NHL 2021-21 Stanley Cup Final Predictions

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

(full disclosure: while I started writing this piece a couple of days ahead of Game 1, I only finished it once the game was over; the only difference is that Nikita Kucherov does not appear injured as advertized, looking like Connor McDavid playing with and against teenagers out there instead of like Mike McPhee)

I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that each Final Four team had a legitimate chance at winning the Stanley Cup, and with the elimination of the New York Islanders and Vegas Golden Knights, the best and worst head coaches of the postseason have been removed from the equation, meaning the end result will fall on strategy, health and the players themselves.

The Montréal Canadiens end up with their ideal matchup, as they are built to eliminate the opposition's scoring threats, but they also fall onto their biggest thorn on their side outside of the Ottawa Senators, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Of course, the Bolts aren't merely "good", the best team of the Salary Cap era (yes, better than the 2012-2014 Los Angeles Kings who were essentially this year's Habs, better than the back-to-back winning Pittsburgh Penguins whose defense was suspect, and even the revamped Chicago Blackhawks who had a handful of potential Hall Of Famers but lacked depth). And they don't have to rely on theri talent either, they can grind it out with the toughest of them, especially with the addition of David Savard on the back end at the trade deadline.

Here are the comparisons and match-ups:

Vegas Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (2):
Offense: Lightning
Defense: tie
Goaltending: Lightning
Coaching: Lightning

First Line:
As we've seen with Vegas, Toronto and Winnipeg, it doesn't really matter that the opposition has the better players on paper, since the game is played on a sheet of ice and the Habs' top unit comprised of Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and a rotating cast of left wingers can and will shut them all down, just like they did with McDavid in the regular season. Except that without Tomas Tatar, this line no longer scores, so while they do outshoot, outchance and outpossess the other side, they do not produce, what with Artturi Lehkonen and/or Jake Evans not having found a way to translate their skill-set into goal production yet. And the Bolts have Kucherov, by far the best player in the series. Sure, there is also Brayden Point
, particularly if you believe he is the heir to clutch playoff performers like Claude Lemieux and Brad Richards; whether that is the case or not, he just scored in nine consecutive games, he's due for a cold streak, I do not see him finishing with 20 markers. Point can get the Danault treatment like Auston Matthews, Nikolai Ehlers and Mark Stone before him.

The second lines are where it gets tricky, because the Bolts have Steven Stamkos on that right wing, who can also play centre, so when they're merely playing well, they are nearly at the level of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Tyler Toffoli when they are nearing their (current) high upside. I believe the Habs can hold their own, but one game could slip them by due to this match-up, despite the presence of Anthony Cirelli has inserted himself in the Selke conversaion that inexplcably always leaves Danault on the outs, with the same ability to counter and counter-attack.

The third lines also technically match on paper, and maybe down the line the edge switches, but for now, Josh Anderson's skill-set as a quick, tough power forward is lacking in goal-scoring finish, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi will have a hard time staying on his feet against the hard-skating and hard-hitting Lightning players, while Paul Byron's worth is clearer on the penalty kill than in a regular shift. Over six or even games, they will get outscored by Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, but the important part is that I believe they can keep it even three times and get the best of them once.

The fourth line is clearly at Montréal's advantage, with Corey Perry and Eric Staal bringing toughness, Championship experience and a drive they hadn't displayed in years, well complemented by Joel Armia's ability to retrieve and protec the puck. Patrick Maroon, Russ Colton and the ghost of Tyler Johnson's salvation can only come in being pests and antogonizing the Canadiens' forwards and taking them to the penalty box. Which leads me to...

Special teams:
The deadliest power play versus the best penalty kill of the entire playoffs. The Canadiens are riding a 13-game kill streak, which is bound to get broken, and their ability to bounce back instead of reverting to a mean right away will be key in keeping the momentum up in games. Danault, Armia, Byron, Lehtonen, Gallagher and perhaps even Evans ar every good at blocking passing lanes, getting in front of shots, killing time and gaining possession while down a man, and facing what is essentially the top five players of a perfect team will be their toughest assigment yet, but I expect Danault to continue fooling his detractors and Byron to score another breakaway shorthanded goal.

