Blue Jackets Preview: Jakub Voracek Jersey Card

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This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Seth Jones (D), Cam Atkinson (RW), Kole Sherwood (RW), Michael Del Zotto (D)

Key Arrivals: Jakub Voracek (RW), Adam Boqvist (D), Jake Bean (D), Sean Kuraly (C), Zac Rinaldo (C)

Top prospects: Kent Johnson (C), Cole Sillinger (C), Corson Ceulemans (D), Kirill Marchenko (RW), Yegor Chinakhov (RW), Andrew Peeke (D), Daniil Tarasov (G), Dmitri Voronkov (LW), Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW), Stanislav Svozil (D), Liam Foudy (C), xxx (LW), xxx (LW)

This is a transition period for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have only a handful of players left from the failed "all-in" season three years ago. Even head coach John Tortorella left, replaced by assistant Brad Larsen. There will be growing pains while a new system is set up, in the same way an expansion team like the Seattle Kraken might face, except exclusively with home-grown young players and draft picks, not hand-picked from the entire league. The four new players coming in look solid to me (even Rinaldo, who will help instill some team spirit).

What makes their odds look good:
The Blue Jackets' top-three on defense consisting of Zach Werenski, Boqvist and Bean will be solid eventually, but the latter two must gain experience first, and it will be trial by fire at least for this season. Goalie Elvis Merzlikins is a very good goalie who may fall into a Vezina Trophy at some point (in the era of Connor Hellebuyck, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Andrei Vasilevskiy, which wil lbe extremely difficult), but he would need his team to make the playoffs for that to happen.

Question marks: Will Patrik Laine regain his offensive touch, or will he bide his time until he can leave himself?

Outlook:
The trade deadline brought in a huge leadership void when captain Nick Foligno and defenseman David Savard were traded for high draft picks, which was compounded by Jones' and Atkinson's summer departures. This will take time to rebuild.

Prediction:
8th in the Metropolitan Division.

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the one-for-one trade involving Atkinson (headed to the Philadelphia Flyers) and Voracek - on both sides. Atkinson is still a 30-goal man, a feisty little speedster, and Voracek produces at a 0.75-point-per-game clip at this stage in his career - a very good production rate for a 32-year-old player - but he's lost a bit of foot speed and is an assists collector first and foremost, and I fail to see who he will set up unless he is directly tasked with reviving Laine's game.

He knows what to expect in Columbus, however, having already been a part of a rebuild there to start his career off as the team's 7th-overall pick in 2007. This is what he looked like wearing deep blue, as seen on card #GJ-JV from Upper Deck's 2010-11 Series 1 collection and UD Game Jersey sub-set:

It features a white game-worn jersey swatch.

NHL Preview 2019-20: Columbus Blue Jackets

(This year again, I will twin-post with my Collectibles Blog and write about a player who is related to my Preview post here. Today, it's Columbus Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno).

GM: Jarmo Kekalainen (since 2013). 9/10
Coach: John Tortorella (since 2015). 9/10

2018-19 record: 47-31-4, 98 points (5th in the Metropolitan Division, 8th in the Eastern Conference).
Playoffs: Lost in six games to the Boston Bruins in Round 2.

Departures: Artemi Panarin (LW), Matt Duchene (C), Sergei Bobrovsky (G), Ryan Dzingel (LW), Adam McQuaid (D), Keith Kincaid (G), Mark Letestu (D).

Arrivals: Gustav Nyquist (RW).

Top forwards: Pierre-Luc Dubois (60-70 points), Cam Atkinson (30-40 goals, 60-70 points), Alexander Wennberg (50-60 points), Gustav Nyquist (45-50 points), Nick Foligno (45-55 points), Boone Jenner (35-45 points), Oliver Bjorkstrand (30-40 points), Alexandre Texier (30-40 points), Josh Anderson (35-45 points), Brandon Dubinsky (25-30 points), Riley Nash (20-30 points).

Must-improve forwards: Wennberg and Bjorkstrand have another gear in them. Their ceiling is a 60-65-point season, and while I trust Wennmberg's talent to provide multiples of those, Bjorkstrand might have just one or two in his system; in each case, now's the time to take advantage of accrued experience and augmented ice time to pad their stats lines up.

Top defensemen: Zach Werenski (45-55 points), Seth Jones (40-50 points), Ryan Murray (30-35 points), David Savard (25-35 points), Scott Harrington (15-20 points).

Goalies: Elvis Merzlinkins (80/100), Joonas Korpisalo (73/100).

Top rookies: Alexandre Texier (20 years old, C, good playoffs in 2018-19), Sonny Milano (23, LW, 2014 first-round pick), Liam Foudy (19, C), Emil Bemstrom (20, C/RW), Paul Bittner (22, C), Trey Fix-Wolansky (20, RW), Andrew Peeke (21, D).

Analysis:
Losing Dzingel and Duchene won't hurt them at all, because the Blue Jackets were a very good team (and were already in the playoffs) when those two arrived at the trade deadline, and they didn't cost roster players - just draft picks and prospect Vitali Abramov. It was a boost for the playoffs, and it enabled the Jackets to sweep the record-tying Tampa Bay Lightning, a historically-good team.

Losing Panarin also isn't as dire as it seems, because his production will be offset by Dubois' progress into a #1 centre (the kid's just 21 but is probably already among the top-10 #1 centres in the league - or very close to that, I'm just going off the top of my head not via a list, but I'm taking away one of the Pittsburgh Penguins' and Edmonton Oilers' out of the equation because one has to qualify as a #2, not a #1. Anderson's also on the rise, as is Bjorkstrand, and Jenner should take advantage of the opportunity that's given him to make it to the 50-point club as well.

