Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Flames Preview: Mikael Backlund Autographed Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this personal blog and my collectibles one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a week, several players haven't found a team yet and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Tyler Toffoli (RW), Milan Lucic (LW), Troy Stetcher (D), Michael Stone (D), Nick Ritchie (LW), Trevor Lewis (C), Dryden Hunt (RW), and Matthew Phillips (C).

Key Arrivals: Yegor Sherangovich (C), Jordan Oesterle (D), xxx (C/LW), xxx (C), xxx (LW), xxx (D), xxx (G)

Top prospects: Jakob Pelletier (LW, 22 years old, point-per-game player in the AHL, 26th-overall pick in 2019), Dustin Wolf (G, 22 years old, .932 save percentage in the AHL), Matt Coronato (RW, 20 years old, 13th-overall pick in 2021, point-per-game player in the NCAA), and Connor Zary (C, 22 years old, 24th pick in the 2020 draft).

The Calgary Flames are a riddle in a question in quicksand in a parallel universe in a different timeline trying to prentend they were of this worls all along. They are everything you ever thought and its exact opposite. They are a two-year-old having hissy fits in need of a new downtown arena.

What makes their odds look good:
Three-quarters of this team won its division two seasons ago, and although two 100-point players left that team, they were replaced by another division winner in Jonathan Huberdeau and Stanley Cup winner Nazem Kadri. This is a much better team than what transpired last season.

Question marks: Previous GM Brad Treliving left because the Darryl Sutter problem was getting too big - both men were eventually replaced by their direct underling. Will that really be enough to chance the team's culture? Will that really get Huberdeau back to his All-Star level, or incite Elias Lindholm to re-sign?

Outlook:
This team is too good and too deep to not make the playoffs two years in a row regardless of circumstance, and with a goalie like Jacob Markstrom, once in there, they could make a serious dent into many experts' prognoses.

Prediction:
Fourth in the Pacific Division.

With news that he had been signed to a two-year contract extension, Flames utility forward Mikael Backlund was named the team's 21st captain - and first since Mark Giordano's exit at the Seattle Kraken expansion draft.

Backlund is a cerebral two-way centre who can chip in offensively, able to replace on the first two lines at a whim but at this point in his career ideally situated in the 3C role where he can shut down opposing teams' top lines and pad his stats up when playing againt middle-of-the-lineup players.

After missing the playoffs by two points last season, his end-of-season presser was steeped in disappointment, and he let float the idea that he might leave as a free agent next summer or perhaps even ask for a trade, as it seemed the drama surrounding the team had put too much weight on him, but he seems to view the new admninistration in a positive light, enough to warrant sticking around for a couple of extra seasons at least and give it an honest chance. His staying means the Flames don't have to go through a rebuild regardless of Lindholm's status and that the team can contend for a playoff spot (and likely get in).

Here he is wearing the Flames' white Reebok-designed uniform on card #178 from the 2016-17 O-Pee-Chee set, manufactured under license by Upper Deck, always a favoutite of mine to get signed:
He signed it in thick black sharpie after a game against the Montréal Canadiens, probably that same year.

Friday, September 22, 2023

Sharks Preview: Mike Grier Autograph Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this personal blog and my collectibles one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a week, several players haven't found a team yet and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Erik Karlsson (D), James Reimer (G), Andrew Agozzino (LW), Noah Gregor (C), Evgeny Svechnikov (LW), Steven Lorentz (C), Derrick Pouliot (D), and Andreas Johnsson.

Key Arrivals: Mike Hoffman (LW), Mackenzie Blackwood (G), Andrej Sustr (D), Givani Smith (RW), Anthony Duclair (LW), Filip Zadina (LW), Mikael Granlund (LW), Kyle Burroughs (D), Ryan Carpenter (C), and Jan Rutta (D)

Top prospects: William Smith (C, 18 years old, fourth-overall pick in 2023), William Eklund (LW, 20 years old, seventh-overall pick on 2021, 43 points in 54 AHL games last year), Shakir Mukhamadullin (D, 21 years old, 20th overall pick in 2020, 25 points in 67 KHL games and 10 points in 12 AHL games last season), Thomas Bordeleau (C, 21 years old, 22 goals in the AHL in 2022-23), Tristen Robins (C, 21 years old, developpig into a capable two-way forward), Filip Bystedt (C, 19 years old, 20 points in 45 games in Sweden last season), Mattias Havelid (D, 19 years old, 5'9", 165 pounds, so he will need to bulk up playing against men in Sweden), xxx (D), and Alexander Chmelevski (C, 24 years old, 48 points in 65 KHL games last year).

There is talent coming up, but the next two seasons should be just as painful as the last one - perhaps even more so with the absence of Karlsson.

