NHL Playoffs Predictions 2018-19: Round Two

Three out of five, and oh-so-close to being 4/4 or 5/3... I'm talking about my First Round report card, of course.

Round two has only two of the 16 top point producers of the regular season, and no division winners. As a matter of fact, 7 of the top 10 regular-season teams are now eliminated.

In the first round alone, the 2019 playoffs had as many games go into overtime (10) and series go to seven games (3) as the entire 2018 playoffs.

Eastern Conference:

Boston Bruins (2) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (WC2):
The Jackets took care of the might Bolts in four straight games on the strength of the league's best motivator/manipulatir behind the bench in head coach John Tortorella, a stingy defense led by Seth Jones, Zach Werenski and David Savard, who is cementing his place among the best shut-down defenders in the league. Sergei Bobrovsky - whom I repeat is the only active goalie with two Vezinas - took care of the rest and perhaps chased away his playoff demons.

The Bs, as expected, needed seven games to get rid of the Leafs. They might win the first two via adrenaline, but the Jackets are essentially the same team, just younger, fresher and perhaps even tougher. Boston won't get intimidated by Columbus like Tampa did, but they might run out of breath by next Tuesday.

Jackets in 6.


New York Islanders (2) vs Carolina Hurricanes (WC1):
The "bunch of jerks" will meet their match in the Isles. many were surprised when the Boys From Long Island disposed of swept the Pens, but let's not forget they weren't the underdogs, they'd actually finished ahead of Pittsburgh and second in the Metropolitan Division. Robin Lehner's still playing like a Vezina candidate, he can handle Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. The Isles just need to finish this one in 6 games or less; Justin Williams would be troublesome in a Game Seven.

Isles in 5.



Western Conference:

San Jose Sharks (2) vs Colorado Avalanche (WC2):
Seriously, Sharks, no. In a Game 7 when he should have stopped the Golden Knights cold after his team scored four straight powerplay goals to reverse a 3-0 deficit in the third period, Martin Jones showed his teammates and the entire world that he was going to buck under pressure. Don't get me wrong, the Avs will feel like every round will get harder and every adversary will get better - because they will. But they can beat San Jose with their top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Miko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, and Philipp Grubauer is showing some serious poise behind the pipes to help out on the back end.



Make no mistake - the Sharks didn't beat the Golden Knights in the first round; they beat a lazy Max Pacioretty with the help of referees who did their jobs so badly that they were themselves excluded from the second round. It was as if they'd gambled on the game and needed to influence it, so they gave Vegas a 21-minute disadvantage, including the late five-minute major on something taht was at most a minor penalty.

Avs in 7.


St. Louis Blues (3) vs Dallas Stars (WC2):
The Stars will need Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Mats Zuccarello to just throw everything and the kitchen sink at the hottest goalie on the planet, Jordan Binnington. He's stopping everything, at a 96% clip, meaning Dallas will need to pepper him with 60 shots per game, every game to wear him down and tear holes through his armor, and to trust Ben Bishop will take care of things in their own end. And barring another postseason injury, he will - he's having Conn Smythe-caliber playoffs himself, after all. The Blues have no business playing in May this year, they need to be brought down to earth (and will be, whether it's now or in the next round).

Stars in 7.

NHL Playoffs: First Round MVPs

There's still a long ways to go before crowning a Stanley Cup champion and Conn Smythe winner, but here are the players who have stood as the most valuable so far in the first round:

Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets: "Bob", with the help of Seth Jones and a John Tortorella-inspired team effort to out-effort the Tampa Bay Lightning's entire offense, led the Jackets to the biggest upset in NHL history, a sweep of the team who holds the regular-season record for wins (62 in 82 games).

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche: Similarly, the Avs eliminated the top seed in the West in five tiny, measly games, and while Mikko Rantanen also showed poise and scored key goals, and goalie Philip Grubauer held the fort, MacKinnon was the sparkplug that ignited almost every offensive chance and every play that put the Calgary Flames in trouble.

Ben Bishop, Dallas Stars: In another upset, the Stars also eliminated a division champion, with some run support from Alex Radulov. But it was Bishop's multipe 40-save outings and better-than-the-regular-season astonishing stats (1.89 GAA and .945 save percentage with a 4-2 record in the postseason, compared to 1.98 and .934 during the regular season) that outplayed reigning Vezina winner Pekka Rinne in a hard-fought series.

Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins: He played well. No one on the Bruins did anything unexpected. Meh.

Robin Lehner, New York Islanders: The Vezina nominee lept his compure and let the Pittsburgh Penguins shoot in his chest for an entire four-game sweep. The competition will get stiffer, but this is the stage he's been groomed for his entire career to overtake.

Justin Williams, Carolina Hurricanes: Mister Game Seven strikes again. What a tremendous leader. The Canes' captain serves as an inspiration that goes beyond what he does on the ice, yet he still shows up big when it matters the most.

Tomas Hertl, San Jose Sharks: Hertl played like a superstar all series long. He's the only Sharks forward I felt deserved to play past the first round.

Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues: Simply put, the rookie-from-nowhere is in a state of grace, like Cam Ward over a decade ago. Like Ward, his return to earth may very well be in the Andrew Raycroft/Jim Carey spectre, i.e. a huge drop, but for now, he's making it all look very easy.

NHL Playoffs Predictions 2018-19: Round One

Just like last year, the 2018-19 NHL Playoffs will be a tight affair, shock-full of marquee match-ups and perhaps a few upsets. As a matter of fact, I'll be one of the very few who will take ownership of rooting for one in the first round...

Eastern Conference:

Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (WC2):
The Bolts boast the most complete line-up in the NHL. They have a Jack Adams (head coach of the year) candidate in Jon Cooper, a Vezina-level (best goaltender) started in Andrei Vasiljevskiy, the reigning Norris Winner (best defenseman) Victor Hedman, Art Ross (most points) and likely Hart (league MVP) winner Nikita Kucherov up front, and a support cast that includes former New York Rangers captain Ryan McDonagh and future Norris hoarder Mikhail Sergachev on defense, a former 50-goal scorer in Steven Stamkos, as well as Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point and a slew of other steady players that helped Tampa put forth the third-best regular season in NHL history, behind the 1976-77 Montréal Canadiens and 2005-06 Detroit Red Wings.

But the Jackets aren't your usual eight-seed. They played most of the season with a division winner-type of roster that only fell short of that goal because their goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky - the only active goalie with two Vezinas - had a down year. Enough so that Columbus traded for a 1B backup in Keith Kincaid, who faced the Lightning in last year's opening round while with the New Jersey Devils. Not only did they opt to keep free-agent-to-be Bob at the trade deadline, they also kept one of the five best wingers in the game, Artemi Panarin, who is also on an expiring contract, in an attempt to win with them instead of risking not making the playoffs without them. They even went further and added two more forwards - Ryan Dzingel and Matt Duchene - and a defensemen (Adam McQuaid) in exchange for most of their 2019 and some 2020 draft picks. Oh, and the latter three players are also free agents at the end of the year, so they may very well lose all five and have no draft picks of consequence to build with, forcing a premature tank-and-rebuild phase to come.

Mind you, head coach John Tortorella and GM Jarmo Kekalainen fully embrace the gamble. So do I - as long as Duchene isn't a big part of it.

Jackets in 7.


Boston Bruins (2) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (3):
In the same match-up as last year, I will repeat what I said then: "if there was a way to have neither team advance, I would definitely root for that". Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews , John Tavares, William Nylander... sure, the Leafs have talent up front, and Frederik Andersen is a fine netminder, but they have two defensemen good enough to make a dent in the postseason when a contender needs at least four. There's also something in the water in Toronto, because they haven't been to a Final since their 1967 Stanley Cup win despite icing tremendous teams in almost each decade since, apart from the 1980s. Hopefully, they'll never win. Fuck them.

The Bs, on the other hand, have one of the three best lines in hockey, centered by Patrice Bergeron one of the best and most effective centermen in the world, sandwiched between 100-point man (?!?!?!?!) Brad Marchand and super-sniper David Pastrnak. They also have the best goaltending duo in the world in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. If one fails, the other one will rise. Their defense is also coming together very well. They're not good enough to make it past the second round and clearly not deep enough to make a serious run, but they're good and nasty enough to beat the Leafs.

Bruins in 7.


