Wednesday, April 10, 2019

NHL Playoffs Predictions 2018-19: Round One


Just like last year, the 2018-19 NHL Playoffs will be a tight affair, shock-full of marquee match-ups and perhaps a few upsets. As a matter of fact, I'll be one of the very few who will take ownership of rooting for one in the first round...

Eastern Conference:

Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs Columbus Blue Jackets (WC2):
The Bolts boast the most complete line-up in the NHL. They have a Jack Adams (head coach of the year) candidate in Jon Cooper, a Vezina-level (best goaltender) started in Andrei Vasiljevskiy, the reigning Norris Winner (best defenseman) Victor Hedman, Art Ross (most points) and likely Hart (league MVP) winner Nikita Kucherov up front, and a support cast that includes former New York Rangers captain Ryan McDonagh and future Norris hoarder Mikhail Sergachev on defense, a former 50-goal scorer in Steven Stamkos, as well as Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point and a slew of other steady players that helped Tampa put forth the third-best regular season in NHL history, behind the 1976-77 Montréal Canadiens and 2005-06 Detroit Red Wings.

But the Jackets aren't your usual eight-seed. They played most of the season with a division winner-type of roster that only fell short of that goal because their goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky - the only active goalie with two Vezinas - had a down year. Enough so that Columbus traded for a 1B backup in Keith Kincaid, who faced the Lightning in last year's opening round while with the New Jersey Devils. Not only did they opt to keep free-agent-to-be Bob at the trade deadline, they also kept one of the five best wingers in the game, Artemi Panarin, who is also on an expiring contract, in an attempt to win with them instead of risking not making the playoffs without them. They even went further and added two more forwards - Ryan Dzingel and Matt Duchene - and a defensemen (Adam McQuaid) in exchange for most of their 2019 and some 2020 draft picks. Oh, and the latter three players are also free agents at the end of the year, so they may very well lose all five and have no draft picks of consequence to build with, forcing a premature tank-and-rebuild phase to come.

Mind you, head coach John Tortorella and GM Jarmo Kekalainen fully embrace the gamble. So do I - as long as Duchene isn't a big part of it.

Jackets in 7.


Boston Bruins (2) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (3):
In the same match-up as last year, I will repeat what I said then: "if there was a way to have neither team advance, I would definitely root for that". Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews , John Tavares, William Nylander... sure, the Leafs have talent up front, and Frederik Andersen is a fine netminder, but they have two defensemen good enough to make a dent in the postseason when a contender needs at least four. There's also something in the water in Toronto, because they haven't been to a Final since their 1967 Stanley Cup win despite icing tremendous teams in almost each decade since, apart from the 1980s. Hopefully, they'll never win. Fuck them.

The Bs, on the other hand, have one of the three best lines in hockey, centered by Patrice Bergeron one of the best and most effective centermen in the world, sandwiched between 100-point man (?!?!?!?!) Brad Marchand and super-sniper David Pastrnak. They also have the best goaltending duo in the world in Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. If one fails, the other one will rise. Their defense is also coming together very well. They're not good enough to make it past the second round and clearly not deep enough to make a serious run, but they're good and nasty enough to beat the Leafs.

Bruins in 7.


Washington Capitals (1) vs Carolina Hurricanes (WC1):
Ah, the Hurricanes. Or as Don Cherry calls them, the "bunch of jerks". Sure, their post-win "surge" celebrations are fun and sometimes funny, but is it a good enough gimmick to unite an underdog this badly outmatched to will them past the reigning Stanley Cup champions, who boast eight-time 50-goal scorer Alex Ovechkin and a supporting cast of All-Stars like Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom? No. And let's not forget the Caps' John Carlson is now an elite defenseman, having added "defensive play" to his list of qualifications. Braden Holtby is still one of the best Canadian goalies, to.

David versus Goliath? No, a nuclear weapon on a dry wall.

Caps in 4.