One departure no one can replace is Bobrovsky's, for two reasons: 1. he's the best in the world at what he does, and 2. his replacement must act alone, whereas forwards come in threes and defensemen work in pairs, so their teammates can help compensate for the loss. A goalie with a .920 save percentage (and Bob's actually even reached the .930 mark twice) cannot e replaced by a lesser number unless the team's entire defensive structure is modified. Five points less (.915) means an extra goal per two games, which could very turn 10 or 15 wins into 10 losses and 5 in the shootout.

And that's the only reason why I can't logically place the Jackets in the playoff picture. They didn't lose long-time, prime-aged key pieces in bulk like the Winnipeg Jets, but you need a premier goalie to elevate a solid team to the postseason, and Joonas Korpisalo has only proven to me that he can be a decent-at-times, disappointment-at-others backup in the NHL, and I don't know ANYTHING about Elvis Merzlikins, apart that he has some international accolades, but sometimes it takes European star goalies a good year or two to get accustomed to the smaller NHL ice, not just for the speed of the game that is faster because it's condensed, but also because all the points of reference, all your angles, the way you've played your entire life no longer apply: the blue line is closer, so a shot from the point comes at a different angle; the in-zone face-off circles are closer together and no longer cover the same view of the net that you're used to. Not only does it require angle adjustments, you may even have to adjust your style (stance, how far apart your feet are, height of glove, angle of stick) - it's like losing 10 years of experience and starting anew.

The bright side is the Jackets aren't the only team heading into this season without a high-calibre, proven NHL starting goalie; in their own division, the Carolina Hurricanes are doing the same, with a tandem that may be weaker than the one they had last year. The first of these teams that falters out of the gate and loses their patience quickly enough to grab an available "big name" goalie (a lot of rumours mention Jonathan Quick as being available) before the Holidays might very well buy its way into the playoff picture and gain 7-10 standing positions.

Preediction: 8th in the Metropolitan Division, 25th in the NHL*.
                  4th in the Metro, 17th in the NHL if they acquire a big-name goalie before the Holidays.

NHL Preview 2017-18: Columbus Blue Jackets

GM: Jarmo Kekalainen (since 2013). 8.5/10
Coach: John Tortorella (since 2015). 8/10

2016-17 record: 50-24-8, 108 points, 4th overall, third in the Metro, lost to the Stanley Cup champions in the first round.

Departures: Brandon Saad (LW), Sam Gagner (C), William Karlsson (C), Kyle Quincey (D), Scott Hartnell (RW), Anton Forsberg (G), T.J. Tynan (C), David Clarkson (RW).

Arrivals: Artemi Panarin (LW), Cameron Gaunce (D), Jordan Schroeder (C), Tyler Motte (LW).

Top forwards: Panarin (65-80 points), Alexander Wennberg (55-70 points), Cam Atkinson (30-35 goals, 60-65 points), Nick Foligno (45-55 points), Boone Jenner (35-45 points), Oliver Bjorkstrand (30-40 points), Josh Anderson (30-35 points), Brandon Dubinsky (35-50 points).

Must-improve forward: Dubinsky needs to decide if he's going to be a premium two-way player who can contribute when it matters or just the biggest thorn in Sidney Crosby's side - and one that 87 has learned to play around at that. I mean, most of the Jackets need to step up in the playoffs, captain Foligno included, but Dubinsky was destined for far greater things throughout his career.

Top defensemen: Zach Werenski (35-55 points, because no player should be treated as exempt of the dreaded Sophomore Slump), Seth Jones (40-50 points), Jack Johnson (20-25 points), David Savard (25-30 points).

Goalies: Sergei Bobrovsky (94/100), Joonas Korpisalo (83/100).

Top rookies: Pierre-Luc Dubois (19 years old, C, third-overall draft pick in 2016), Sonny Milano (21, LW, 2014 first-round pick), Gabriel Carlsson (20, D), Paul Bittner (20, C), Vitali Abramov (19, RW, 104 points in 66 games in the LHJMQ in 2016-17).

Analysis:
There is at least one more full season to go before Tortorella Fatigue makes its way through the Blue Jackets' ranks. He protected the team when it started losing after last season's record-setting streak and will continue to do so as long as it retains its hard-working, blue-collar mentality. Panarin, who could become a free agent after the 2018-19 season, however, is a true superstar who may not fit that mold, as his two playoffs with the Chicago Blackhawks have shown.

Should the team falter in any way prior to the trade deadline, GM Kekalainen will be able to address any issue via trade or firing. He remains one of the best long-term talent evaluators in the world and knows what every player needs in order to achieve their potential.

Even if Panarin takes a step back from not playing alongside a Patrick Kane type in Columbus, as a team, the Jackets have not taken a step back, personnel-wise. They remain pretty much the same team as last year, with added experience, which should only benefit them. They go up in the standings this year because the Washington Capitals took a slight step back this summer.

Columbus also boasts the only active two-time Vezina Trophy winner in Bobrovsky, who is a terrific regular-season goalie and likely the second-best in the world, after Braden Holtby. Behind a defence comprised of young phenom Werenski, Team Canada alumnus Savard, Team USA alumni Jones and Johnson, as well as former third-overall pick Ryan Murray, Markus Nutivaara, Scott Harrington and Carlsson, he will keep stopping 93% of the shots he receives.

Prediction: 2nd in the Metropolitan Division.