Defense: I have these as being equal despite the presence of Norris and Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman on Tampa's back end because Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson are so good at keeping shots coming from dead corners or the blue line that what the equivalent of "zero chances given" can only be, well, zero chances. Of course, Weber and Petry's ability to use their Norris-level shots is obviously impaired by injuries to their hands, but Hedman's been looking human too in these playoffs, so much so that Ryan McDonagh actually looks like their top guy right now. And while Mikhail Sergachev is well on his way to a role in the Norris conversation, he can get riled up rather easily and has a tendency to take bad penalties. Watch out for trade deadline acquisition David Savard's deadly hits, he could injure somebody.

Goaltending:
Both former Vezina Trophy winners, Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy are by no means perfect. Vasi is probably the best in the league to stop shots at ice level and up to a foot and a half high, but if one has time to lift the puck, particularly after a cross-crease pass, he's vulnerable up top. He has fewer gaping holes than Price (three vs six), but they're larger. Here's a look at their stances and weaknesses, starting with Vasilevskiy, who always has his pads perfectly flat on the ice surface:

He is also excellent at (and large enough to) stick both pads together to cover the five-hole without using his stick to do so, while still covering the rest of the net at ice level:

He even moves from one end of the net top the other in near-perfect butterfly so that no shot that isn't quicker than he is can ever enter the net:

Because he's so good at it - and because the Lightning's defense rarely leaves opposing forwards enough time to lift the puck - it's becoem his go-to move, so much so that his gloves have more or less become more of balancing tools that hope to stop pucks mid-motion than space-takers and puck-tracking devices:

That, and the fact that he uses the "swat-down" position for his catching glove means he's faster to bring his glove down than bring it upwards and leaves the top of the net vulnerable:

Price also uses the "swat-down" position, but he adds difficulty (to his own life...) by only putting the butt of his stick on the ice, instead of the entire blade, creating five-hole surprises:

Sometimes he also looks like he's slightly off-balance, leaning forward to anticipate moving, which can also lead to surprises (notably giving up the five hole, inability to stop the pucks in the high corners and susceptibility to a side-to-side pass):

His high blocker side has been an issue since his rookie season, and the same can be said for the high glove side. Most of his glove saves have added flair that look spectacular, but replays show the puck just enters a basket that was already there. Another issue is the five-hole, because he rarely is able to stick both pads together, and almost never covers the area with his stick (or blocker):

Prediction: Tampa in 7.
Conn Smythe: Nikita Kucherov or Carey Price

Here are my MVPs for each team so far:
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov
Canadiens: Phillip Danault

NHL 2021-21 Round 3 Predictions

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

Welcome to the 2020-21 Stanley Cup semi-finals! In an odd turn of event, each one of the Final Four teams has a clear path to the Cup:

Tampa Bay Lightning: the best team of the Salary Cap era, they can beat anyone on any day, but still don't have this one in the bag.

New York Islanders: with the best coach in the world (Barry Trotz) and a magician in charge of the defense and goaltending (Mitch Korn), they are a Giant Killer. Where they have a little less of a shot than the Habs is they are much less physical, and they will not be able to wear down both the Bolts and Knights back-to-back with just their speed.

Vegas Golden Knights: contenders since their inception, this is the best defensive team they have iced yet, though it has less offensive firepower than in its second and third seasons with the departure of Paul Stastny. Their weak point is the fact that they are outcoached by nearly all remaining teams, but they have enough talent to overcome that.

Montréal Canadiens: they can shut down offensive supwerpowers, which means going through the Golden Knights and Lightning is possible, but it wouldn't be as "easy" (nothing will be easy at this point...) to get through the Isles.

Let's get to the match-ups!

