bruins and Habs.

One key player in the Sens' rebuild had been Colin White, a 2015 first-round pick (21st overall) who plays well in all three zones, once thought to be the team's next first-line pivot (which is why he was given a six-year deal averaging $4.75M after a strong rookie season in 2019) but who can go up and down the lineup without hurting the team while amassing anywhere between 25 and 45 points, perhaps with a peak of 60.

Unfortunately, he will miss the entire 2021-22 season after falling awkwardly and dislocating his right shoulder in a pre-season game.

The good news for the Sens is the Canadiens and Bruins also have plenty of injury troubles to start the season, as do the Pittsburgh Penguins who will be competing for the same Wild Card playoff spot - and Ottawa has the most depth and best prospects of the lot.

Here is White, wearing the Senators' white (away) uniform from a few years ago, on card #DD-CW from Upper Deck's 2017-18 Black Diamond collection and Diamond Debut Relics sub-set:

It features a matching white swatch from a photo shoot.

NHL Preview 2019-20: Ottawa Senators

(This year again, I will twin-post with my Collectibles Blog and write about a player who is related to my Preview post here. Today, it's Ottawa Senators alternate captain Mark Borowiecki).

GM: Pierre Dorion (since 2016). 7.5/10
Coach: D.J. Smith (since 2019). 6.5/10

2018-19 record: 29-47-6, 64 points (eighth in the Atlantic Division, 16th in the Eastern Conference).
Playoffs: Did not qualify.

Departures: Mark Stone (RW), Erik Karlsson (D), Matt Duchene (C), Ryan Dzingel (LW), Cody Ceci (D), Zack Smith (F), Ben Harpur (D), Brian Gibbons (LW), Oscar Lindberg (C), Aaron Luchuk (C).

Arrivals: Ron Hainsey (D), Nikita Zaitsev (D), Connor Brown (RW), Tyler Ennis (RW), Artem Anisimov (C), Ryan Callahan (RW), Michael Carcone (LW).

Top forwards: Brady Tkachuk (45-60 points), Colin White (45-60 points), Chris Tierney (40-50 points), Artem Anisimov (30-40 points), Connor Brown (35-40 points), Bobby Ryan (35-50 points), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (45-60 points), Mikkel Boedker (20-30 points), Anthony Duclair (30-45 points), Tyler Ennis (15-25 points).

Must-improve forwards: Duclair finished the 2018-19 season on a high note, scoring 8 goals and adding 6 assists for 14 points in 21 games. He's on the verge of putting it all together, and he may now understand what Columbus Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella meant when he announced in a press conference that Duclair's parents would likely be watching that their son wasn't going to suit up that night against the Montréal Canadiens because he "(wasn't) sure he knows how to play". The Duke has the kind of talent that produces 60-point seasons and maybe an All-Star Game or two in a 12-year career, if that talent stays within the confines of a system that minimizes defensive risk. Because for all the talent he has, most teams have three defensemen that are good enough to counter it and two or three forwards that are perhaps even more talented, so he cannot think that by scoring 30 goals, he'll bring 30 wins to his team by himself; scoring against the Piuttsburgh Penguins means very little if Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby also score on the other end.

Top defensemen: Thomas Chabot (60-75 points), Ron Hainsey (15-25 points), Mark Borowiecki (10 points), Nikita Zaitsev (20-35 points), Dylan DeMelo (5-10 points).

Goalies: Craig Anderson (86/100), Anders Nilsson (78/100).

Top rookies: Erik Brannstrom (20, D), Lassi Thomson (18, D), Christian Wolanin (24 years old, D), Max Veronneau (23, RW), Drake Batherson (21, C), Christian Jaros (23, D), Logan Brown (21, C, 2016 first-round pick).

Analysis:
There certainly is a lot of talent on this roster, but things would have to gel amazingly well for them to not finish last in a strong Atlantic Division. I don't know much about new head coach D.J. Smith, but I know he used to play for and coach the Toronto Maple Leafs, so I'm not overly confident there.

