Tampa Bay Lightning: the best team of the Salary Cap era, they can beat anyone on any day, but still don't have this one in the bag.
New York Islanders: with the best coach in the world (Barry Trotz) and a magician in charge of the defense and goaltending (Mitch Korn), they are a Giant Killer. Where they have a little less of a shot than the Habs is they are much less physical, and they will not be able to wear down both the Bolts and Knights back-to-back with just their speed.
Vegas Golden Knights: contenders since their inception, this is the best defensive team they have iced yet, though it has less offensive firepower than in its second and third seasons with the departure of Paul Stastny. Their weak point is the fact that they are outcoached by nearly all remaining teams, but they have enough talent to overcome that.
Montréal Canadiens: they can shut down offensive supwerpowers, which means going through the Golden Knights and Lightning is possible, but it wouldn't be as "easy" (nothing will be easy at this point...) to get through the Isles.
Let's get to the match-ups!
Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (4):
Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: tie, but slight advantage to the Habs
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: Habs
First Line:
On paper, both teams have one of the best shut-down/outscoring first lines in the league, with a true Selke nominee on one side (Mark Stone) and the guy who should have won it this year but isn't even nominated because of writers' bias towards the Boston Bruins' Patrice Bergeron (Phillipe Danault). The fact that Tomas Tatar was not producing while nursing an injury and is no longer even dressing for games shouldn't affect our analysis since both Jake Evans (currently nursing a concussion) and Artturi Lehkonen have been able to slide in at the opposite of Brendan Gallagher (who may score a little less than his counterpart Max Pacioretty but more than makes up for the difference on grit , leadership and physical play) and keep carrying the play, which is a testament to just how effective Danault really is. We're talking about the only forward in Canada sho shut down Connor McDavid in the regular season and who kept Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at bay during the first round, then by his mere presence on the ice domesticated a Winnipeg Jets team that was without its star centre Mark Schiefele (suspended for his idiotic and predatory hit on Evans) and didn't even want to put up any kind of fight. Knights centre Chandler Stephenson has yet to reach his linemates' stature (though now is as good a time as ever). Clear advantage Montréal here.
Second Line:
Depth seems to dip in Vegas' favour, especially since their "second line" of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith was its #1 unit when they reached the Stanley Cup Final three seasons ago; Marchessault has 6 goals on his own already, and Karlsson leads the team with 11 points in 13 games so far. The Habs counter with their future #1 centre and former Vegas first-round pick in Nick Suzuki, a clutch player who can score himself or feed a sniper on each wing in Tyler Toffoli and the undersized Cole Caufield. This match-up is even, with Smith's experience compensating for his lack of production this postseason.
Forward depth:
The Canadiens roll equivalent, balanced lines with speed, grit and some form of potential scoring, with such players as Joel Armia (4 goals), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4) and Corey Perry (3) have scored important goals, with seven different forwards scoring game-winners - Toffoli (2), Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Perry, Lehkonen, Gallagher, and Paul Byron. Any line can play heroes, and having a former Cup-winning captain in Eric Staal center the fourth line just adds an intangible that plays strongly in their favour. But the Golden Knights have a checking line taht is extremely dificult to play against, as William Carrier, Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar are relentless forecheckers, and Montréal has yet to face a player like Ryan Reaves. He will toe a very uncomfortable line and bruise the living hell out of everyone he meets alongside the boards; he may be the difference-maker in this series.
Defense:
There is no doubt the Golden Knights hold the talent advantage here, with two Norris-level performers playing on the same side in Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, and that holds even more true if the Canadiens' top option on defense - Jeff Petry - is unable to suit up because of his broken finger(s). Alec Martinez and Zach Whitecloud complete a very potable top-four and Nick Holden, Brayden McNabb et Nicholas Hague are no slouches in completing the unit either. Their stickwork in pushing pucks away from the carrier is truly a sight to behold (and leave opposing forwards befuddled at first, then angry), but at least they let the opposing players into the zone mostly unscathed. Petry, Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson operate in a very different manner: they just clobber the body until it breaks and block shots as if they believed their own goalie was unable to. 11 of Vegas' forwards will be hesitant to go into the zone as the series progresses, but Reaves wil lbe dishig out their own medecine to the Habs' D-corps, which will be interesting. He may also grow impatient and get suspended for a dangerous play, which would hurt his team immensely.
Goaltending:
Future all Of Famer Marc-André Fleury has the edge here, no doubt. Although he and Carey Price have similar GAAs (1.91 vs 1.97), Fleury faced Nathan MacKinnon and the potent Colorado Avalanche offense, the team that won the Presidents' Trophy, whereas Price essentially faced an average AHL team once Scheifele was done with the series and Paul Stastny came back to play injured. Fleury also has the edge in that he's been on fire all year long, earnig a Vezina Trophy nod, whereas Price was outplayed by Jake Allen every step of the way, cost three coaches their jobs this year and hasn't exactly stolen a game this far.
This one goes the full seven games. The Canadiens might come up on top if Petry only misses one game; if not, Fleury and Reaves are why the G-Knights make it through.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs New York Islanders (3):
Tampa Bay:
Playing with bank money on account of Nikita Kucherov missing the entire season and other monies being on LTIR at the trade deadline, the Bolts are currently icing a team that is $17M above the cap, meaning even if they didn't have Tyler Johnson (whose $5M contract has been on waivers numerous times), they'd still be $12M over; that's two second-line players, give or take. That means they already had one of the best defensive corps in the league (including a Norris and Conn Smythe winner), and a first line that includes a Hart and Art Ross winner on one side and a Maurice Richard winner on the other, their second and third lines are both top-tier, and their fourth is probably a third. Plus, they have the experience of winning last season, and new face David Savard on D who not only has not won the Cup but was part of the team that surprised Tampa by sweeping them in the first roudn two years ago. He know how to beat them and will not let it happen. Oh, and they have a Vezina winner in net. While I do not agree that Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best goalie in the NHL (that would be Connor Hellebuyck, followed by Fleury and John Gibson), he is the best at stopping shots that are in the bottom foot and a half of the net, as his athleticism and speed is akin to prime Jonathan Quick in that regard, with better anticipation. If you can't aim for the top six to eight inches of net, you're uselessly raising his save percentage and getting him unnecessary praise.
Islanders:
The Isles have exactly one elite player: Mathew Barzal. He just figured out how to get free in the playoffs two games ago, so he may actually get to turn the backburners on on his offensive production, but so far, the depth pieces have gotten the job done, most notably proven palyoff performer Jean-Gabriel Pageau and breakout star Anthony Beauvillier. They are so clutch it feels like they're on the ice only when it matters most.
Grit:
If you haven't paid attention to the Central and Metro and just landed in the third round of the playoffs, you'd be inclined to think the defensive Islanders are probably playing as heavy a game as the Canadiens are, but it's actually the Lightning who are the most penalized team of the postseason - just like they'd been all year long. And New York had better hope it remains that way, because Tampa's powerplay is scoring at a 41% clip, so they can make you pay very quickly... when they're not busy making you pay a toll physically. They can play any type of game: speed, skill, toughness. Where they haven't been so tested is their patience. They're so good, they've yet to be stalled for long periods of time, so if Semyon Varlamov can shut the door long enough to get on their nerves, no one knows what will happen, which may be good news for the team whose last playoff success came during their 1980s dynasty.
Lightning in six.
Here are the MVPs for each team so far:
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov
Golden Knights: Marc-André Fleury
Islanders: Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anthony Beauvillier
Canadiens: Phillip Danault
No comments:
Post a Comment