New York Islanders (2) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (3):
Did I mention the Caps were the reigning champs? Well, a year ago, their head coach was Barry Trotz, assisted by Lane Lambert and goalie guru Mitch Korn. All three are currently employed by the Isles, whose goaltending tandem went from dead-last (31st) in the NHL last year to 1st overall, with just a switch in coaches. They finished second in their division after not even making it to the Spring Dance last year, despite losing captain and point-per-game superstar John Tavares. I would never want to discount Pittsburgh's chances ever, specially after their two recent Cup wins despite a lackluster defense, but Kris Letang is out with an injury again, and their entire roster is fragile, from captain Sidney Crosby to goalie Matt Murray, sniper Phil Kessel, offensive beast Evgeni Malkin and all the young guns.

Isles in 6.


Western Conference:

Calgary Flames (1) vs Colorado Avalanche (WC2):
The Flames are elite everywhere except between the pipes. Mike Smith will be given the opportunity to start, but playing against the best line in hockey (Nathan MacKinnon, Miko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog) might mean a short post-season for him, as David Rittich is waiting to take his place. I think the Avs take the first game, but Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, Derek Ryan, Michael Frolik, James Neal, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Noah Hanifin and Travis Hamonic will handle games 2 to 5.

Flames in 5.


San Jose Sharks (2) vs Vegas Golden Knights (3):
Remember that thing about the water in Toronto? Well, San Jose must import that water, because they suffer from the same disease of Spring Choking. Marc-André Fleury will shut them down, but if you need more reasons why the Golden Knights are the better team, here they are: head coach Gerard Gallant; the top line of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and Reilly Smith; the best second line in the regular season in Paul Stastny, Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty; youngster Alex Tuch; tough guys William Carrier and Ryan Reaves; the defense.

Vegas in 5.


Nashville Predators (1) vs Dallas Stars (WC2):
A team with no glaring weakness, and a defense made up of Roman Josi, Mathias Ekholm, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, Alexei Emelin, Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber with Pekka Rinne behind it would be scary for the opponent even if it didn't have a balanced offense, which the Preds definitely do.

The Stars do have top-end talent up front in Alexander Radulov, Tyler Seguin and a slumping Jamie Benn, but after that, it's the ghost of Jason Spezza, Mats Zuccarello and a bunch of disappointing middling forwards. Make no mistake - Dallas made it to the playoffs on a Vezina-caliber season from Ben Bishop, and that's it. And unless he's got a hat trick up his sleeve, the Stars' post-season will be a short one.

Preds in 5.


Winnipeg Jets (2) vs St. Louis Blues (3):
The Blues are, essentially, twelve middle-six forwards, six disappointing defensemen who should all be on second pairings and a surprising rookie goaltender called Jordan Binnington, who in almost any other year would get serious Calder (rookie of the year) and Hart (league MVP) votes - but not this year. He will be facing one of the most potent offenses in the league, one of the best defenses, and Vezina-caliber goalie Connor Hellebuyck. Better yet for fans of "Canadian-style hockey", only one of their players is shorter than six feet tall, Mathieu Perreault. Captain Blake Wheeler is 6'5" and 220 pounds; superstar center Mark Scheifele is 6'3" and 210; Patrik Laine is 6'5" and 210; Adam Lowry is 6'5" and 210; Andrew Copp is 6'1" and 210; Kevin Hayes is 6'5" and 216; Kyle Connor is 6'1" and 185; Bryan Little seems tiny at 6'0" and 190; the league's most feared defender Dustin Byfuglien is 6'5" and 260; Tyler Myers is 6'8" and 230 (yep!); Dmitry Kulikov is 6'1" and 205; Jacob Trouba is 6'3" and 205; Ben Chiarot is 6'3" and 220; even Nathan Beaulieu is 6'2" and 200. ALL OF THEM are fast. You don't fail as long as the Jets/Atlanta Thrashers have and not draft a ton of amazing players. They're all in their prime right now.

Jets in 4.

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