NHL 2021-21 Stanley Cup Final Predictions

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

(full disclosure: while I started writing this piece a couple of days ahead of Game 1, I only finished it once the game was over; the only difference is that Nikita Kucherov does not appear injured as advertized, looking like Connor McDavid playing with and against teenagers out there instead of like Mike McPhee)

I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that each Final Four team had a legitimate chance at winning the Stanley Cup, and with the elimination of the New York Islanders and Vegas Golden Knights, the best and worst head coaches of the postseason have been removed from the equation, meaning the end result will fall on strategy, health and the players themselves.

The Montréal Canadiens end up with their ideal matchup, as they are built to eliminate the opposition's scoring threats, but they also fall onto their biggest thorn on their side outside of the Ottawa Senators, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Of course, the Bolts aren't merely "good", the best team of the Salary Cap era (yes, better than the 2012-2014 Los Angeles Kings who were essentially this year's Habs, better than the back-to-back winning Pittsburgh Penguins whose defense was suspect, and even the revamped Chicago Blackhawks who had a handful of potential Hall Of Famers but lacked depth). And they don't have to rely on theri talent either, they can grind it out with the toughest of them, especially with the addition of David Savard on the back end at the trade deadline.

Here are the comparisons and match-ups:

Vegas Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (2):
Offense: Lightning
Defense: tie
Goaltending: Lightning
Coaching: Lightning

First Line:
As we've seen with Vegas, Toronto and Winnipeg, it doesn't really matter that the opposition has the better players on paper, since the game is played on a sheet of ice and the Habs' top unit comprised of Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and a rotating cast of left wingers can and will shut them all down, just like they did with McDavid in the regular season. Except that without Tomas Tatar, this line no longer scores, so while they do outshoot, outchance and outpossess the other side, they do not produce, what with Artturi Lehkonen and/or Jake Evans not having found a way to translate their skill-set into goal production yet. And the Bolts have Kucherov, by far the best player in the series. Sure, there is also Brayden Point
, particularly if you believe he is the heir to clutch playoff performers like Claude Lemieux and Brad Richards; whether that is the case or not, he just scored in nine consecutive games, he's due for a cold streak, I do not see him finishing with 20 markers. Point can get the Danault treatment like Auston Matthews, Nikolai Ehlers and Mark Stone before him.

The second lines are where it gets tricky, because the Bolts have Steven Stamkos on that right wing, who can also play centre, so when they're merely playing well, they are nearly at the level of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Tyler Toffoli when they are nearing their (current) high upside. I believe the Habs can hold their own, but one game could slip them by due to this match-up, despite the presence of Anthony Cirelli has inserted himself in the Selke conversaion that inexplcably always leaves Danault on the outs, with the same ability to counter and counter-attack.

The third lines also technically match on paper, and maybe down the line the edge switches, but for now, Josh Anderson's skill-set as a quick, tough power forward is lacking in goal-scoring finish, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi will have a hard time staying on his feet against the hard-skating and hard-hitting Lightning players, while Paul Byron's worth is clearer on the penalty kill than in a regular shift. Over six or even games, they will get outscored by Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, but the important part is that I believe they can keep it even three times and get the best of them once.

The fourth line is clearly at Montréal's advantage, with Corey Perry and Eric Staal bringing toughness, Championship experience and a drive they hadn't displayed in years, well complemented by Joel Armia's ability to retrieve and protec the puck. Patrick Maroon, Russ Colton and the ghost of Tyler Johnson's salvation can only come in being pests and antogonizing the Canadiens' forwards and taking them to the penalty box. Which leads me to...

Special teams:
The deadliest power play versus the best penalty kill of the entire playoffs. The Canadiens are riding a 13-game kill streak, which is bound to get broken, and their ability to bounce back instead of reverting to a mean right away will be key in keeping the momentum up in games. Danault, Armia, Byron, Lehtonen, Gallagher and perhaps even Evans ar every good at blocking passing lanes, getting in front of shots, killing time and gaining possession while down a man, and facing what is essentially the top five players of a perfect team will be their toughest assigment yet, but I expect Danault to continue fooling his detractors and Byron to score another breakaway shorthanded goal.

Defense: I have these as being equal despite the presence of Norris and Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman on Tampa's back end because Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson are so good at keeping shots coming from dead corners or the blue line that what the equivalent of "zero chances given" can only be, well, zero chances. Of course, Weber and Petry's ability to use their Norris-level shots is obviously impaired by injuries to their hands, but Hedman's been looking human too in these playoffs, so much so that Ryan McDonagh actually looks like their top guy right now. And while Mikhail Sergachev is well on his way to a role in the Norris conversation, he can get riled up rather easily and has a tendency to take bad penalties. Watch out for trade deadline acquisition David Savard's deadly hits, he could injure somebody.

Goaltending:
Both former Vezina Trophy winners, Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy are by no means perfect. Vasi is probably the best in the league to stop shots at ice level and up to a foot and a half high, but if one has time to lift the puck, particularly after a cross-crease pass, he's vulnerable up top. He has fewer gaping holes than Price (three vs six), but they're larger. Here's a look at their stances and weaknesses, starting with Vasilevskiy, who always has his pads perfectly flat on the ice surface:

He is also excellent at (and large enough to) stick both pads together to cover the five-hole without using his stick to do so, while still covering the rest of the net at ice level:

He even moves from one end of the net top the other in near-perfect butterfly so that no shot that isn't quicker than he is can ever enter the net:

Because he's so good at it - and because the Lightning's defense rarely leaves opposing forwards enough time to lift the puck - it's becoem his go-to move, so much so that his gloves have more or less become more of balancing tools that hope to stop pucks mid-motion than space-takers and puck-tracking devices:

That, and the fact that he uses the "swat-down" position for his catching glove means he's faster to bring his glove down than bring it upwards and leaves the top of the net vulnerable:

Price also uses the "swat-down" position, but he adds difficulty (to his own life...) by only putting the butt of his stick on the ice, instead of the entire blade, creating five-hole surprises:

Sometimes he also looks like he's slightly off-balance, leaning forward to anticipate moving, which can also lead to surprises (notably giving up the five hole, inability to stop the pucks in the high corners and susceptibility to a side-to-side pass):

His high blocker side has been an issue since his rookie season, and the same can be said for the high glove side. Most of his glove saves have added flair that look spectacular, but replays show the puck just enters a basket that was already there. Another issue is the five-hole, because he rarely is able to stick both pads together, and almost never covers the area with his stick (or blocker):

Prediction: Tampa in 7.
Conn Smythe: Nikita Kucherov or Carey Price

Here are my MVPs for each team so far:
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov
Canadiens: Phillip Danault