Coach: Mike Sullivan (since 2015). 8/10
2018-19 record: 44-26-12, 100 points (3rd in the Metropolitan Division, sixth in the Eastern Conference).
Playoffs: Swept in four games by the New York Islanders in the first round.
Departures: Phil Kessel (RW), Matt Cullen (C), Nick Bonino (C), Olli Maata (D).
Arrivals: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (D), Alex Galchenyuk (C/LW), Dominik Kahun (RW), Brandon Tanev (LW/RW).
Top forwards: Sidney Crosby (80-95 points), Evgeni Malkin (80-90 points), Jake Guentzel (60-70 points), Alex Galchenyuk (50-60 points), Nick Bjugstad (35-40 points), Patric Hornqvist (35-40 points), Bryan Rust (25-30 points), Brandon Tanev (25-30 points), Jared McCann (25-30 points).
Must-improve forwards: Hornqvist may have slowed down due to injury (mostly a huge concussion), so that's not his fault and likely cannot be repaired. Bjugstad, however, could stand to become the 50-60-point producer he was made out to be when the Florida Panthers drafted him. And it's as good a time as any for Galchenyuk to hit the 30-goal mark again, what with likely lining up with Malkin and reaching free agency in the summer.
Top defensemen: Kristopher Letang (55-70 points), Justin Schultz (30-35 points), Erik Gudbranson (20-25 points), Brian Dumoulin (20-25 points), Jack Johnson (15-20 points).
Goalies: Matt Murray (92/100), Casey DeSmith (76/100), Tristan Jarry (75/100).
Top prospects: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (20 years old, D), Emil Larmi (23, G), Nathan Légaré (18, RW), Calen Addison (19, D), Kasper Bjorkqvist (22, RW), Samuel Poulin (18, W), Jordy Bellerive (20, C).
Analysis:
I'm one of those who sees value in having a rough, no-nonsense guy like Gudbranson on a shut-down defensive pairing, so I won't hold that against GM Rutherford, the fact that more than a third of his team's cap hit ($28M) is allocated to ten (!!) defensemen. Back when they were winning Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017, their defense was a joke, now it can at least defend.
Schultz is proving that his 51-point season in 2016-17 was an outlier and that we should expect some 30-35 points on his part if he plays the 60-65 games the injuries will let him suit up for, and no more than 40 if he goes a full season. And that's where having good defenders comes in handy.
Up front, Crosby can turn any player who can keep up with him into a 35-40-goal player, and the winger "du jour" is Guentzel, so good for him. Now Malkin can do the same with Galchenyuk. It really was a regrettable luxury to have to put a star like Kessel on the third line because he didn't get along with 87 or 71 - he still put up upwards of 80 points with plugs and defensively-minded players, but you can't have that in the cap era.
So, yeah, the Pens are aging, they haven't made any significant improvements and most of the other teams in their division have gotten much better. The window is closing, slowly but surely, yet with big-game players like Malkin, Letang, Murray and even Crosby (I don't buy into his narrative as much, if you can't tell, I'm more of the opinion that while he's very good, a lot of the hype was created by the media), said window remains open as long as they can carry the team on their shoulders.
Prediction: 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, 14th in the NHL.Unless the Columbus Blue Jackets get themselves an NHL #1 goalie before the Holidays, then they leapfrog five teams including the Pens.
