NHL Preview 2019-20: Washington Capitals

This year again, I will twin-post with my Collectibles Blog and write about a player who is related to my Preview post here. Today, it's former Vezina winner Braden Holtby.

GM: Brian MacLellan (since 2014). 8.5/10
Coach: Todd Reirden (since 2018). 7.5/10

2018-19 record: 48-26-8, 104 points (1st in the Metropolitan Division, 3rd in the Eastern Conference). Playoffs: Eliminated in Round 1 by the Carolina Hurricanes in seven games.

Departures: Brooks Orpik(D), Matt Niskanen (D), Dmitrij Jaskin (RW), Brett Connolly (LW), André Burakovsky (F).

Arrivals: Richard Panik (RW), Radko Gudas (D), Brendan Leipsic (RW).

Top forwards: Alex Ovechkin (captain, 70-85 points, look for him to flirt with the 50-goal mark again), Nicklas Backstrom (75-85 points), Evgeny Kuznetsov (70-80 points), Tom Wilson (45-50 points), T.J. Oshie (25-30 goals, 50-55 points, missing 10 games to injury), Panik (30-40 points), Carl Hagelin (30-40 points), Jakub Vrana (30-40 points), Lars Eller (25-30 points).

Must-improve forwards: Hagelin has all the tools to be a point-per-game player except one: a deadly shot. He does everything else well, has a good hockey sense, is super-fast and can control the puck at high speeds, but he seems to never be able to finish or set up perfect goals. With all his tools, he's a middling forward, but I'll always expect ONE jaw-dropping, 60-65-point season from him.

Top defensemen: John Carlsson (50-60 points), Dmitry Orlov (30-40 points), Michal Kempny (25-35 points), Jonas Siegenthaler (20-30 points), Gudas (15-20 points), Christian Djoos (10-15 points).

Goalies: Braden Holtby (92/100), Pheonix Copley (77/100).

Top rookies: Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (21 years old, LW), Alex Alexeyev (19, D), Martin Feherevary (19, D).

Analysis:
GM McLellan didn't like losing to the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1, so he revamped his middle-six and added grit in the form of Gudas on the back end. The direct result is a net loss on the talent front (unless some talented rookies take the place of the departed, in which case the Caps will actually have improved) and possibly even the locker room chemistry.

But as long as they have a healthy trio of Ovie, Backstrom and Kuznetsov up front, they have a chance. So much so that despite falling back by roughly 5-7% in raw talent, they probably still can win the Metro because their competition either regressed (Pittsburgh Penguins, Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets), remained stable (New York Islanders) or didn't improve enough (New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils). All of these teams are good enough to challenge for a playoff spot if the stars align, but none have a real shot at un-seeding the Caps.

The X factor is Holtby and Backstrom entering their final contract seasons, and Ovie having just another year left after this one, meaning contract negotiations and retirement talk may cause distractions.

Prediction: 1st in the Metropolitan Division.