North:
Winnipeg Jets (3) vs Montréal Canadiens(4):
That the Habs eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs was no surprise to anyone who's seen the core of the Leafs get neutralized when it matters and know that Phillip Danault's line has been the most effective at shutting down the opposition for the past three seasons. In the entire league. (Side note: Danault and Tomas Tatar are in line to become free agents at season's end, so a team like the Seattle Kraken would start off on solid ground by finding a way to lure them both to the West Coast - it would also be their best bet to follow in the Vegas Golden Knights' footsteps).
But Mark Scheifele pulling a Danault on Connor McDavid is something I did not see happening. I had the Edmonton Oilers getting out of the Canadian Division and facing one of the American teams.
Both the Habs and the Jets have more depth and stable goaltending than the Oilers do, so these two teams have a much better chance to bring the Cup home to Canada than the Oilers or Leafs would have, and they're similarly constructed, with a mix of speed, talent and grit that works well at the time of year where referees "let the boys play", but Winnipeg has a lot more elite talent. Blake Wheeler is essentially Josh Anderson come to fruition, Scheifele is one of the ten best in the world at his position, Pierre-Luc Dubois is a power forward masquerading as a centerman who will eventually join him in that ranking and is two or three years ahead of his counterparts on the Habs (Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi) in his development, Paul Stastny is still serviceable and a terrific leader, the defense - led by Josh Morrisey and Neal Pionk - is quick, gritty and stingy - and they have the best goalie on the planet in Connor Hellebuyck.
Of course, Montréal has Brendan Gallagher, Tyler Toffoli and Cole Caufield, maybe injuries help them make their way through, but in reality, while the games will be close, the 'Peg will prevail.
Jets in 6.
East:
Boston Bruins (3) vs New York Islanders(4): The Bs have operated the most successful "retool" in the NHL, where half their prospects came to in the same season and they got back into the playoffs after a couple of seasons of mediocrity, as soon as they moved on from head coach Claude Julien and began the Bruce Cassidy era. Those prospects are now the core of this team, and the veterans who were supposed to age out of that core - namely Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand up front, Tuukka Rask in net - have simply refused to age. Hate it or love it (I'm of the former by birth), they have been part of the league's elite for most years in the past decade-plus.
The Isles are a beautifully-constructed team made of mostly of home-grown dependable players who have accepted the fact that none of them will retire with a 100-point season under their belt but are willing to trade that off with a championship or two, courtesy of the best coach in the game, Barry Trotz (and the best goalie guru of this era in Mitch Korn). They have a player that is of all-star caliber in Mathew Barzal, but he doesn't have to be a point-per-game player to carry his teammates; there are nine forwards on this team who can get 45 to 60 points in any given year, and GM Lou Lamoriello made sure he acquired playoff-tested players like Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri to complement his core rather than take a gamble on a Taylor Hall, who now skates for Boston.
It's going to be a battle to the finish, but I think Boston has a slight edge this season. I'll be rooting for the Isles, though.
Bruins in 7
Central:
Carolina Hurricanes (1) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (3):
All praise due to the Canes and their wonderful season, their beautiful offense, their amazing defense and the fact that they may have found their next (first true?) franchise goaltender... but the Lightning are back at full force after Nikita Kucherov missed the entire season due to injury, and the Bolts are still the best team of the salary cap era, so, yeah, no, they may not win the Cup again though they're largely favourites to do so in my book, but they're going past the Hurricanes.
Lightning in 5.
West:
Colorado Avalanche (1) vs Vegas Golden Knights (2):
These are respectively the second- and third-best teams in the league so, sure, its, a bit unfair that one has to get eliminated as early as the second round, but at least they are facing one another, which is more than what can be said about top seeds most years. But this isn't as even a contest as it could be, because I do not think Vegas head coach Peter DeBoer has what it takes to outsmart his counterpart Jared Bednar - or counter the onslaught of Avalache offense.
Q: Are Vegas' goalies technically better than the Avs' #1?
A: Yes, but it doesn't matter, only one can play at a time, Marc-André Fleury is 36 and Robin Lehner is rusty.
Q: What about Vegas' strong defense?
A: With all due respect to Shea Theodore - and a little less to Alex Pietrangelo - there is no one on the Golden Knights as good as Cale Makar and Samuel Girard is also less of a household name who deserves a spot in this conversation.
Q: Is there a better line in hockey than Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog?
A: Short answer: no.
Long answer: The aforementioned Habs (Danault-Tatar-Gallagher, most effective in the league) and Bruins (Bergeron-Marchand-David Pastrnak, best two-way line who also put points on the board) lines are crazy-good, but there are two of the most electrifying players in the game here, complemented by one of the hardest-working players in the game, each of these guys is worth two Max Paciorettys and 150% of the Reilly Smith-Jonathan Marchessault-William Karlsson line. There is no Mark Stone on the Avs (or anywhere else in the NHL for that matter), but that's because they don't need to plan for any other zone than the offensive one.
Q: So where does that leave us?
A: With another post-season choke for DeBoer, who should be good to coach the Leafs in a year or two.
Avalanche in 6.
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