Coach: John Tortorella (since 2015). 9/10
2018-19 record: 47-31-4, 98 points (5th in the Metropolitan Division, 8th in the Eastern Conference).
Playoffs: Lost in six games to the Boston Bruins in Round 2.
Departures: Artemi Panarin (LW), Matt Duchene (C), Sergei Bobrovsky (G), Ryan Dzingel (LW), Adam McQuaid (D), Keith Kincaid (G), Mark Letestu (D).
Arrivals: Gustav Nyquist (RW).
Top forwards: Pierre-Luc Dubois (60-70 points), Cam Atkinson (30-40 goals, 60-70 points), Alexander Wennberg (50-60 points), Gustav Nyquist (45-50 points), Nick Foligno (45-55 points), Boone Jenner (35-45 points), Oliver Bjorkstrand (30-40 points), Alexandre Texier (30-40 points), Josh Anderson (35-45 points), Brandon Dubinsky (25-30 points), Riley Nash (20-30 points).
Must-improve forwards: Wennberg and Bjorkstrand have another gear in them. Their ceiling is a 60-65-point season, and while I trust Wennmberg's talent to provide multiples of those, Bjorkstrand might have just one or two in his system; in each case, now's the time to take advantage of accrued experience and augmented ice time to pad their stats lines up.
Top defensemen: Zach Werenski (45-55 points), Seth Jones (40-50 points), Ryan Murray (30-35 points), David Savard (25-35 points), Scott Harrington (15-20 points).
Goalies: Elvis Merzlinkins (80/100), Joonas Korpisalo (73/100).
Top rookies: Alexandre Texier (20 years old, C, good playoffs in 2018-19), Sonny Milano (23, LW, 2014 first-round pick), Liam Foudy (19, C), Emil Bemstrom (20, C/RW), Paul Bittner (22, C), Trey Fix-Wolansky (20, RW), Andrew Peeke (21, D).
Analysis:
Losing Dzingel and Duchene won't hurt them at all, because the Blue Jackets were a very good team (and were already in the playoffs) when those two arrived at the trade deadline, and they didn't cost roster players - just draft picks and prospect Vitali Abramov. It was a boost for the playoffs, and it enabled the Jackets to sweep the record-tying Tampa Bay Lightning, a historically-good team.
Losing Panarin also isn't as dire as it seems, because his production will be offset by Dubois' progress into a #1 centre (the kid's just 21 but is probably already among the top-10 #1 centres in the league - or very close to that, I'm just going off the top of my head not via a list, but I'm taking away one of the Pittsburgh Penguins' and Edmonton Oilers' out of the equation because one has to qualify as a #2, not a #1. Anderson's also on the rise, as is Bjorkstrand, and Jenner should take advantage of the opportunity that's given him to make it to the 50-point club as well.
One departure no one can replace is Bobrovsky's, for two reasons: 1. he's the best in the world at what he does, and 2. his replacement must act alone, whereas forwards come in threes and defensemen work in pairs, so their teammates can help compensate for the loss. A goalie with a .920 save percentage (and Bob's actually even reached the .930 mark twice) cannot e replaced by a lesser number unless the team's entire defensive structure is modified. Five points less (.915) means an extra goal per two games, which could very turn 10 or 15 wins into 10 losses and 5 in the shootout.
And that's the only reason why I can't logically place the Jackets in the playoff picture. They didn't lose long-time, prime-aged key pieces in bulk like the Winnipeg Jets, but you need a premier goalie to elevate a solid team to the postseason, and Joonas Korpisalo has only proven to me that he can be a decent-at-times, disappointment-at-others backup in the NHL, and I don't know ANYTHING about Elvis Merzlikins, apart that he has some international accolades, but sometimes it takes European star goalies a good year or two to get accustomed to the smaller NHL ice, not just for the speed of the game that is faster because it's condensed, but also because all the points of reference, all your angles, the way you've played your entire life no longer apply: the blue line is closer, so a shot from the point comes at a different angle; the in-zone face-off circles are closer together and no longer cover the same view of the net that you're used to. Not only does it require angle adjustments, you may even have to adjust your style (stance, how far apart your feet are, height of glove, angle of stick) - it's like losing 10 years of experience and starting anew.
The bright side is the Jackets aren't the only team heading into this season without a high-calibre, proven NHL starting goalie; in their own division, the Carolina Hurricanes are doing the same, with a tandem that may be weaker than the one they had last year. The first of these teams that falters out of the gate and loses their patience quickly enough to grab an available "big name" goalie (a lot of rumours mention Jonathan Quick as being available) before the Holidays might very well buy its way into the playoff picture and gain 7-10 standing positions.
Preediction: 8th in the Metropolitan Division, 25th in the NHL*.
4th in the Metro, 17th in the NHL if they acquire a big-name goalie before the Holidays.
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