What makes their odds look good:
The odds are great they finish last in the NHL and get another high pick next summer, and at some point those will add up into a decent young roster like the Ottawa Senators or New Jersey Devils have. There are a lot of veterans in their final year of their contracts (Hoffman, Duclair) who could be shipped out at the trade deadline for more future assets and furthering the tank job

Question marks:
The defensive corps and the goalies will have all the trouble in the world giving up fewer than 3.5 to 4 goals per game, which is by design - will it demoralize the young talent?

Outlook:
It's the San Jose Sharks, so I cannot commit to saying their future looks bright, but there likely will be playoffs eventually, and maybe another Western Conference run in the next decade.

Prediction:
Eighth in the Pacific Division, last in the NHL.

I really feel bad for GM Mike Grier, whom I really respected and liked as a player, for inheriting Doug Wilson's mess, brought upon by a leadership void, hiring bad coaches and doubling down and signing Karlsson to a massive extension when his acquisition didn't even fill a team need (already having Brent Burns at the same position).

But Grier was a tough customer on the ice, and I'm sure he'll get to show his Detroit-born and Boston-raised roots as a manager when the time comes, and he will not get pushed around. What's cool is his brother is also a GM, for the NFL's Miami Dolphins, who are having a terrific start to their season.

Here is the hockey-playing Grier the way I remember him best, as a member of the Edmonton Oilers at the turn of the millennium, on the gold variant signature version of card #54 from In The Game's 1998-99 Be A Player set:
It shows him wearing the team's white (then-home) uniform, advancing toward the enemy's zone. He could always be counted on for 20-some goals in his prime and 10 to 15 outside of it, while providing a hard-hitting drive that didn't get called for penalties too often. He rarely made costly mistakes, which is a trait he'll be looking to bring to his new career as well.

There is a bronze medal on his mantle as a souvenir for his lone time playing on the adult mens' Team USA squad at the 2004 World Championships.

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Predators Preview: Tyson Barrie Autograph Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this personal blog and my collectibles one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a couple of weeks, several players haven't found a team yet and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Matt Duchene (C), Ryan Johansen (C), Mark Borowiecki (D), Zach Sanford (LW), Rasmus Aplund (C), and Cal Foote (D).

Key Arrivals: Ryan O'Reilly (C), Gustav Nyquist (C), Luke Schenn (D), and Denis Gurianov (LW).

Top prospects: Yaroslav Asparov (G, 21 years old, generally seen as a "can't miss" prospect), Joakim Kemell (RW, 19 years old, exploded in the AHL but could benefit from a bit of seasoning), Luke Evangelista (RW, 21 years old, candidate for the All-Rookie Team), Zachary L'Heureux (LW, 20 years old, has a bit of Claude Lemieux in him), Matthew Wood (RW, 18 years old, an NCAA All-Star at age 17 last year), and Fedor Svechkov (C, 20 years old, did not get much of a chance in the KHL last season).

Former head coach Barry Trotz took over from the Nashville Predators' only other GM in team history, and the first thing he did was send away all the bad apples in the dressing room, and then he brought in guys who used to think they were franchise players but learned to win Stanley Cups by relying on their teammates - O'Reilly's pivot still got him a Selke and a Conn Smythe, while Schenn won two championships riding the third pair with the mighty Tampa Bay Lightning.

What makes their odds look good:
When you have a goalie like Juuse Saros, you have a chance. Factor in Roman Josi having another two-three years of prime hockey left in him and you have an above-average defense that can win you those 3-2 and 2-1 games.

Question marks: Is sophomore Tommy Novak really their #1 center? The offense is very below average, but responding to the right system and a few players playing above expectations would help drag the Preds to the middle of the pack.

Outlook:
They were a playoff bubble team last year and in terms of talent are about on the same level this year, except they have a new head coach in Andrew Brunette and his boss is one of the best bench strategists in NHL history, who will be able to help and give his protégé tips at any given time. Trotz and Brunette might be worth a few more wins, say 3 or 4, but that cannot be enough to bring Nashville to the postseason, which isn't the point this year anyway.

Prediction:
Sixth in the Central Division.

Trade deadline acquisition Tyson Barrie came over from the Edmonton Oilers last season having quarterbacked the best powerplay in NHL history (with the help of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to some extent, I guess). He can handle that task with the Predators as well, with help from Josi.

It hasn't always been perfect for Barrie, though. Since the last time I wrote about him, he also had a one-year stint with the Toronto Maple Leafs where it simply did not work out, stepping into an immuable environment, in the midst of a run of regular-season success and spectacular playoff failure; there simply was no place for him on that team. His move to Edmonton proved that it wasn't on him, however, and that he could still be a very appreciated player, both on the ice and in the locker room.