It's hard to believe this team was two years removed from a Conference Final, had the best defenseman in the game, two 60-point centres and possibly four 30-goal wingers and now has a bunch of guys in their early 20s trying to find their way onto a roster spot with their third coach in six months.

I think we'll start to see the fruits of that rebuild in two or three years and that they'll be good for a decade - unless the current trend of RFAs wanting superstar money when they haven't reached their prime yet continues, in which case this team will implode before they're even ready to get going. I'd love to be an NHL GM, it's possibly the job I would best excel at (well, that and goalie-specific scout), but I do not envy Pierre Dorion in the least. He's got a losing proposition waiting for him at every turn, although he's come out of the ones he's faced somewhat unscathed so far, but it's only going to get harder from here. He's got 30 vultures disguised as colleagues circling him, pretending to be his friend, waiting for him to slip so they can fleece him and buy low on his high-quality talent but limited financial means. A number that will soon increase, too.

If any current GM can do it or come close, it's him. Very little seems to phase him. Good luck!

Prediction: 8th in the Atlantic Division, 30th in the NHL.

NHL Preview 2017-18: Ottawa Senators

GM: Pierre Dorion (since 2016). 8/10
Coach: Guy Boucher (since 2016). 8.5/10

2016-17 record: 44-28-10, 98 points, 12th overall, Eastern Conference finalists.

Departures: Marc Methot (D), Chris Neil (RW), Viktor Stalberg (LW), Tommy Wingels (LW).

Arrivals: Johnny Oduya (D), Erik Bergdoerfer (D), Nate Thompson (C).

Top forwards: Mark Stone (60-65 points), Mike Hoffman (60-65 points), Kyle Turris (55-65 points), Derick Brassard (50-60 points), Bobby Ryan (40-55 points), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (35-45 points), Alexandre Burrows (30-40 points), Ryan Dzingel (30-35 points), Zack Smith (30-35 points).

Must-improve forwards: Burrows' production took off when he joined the Sens, so hopefully he keeps that going and puts the last few seasons in Vancouver behind him. Ryan and Pageau both had terrific playoffs that bode well for the upcoming season.

Top defensemen: Erik Karlsson (70-85 points), Dion Phaneuf (30-35 points), Cody Ceci (20-25 points), Fredrik Claesson (20-25 points), Chris Wideman (15-20 points).

Goalies: Craig Anderson (86/100), Mike Condon (79/100).

Top rookies: Thomas Chabot (20 years old, D, 2015 first-round pick), Colin White (20, C, 2015 first-round pick), Andreas Englund (21, D), Filip Chlapik (20, C), Logan Brown (19, C, 2016 first-round pick).

Analysis:
The Hockey News didn't just invent that Karlsson should be in the same conversation as Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby for the title of World's Best Player - he proved it by being the best player in the postseason last year despite playing on a broken foot. Any roster with Karlsson leading the play has a chance to win the game on any given night.

Add to that last season's Cinderella story, Anderson in net, who has been rock-solid since coming over to the Sens during the 2010-11 season.

Then add three potential (and past) 30-goal scorers on the wing in Stone, Hoffman and Ryan (Clarke MacArthur would have been a fourth, but post-concussion syndrome will probably keep him out of hockey for the time being) and two 60-point centers in Turris and Brassard, and you've got yourself one of the most balanced top-six units in the league, let alone the East.

And that's not factoring in Pageau's development, he of the 4-goal night in the second round last Spring. And Dzingel and Smith by his side. And an effective shut-down unit comprised of Thompson and Tom Pyatt. And a head coach (Boucher) who specializes in defensive systems and has a degree in psychology to tear his opponents apart. Oh, and his assistant, Marc Crawford, is a former Stanley Cup-winning head coach (1996, Colorado Avalanche).

Yeah, these Sens are for real. (At least until Anderson's retirement).

Prediction: 2nd in the Atlantic Division.