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (4):
Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: tie, but slight advantage to the Habs
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: Habs

First Line:
On paper, both teams have one of the best shut-down/outscoring first lines in the league, with a true Selke nominee on one side (Mark Stone) and the guy who should have won it this year but isn't even nominated because of writers' bias towards the Boston Bruins' Patrice Bergeron (Phillipe Danault). The fact that Tomas Tatar was not producing while nursing an injury and is no longer even dressing for games shouldn't affect our analysis since both Jake Evans (currently nursing a concussion) and Artturi Lehkonen have been able to slide in at the opposite of Brendan Gallagher (who may score a little less than his counterpart Max Pacioretty but more than makes up for the difference on grit , leadership and physical play) and keep carrying the play, which is a testament to just how effective Danault really is. We're talking about the only forward in Canada sho shut down Connor McDavid in the regular season and who kept Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at bay during the first round, then by his mere presence on the ice domesticated a Winnipeg Jets team that was without its star centre Mark Schiefele (suspended for his idiotic and predatory hit on Evans) and didn't even want to put up any kind of fight. Knights centre Chandler Stephenson has yet to reach his linemates' stature (though now is as good a time as ever). Clear advantage Montréal here.

Second Line:
Depth seems to dip in Vegas' favour, especially since their "second line" of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith was its #1 unit when they reached the Stanley Cup Final three seasons ago; Marchessault has 6 goals on his own already, and Karlsson leads the team with 11 points in 13 games so far. The Habs counter with their future #1 centre and former Vegas first-round pick in Nick Suzuki, a clutch player who can score himself or feed a sniper on each wing in Tyler Toffoli and the undersized Cole Caufield. This match-up is even, with Smith's experience compensating for his lack of production this postseason.

Forward depth:
The Canadiens roll equivalent, balanced lines with speed, grit and some form of potential scoring, with such players as Joel Armia (4 goals), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4) and Corey Perry (3) have scored important goals, with seven different forwards scoring game-winners - Toffoli (2), Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Perry, Lehkonen, Gallagher, and Paul Byron. Any line can play heroes, and having a former Cup-winning captain in Eric Staal center the fourth line just adds an intangible that plays strongly in their favour. But the Golden Knights have a checking line taht is extremely dificult to play against, as William Carrier, Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar are relentless forecheckers, and Montréal has yet to face a player like Ryan Reaves. He will toe a very uncomfortable line and bruise the living hell out of everyone he meets alongside the boards; he may be the difference-maker in this series.

Defense:
There is no doubt the Golden Knights hold the talent advantage here, with two Norris-level performers playing on the same side in Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, and that holds even more true if the Canadiens' top option on defense - Jeff Petry - is unable to suit up because of his broken finger(s). Alec Martinez and Zach Whitecloud complete a very potable top-four and Nick Holden, Brayden McNabb et Nicholas Hague are no slouches in completing the unit either. Their stickwork in pushing pucks away from the carrier is truly a sight to behold (and leave opposing forwards befuddled at first, then angry), but at least they let the opposing players into the zone mostly unscathed. Petry, Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson operate in a very different manner: they just clobber the body until it breaks and block shots as if they believed their own goalie was unable to. 11 of Vegas' forwards will be hesitant to go into the zone as the series progresses, but Reaves wil lbe dishig out their own medecine to the Habs' D-corps, which will be interesting. He may also grow impatient and get suspended for a dangerous play, which would hurt his team immensely.

Goaltending:
Future all Of Famer Marc-André Fleury has the edge here, no doubt. Although he and Carey Price have similar GAAs (1.91 vs 1.97), Fleury faced Nathan MacKinnon and the potent Colorado Avalanche offense, the team that won the Presidents' Trophy, whereas Price essentially faced an average AHL team once Scheifele was done with the series and Paul Stastny came back to play injured. Fleury also has the edge in that he's been on fire all year long, earnig a Vezina Trophy nod, whereas Price was outplayed by Jake Allen every step of the way, cost three coaches their jobs this year and hasn't exactly stolen a game this far.

