Coach: Mike Babcock (since 2015). 8/10
2018-19 record: 46-28-8, 100 points (3rd in the Atlantic Division, 5th in the Eastern Conference).
Playoffs: Eliminated in seven games in Round 1 by the Boston Bruins
Departures: Patrick Marleau (F), Ron Hainsey (D), Nikita Zaitsev (D), Jake Gardiner (D), Nazem Kadri (C), Connor Brown (RW), Garrett Sparks (G), Josh Jooris (RW), Tyler Ennis (RW), Calle Rosen (D).
Arrivals: Tyson Barrie (D), Alexander Kerfoot (C), Jason Spezza (C), Pontus Aberg (LW), Cody Ceci (D), Kenny Agostino (F), Jordan Schmaltz (D).
Top forwards: Auston Matthews (80-90 points), John Tavares (75-90 points), Mitch Marner (75-90 points), William Nylander (60-65 points), Andreas Johnsson (50-65 points), Kasperi Kapanen (50-60 points), Alexander Kerfoot (40-45 points), Pontus Aberg (30-40 points), Connor Brown (35-40 points), Zach Hyman (30-35 points), Spezza (30-35 points).
Must-improve forward: In 2016, Aberg looked like he would be on the Nashville Predators' second line for his entire career, with a point totals forecast between 40 and 60 for the duration of it - until he hit a wall. Now 25 years old and on his fifth NHL team in a year and a half, he's just trying to stick to a roster.
Top defensemen: Morgan Reilly (55-60 points), Tyson Barrie (55-60 points), Cody Ceci (20-25 points), Jake Muzzin (10-15 points), Ben Harpur (10-15 points), Martin Marincin (10 points).
Goalies: Frederik Andersen (84/100), Michael Hutchinson (73/100).
Top prospects: Travis Dermott (22 years old, D, 2015 second-round draft pick who will spend the year on LTIR), Nicholas Robertson (18, LW, 2019 second-round draft pick), Jeremy Bracco (22, RW), Semyon Der-Arguchintsev (19, C), Rasmus Sandin (19, D, 2018 first-rounder), Timothy Liljegren (20, D, 2017 first-rounder).
Analysis:
So, all this time rebuilding and their "win-now" window is... this season. That's right, come summertime, they're likely to lose their new #1 defenseman Barrie to free agency, their current #4 Ceci and will be cap-strapped so the Nylander trade will finally happen.
This after re-hauling half their roster this summer..
And Dubas has to juggle all that - and his poor contract negotiations leading to overpay on his top four forwards - while keeping a smarter, more experienced and better-connected Babcock happy. Keep in mind, Dubas is analytics-minded and Babcock is so old school he prefers to have an equal number of left- and right-handed defensemen on the ice, pretty much regardless of overall roster. He's even kept an All-Star off the ice at the Olympics for being the fourth-best right-hander on the team, despite his also being the fourth-best defender on it.
One thing working in Dubas' favour is the fact that Babcock has already made most of the actual money on his $80M contract and probably wouldn't have any trouble finding employment elsewhere, so the split may even be amicable.
Oh, and in purely hockey-related terms as to why the Leafs won't win the Stanley Cup this year (meaning, other than "1967" and "it's in the water"): despite the addition of Spezza, there are too many egos on the team and not enough leadership; too many defensively-minded defensemen, not enough guys who can move the play forward from their own end; Freddie Andersen's an ok #1 goalie, above-average, but far from the elite-level legend the Toronto media make him out to be. He's not even an afterthought when I make lists of my "true" best goalies list - he was my #10 last year. Seeing him any higher will set you up for major disappointment.
Prediction: 2nd in the Atlantic Division, 5th overall, but another early playoff exit.