Washington Capitals (1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (WC1):
Ah, the Hurricanes. Or as Don Cherry calls them, the "bunch of jerks". Sure, their post-win "surge" celebrations are fun and sometimes funny, but is it a good enough gimmick to unite an underdog this badly outmatched to will them past the reigning Stanley Cup champions, who boast eight-time 50-goal scorer Alex Ovechkin and a supporting cast of All-Stars like Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom? No. And let's not forget the Caps' John Carlson is now an elite defenseman, having added "defensive play" to his list of qualifications. Braden Holtby is still one of the best Canadian goalies, to.

David versus Goliath? No, a nuclear weapon on a dry wall.

Caps in 4.


New York Islanders (2) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (3):
Did I mention the Caps were the reigning champs? Well, a year ago, their head coach was Barry Trotz, assisted by Lane Lambert and goalie guru Mitch Korn. All three are currently employed by the Isles, whose goaltending tandem went from dead-last (31st) in the NHL last year to 1st overall, with just a switch in coaches. They finished second in their division after not even making it to the Spring Dance last year, despite losing captain and point-per-game superstar John Tavares. I would never want to discount Pittsburgh's chances ever, specially after their two recent Cup wins despite a lackluster defense, but Kris Letang is out with an injury again, and their entire roster is fragile, from captain Sidney Crosby to goalie Matt Murray, sniper Phil Kessel, offensive beast Evgeni Malkin and all the young guns.

Isles in 6.


Western Conference:

Calgary Flames (1) vs Colorado Avalanche (WC2):
The Flames are elite everywhere except between the pipes. Mike Smith will be given the opportunity to start, but playing against the best line in hockey (Nathan MacKinnon, Miko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog) might mean a short post-season for him, as David Rittich is waiting to take his place. I think the Avs take the first game, but Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, Derek Ryan, Michael Frolik, James Neal, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Noah Hanifin and Travis Hamonic will handle games 2 to 5.

Flames in 5.


San Jose Sharks (2) vs Vegas Golden Knights (3):
Remember that thing about the water in Toronto? Well, San Jose must import that water, because they suffer from the same disease of Spring Choking. Marc-André Fleury will shut them down, but if you need more reasons why the Golden Knights are the better team, here they are: head coach Gerard Gallant; the top line of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith; the best second line in the regular season in Paul Stastny, Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty; youngster Alex Tuch; tough guys William Carrier and Ryan Reaves; the defense.

Vegas in 5.


Nashville Predators (1) vs Dallas Stars (WC2):
A team with no glaring weakness, and a defense made up of Roman Josi, Mathias Ekholm, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, Alexei Emelin, Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber with Pekka Rinne behind it would be scary for the opponent even if it didn't have a balanced offense, which the Preds definitely do.

The Stars do have top-end talent up front in Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin and a slumping Jamie Benn, but after that, it's the ghost of Jason Spezza, Mats Zuccarello and a bunch of disappointing middling forwards. Make no mistake - Dallas made it to the playoffs on a Vezina-caliber season from Ben Bishop, and that's it. And unless he's got a hat trick up his sleeve, the Stars' post-season will be a short one.

Preds in 5.


Winnipeg Jets (2) vs St. Louis Blues (3):
The Blues are, essentially, twelve middle-six forwards, six disappointing defensemen who should all be on second pairings and a surprising rookie goaltender called Jordan Binnington, who in almost any other year would get serious Calder (rookie of the year) and Hart (league MVP) votes - but not this year. He will be facing one of the most potent offenses in the league, one of the best defenses, and Vezina-caliber goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Better yet for fans of "Canadian-style hockey", only one of their players is shorter than six feet tall, Mathieu Perreault. Captain Blake Wheeler is 6'5" and 220 pounds; superstar center Mark Scheifele is 6'3" and 210; Patrik Laine is 6'5" and 210; Adam Lowry is 6'5" and 210; Andrew Copp is 6'1" and 210; Kevin Hayes is 6'5" and 216; Kyle Connor is 6'1" and 185; Bryan Little seems tiny at 6'0" and 190; the league's most feared defender Dustin Byfuglien is 6'5" and 260; Tyler Myers is 6'8" and 230 (yep!); Dmitry Kulikov is 6'1" and 205; Jacob Trouba is 6'3" and 205; Ben Chiarot is 6'3" and 220; even Nathan Beaulieu is 6'2" and 200. ALL OF THEM are fast. You don't fail as long as the Jets/Atlanta Thrashers have and not draft a ton of amazing players. They're all in their prime right now.

Jets in 4.