This one goes the full seven games. The Canadiens might come up on top if Petry only misses one game; if not, Fleury and Reaves are why the G-Knights make it through.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs New York Islanders (3):

Tampa Bay:
Playing with bank money on account of Nikita Kucherov missing the entire season and other monies being on LTIR at the trade deadline, the Bolts are currently icing a team that is $17M above the cap, meaning even if they didn't have Tyler Johnson (whose $5M contract has been on waivers numerous times), they'd still be $12M over; that's two second-line players, give or take. That means they already had one of the best defensive corps in the league (including a Norris and Conn Smythe winner), and a first line that includes a Hart and Art Ross winner on one side and a Maurice Richard winner on the other, their second and third lines are both top-tier, and their fourth is probably a third. Plus, they have the experience of winning last season, and new face David Savard on D who not only has not won the Cup but was part of the team that surprised Tampa by sweeping them in the first roudn two years ago. He know how to beat them and will not let it happen. Oh, and they have a Vezina winner in net. While I do not agree that Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best goalie in the NHL (that would be Connor Hellebuyck, followed by Fleury and John Gibson), he is the best at stopping shots that are in the bottom foot and a half of the net, as his athleticism and speed is akin to prime Jonathan Quick in that regard, with better anticipation. If you can't aim for the top six to eight inches of net, you're uselessly raising his save percentage and getting him unnecessary praise.

Islanders:
The Isles have exactly one elite player: Mathew Barzal. He just figured out how to get free in the playoffs two games ago, so he may actually get to turn the backburners on on his offensive production, but so far, the depth pieces have gotten the job done, most notably proven palyoff performer Jean-Gabriel Pageau and breakout star Anthony Beauvillier. They are so clutch it feels like they're on the ice only when it matters most.

Grit:
If you haven't paid attention to the Central and Metro and just landed in the third round of the playoffs, you'd be inclined to think the defensive Islanders are probably playing as heavy a game as the Canadiens are, but it's actually the Lightning who are the most penalized team of the postseason - just like they'd been all year long. And New York had better hope it remains that way, because Tampa's powerplay is scoring at a 41% clip, so they can make you pay very quickly... when they're not busy making you pay a toll physically. They can play any type of game: speed, skill, toughness. Where they haven't been so tested is their patience. They're so good, they've yet to be stalled for long periods of time, so if Semyon Varlamov can shut the door long enough to get on their nerves, no one knows what will happen, which may be good news for the team whose last playoff success came during their 1980s dynasty.

Lightning in six.

Here are the MVPs for each team so far:
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov
Golden Knights: Marc-André Fleury
Islanders: Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anthony Beauvillier
Canadiens: Phillip Danault

NHL 2020-21 Round 2 Playoff Predictions

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

As promised, here are my Round 2 Predictions going into these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

North:
Winnipeg Jets (3) vs Montréal Canadiens(4):
That the Habs eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs was no surprise to anyone who's seen the core of the Leafs get neutralized when it matters and know that Phillip Danault's line has been the most effective at shutting down the opposition for the past three seasons. In the entire league. (Side note: Danault and Tomas Tatar are in line to become free agents at season's end, so a team like the Seattle Kraken would start off on solid ground by finding a way to lure them both to the West Coast - it would also be their best bet to follow in the Vegas Golden Knights' footsteps).

But Mark Scheifele pulling a Danault on Connor McDavid is something I did not see happening. I had the Edmonton Oilers getting out of the Canadian Division and facing one of the American teams.

Both the Habs and the Jets have more depth and stable goaltending than the Oilers do, so these two teams have a much better chance to bring the Cup home to Canada than the Oilers or Leafs would have, and they're similarly constructed, with a mix of speed, talent and grit that works well at the time of year where referees "let the boys play", but Winnipeg has a lot more elite talent. Blake Wheeler is essentially Josh Anderson come to fruition, Scheifele is one of the ten best in the world at his position, Pierre-Luc Dubois is a power forward masquerading as a centerman who will eventually join him in that ranking and is two or three years ahead of his counterparts on the Habs (Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi) in his development, Paul Stastny is still serviceable and a terrific leader, the defense - led by Josh Morrisey and Neal Pionk - is quick, gritty and stingy - and they have the best goalie on the planet in Connor Hellebuyck.

Of course, Montréal has Brendan Gallagher, Tyler Toffoli and Cole Caufield, maybe injuries help them make their way through, but in reality, while the games will be close, the 'Peg will prevail.

Jets in 6.

East:
Boston Bruins (3) vs New York Islanders(4): The Bs have operated the most successful "retool" in the NHL, where half their prospects came to in the same season and they got back into the playoffs after a couple of seasons of mediocrity, as soon as they moved on from head coach Claude Julien and began the Bruce Cassidy era. Those prospects are now the core of this team, and the veterans who were supposed to age out of that core - namely Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand up front, Tuukka Rask in net - have simply refused to age. Hate it or love it (I'm of the former by birth), they have been part of the league's elite for most years in the past decade-plus.

The Isles are a beautifully-constructed team made of mostly of home-grown dependable players who have accepted the fact that none of them will retire with a 100-point season under their belt but are willing to trade that off with a championship or two, courtesy of the best coach in the game, Barry Trotz (and the best goalie guru of this era in Mitch Korn). They have a player that is of all-star caliber in Mathew Barzal, but he doesn't have to be a point-per-game player to carry his teammates; there are nine forwards on this team who can get 45 to 60 points in any given year, and GM Lou Lamoriello made sure he acquired playoff-tested players like Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri to complement his core rather than take a gamble on a Taylor Hall, who now skates for Boston.

It's going to be a battle to the finish, but I think Boston has a slight edge this season. I'll be rooting for the Isles, though.

Bruins in 7

Central:
Carolina Hurricanes (1) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (3):

All praise due to the Canes and their wonderful season, their beautiful offense, their amazing defense and the fact that they may have found their next (first true?) franchise goaltender... but the Lightning are back at full force after Nikita Kucherov missed the entire season due to injury, and the Bolts are still the best team of the salary cap era, so, yeah, no, they may not win the Cup again though they're largely favourites to do so in my book, but they're going past the Hurricanes.

Lightning in 5.

West:
Colorado Avalanche (1) vs Vegas Golden Knights (2):

These are respectively the second- and third-best teams in the league so, sure, its, a bit unfair that one has to get eliminated as early as the second round, but at least they are facing one another, which is more than what can be said about top seeds most years. But this isn't as even a contest as it could be, because I do not think Vegas head coach Peter DeBoer has what it takes to outsmart his counterpart Jared Bednar - or counter the onslaught of Avalache offense.

Q: Are Vegas' goalies technically better than the Avs' #1?
A: Yes, but it doesn't matter, only one can play at a time, Marc-André Fleury is 36 and Robin Lehner is rusty.

Q: What about Vegas' strong defense?
A: With all due respect to Shea Theodore - and a little less to Alex Pietrangelo - there is no one on the Golden Knights as good as Cale Makar and Samuel Girard is also less of a household name who deserves a spot in this conversation.

Q: Is there a better line in hockey than Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog?
A: Short answer: no.
Long answer: The aforementioned Habs (Danault-Tatar-Gallagher, most effective in the league) and Bruins (Bergeron-Marchand-David Pastrnak, best two-way line who also put points on the board) lines are crazy-good, but there are two of the most electrifying players in the game here, complemented by one of the hardest-working players in the game, each of these guys is worth two Max Paciorettys and 150% of the Reilly Smith-Jonathan Marchessault-William Karlsson line. There is no Mark Stone on the Avs (or anywhere else in the NHL for that matter), but that's because they don't need to plan for any other zone than the offensive one.

Q: So where does that leave us?
A: With another post-season choke for DeBoer, who should be good to coach the Leafs in a year or two.

Avalanche in 6.