He led all NHL defensemen in scoring during the 2020-21 season, with 48 points in just 56 games, finished 12th in All-Star voting, but did not receive a single Norris Trophy vote - the first time in history the points leader at the position is entirely snubbed for the trophy.

Here he is sporting the Colorado Avalanche's white (away) uniform on card #A-TB from Upper Deck's 2015-16 Artifacts set and Autofacts sub-set:
Barrie has suited up for Team Canada multiple times, winning silver at the 2011 World Juniors and 2017 World Championships, as well as gold at the 2015 World Championships.

Friday, September 8, 2023

Lightning Preview: Steven Stamkos Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this personal blog and my collectibles one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a couple of weeks, several players haven't found a team yet and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Ross Colton (C), Alex Killorn (LW/C), Corey Perry (RW), Ian Cole (D), Patrick Maroon (LW), Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (D), and Brian Elliott (G).

Key Arrivals: Calvin De Haan (D), Conor Sheary (LW), Josh Archibald (RW), Luke Glendening (C), Logan Brown (LW), and Jonas Johansson (G).

Top prospects: Roman Schmidt (D, 20 years old, will require a year of AHL seasoning), Gage Goncalves (C, 22 years old, will jump straight to the second line in case of injury), Jack Thompson (D, 21 years old, will likely see a handful of games this season), Cole Koepke (LW, 25 years old, a spot in the bottom-six is his to lose), Gabriel Fortier (LW, 23 years old, will likely see 5-10 games this season), Isaac Howard (LW, 19 years old, will play another couple of seasons in the NCAA, Jack Finley (C, 21 years old, will require more AHL seasoning), and Niko Huuhtanen (RW, 20 years old, will play one more season in Finland before playing in the AHL to adapt to the North American ice surface).

No other team in the NHL has seen its depth depleted like the Tampa Bay Lightning in the past three to five years; the Bolts have lost the equivalent of three top-of-the-food-chain third lines in the past two offseasons and trade deadlines, in addition to a slew of first- and second-round draft picks. You would think that would close their contending window for a while, but their elite talent is so good that it will not affect them for the next two, three or perhaps even four seasons. After all, Nikita Kucherov is fresh off a 113-point season, Brayden Point got his usual 95 and even broke the 50-goal barrier, while Steven Stamkos added yet another point-per-game season to his Hall of Fame resume. Add to that a pair of #1 defenders in Mikhail Sergachev and Victor Hedman - don't get fooled by Hedman's dipping offensive stats, he's still dominant, he just surrendered some prime producing moments like first-line powerplay time to Sergachev, but they both played nearly 24 minutes a game and had simlar plus/minus and possession stats - and a top-five goalie who still has the best legs in the game in Andrei Vasilevskiy, and there is still an All-Star team's worth of players in the middle or end of their primes as the foundation.

What makes their odds look good:
The Toronto Maple Leafs may have equivalent star forwards, but no team in the East has the type of elite defensemen the Lightning has. With support from Brandon Hagel, Sheary, Nick Paul and Anthony Cirelli, there will be plenty of offense to win between 50 and 60 games this season.

Question marks: Can Tanner Jeannot step up and prove invaluable like Hagel did last year? At a cost of a first, a second and a third-round pick, or in context, a possible 2025 middle-six player, a 2026 top-six forward and a 50/50 shot at a depth player, he needs to be responsible for 2-3 wins this year and 3-5 wins next year as well as a few important playoff moments (say a couple of game-winning goals) to justify the cost of acquiring him from the Nashville Predators. Anti-vaxer Archibald lost a year and a half of play due to Covid travel restricioons while with the Edmonton Oilers and has lost a step, going from third-liner with occasional bumps to Connor McDavid's line to part-time fourth-liner. Should he make the team, he will probably love Florida.

Outlook:
Don't get me wrong: they are at the tail end of their contending window and are probably no match for the likes of the Dallas Stars or Vegas Golden Knights out West, but they can take anyone in the East (yes, including the equally depth-deprived Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins, as well as the inexperienced New Jersey Devils and coach cemetery New York Rangers), and there is no guarantee the Western finalist won't also be a team with its own issues. And this time around, for the first time in four years and just the second in six seasons, Tampa Bay has had a short postseason, getting eliminated in seven games in the first round. They are well-rested and (probably) hungry.

Prediction:
Second in the Atlantic Division.

As mentionned before, Steven Stamkos is carving himself quite the career, with little to no signs of slowing down at age 33. His days of leading the league in scoring (51 goals in 2009-10 and 60 goals in 2011-12) are probably a thing of the past in the era of McDavid, Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Leon Draisaitl - and with Alex Ovechkin still around - but his 84 points were still 23rd in the NHL last season, which would have put him first on 17 teams.

He's been around or over the point-per-game mark every year since 2016-17 after a dip in 2014-15 (43 goals and 72 points in 82 games) and 2015-16 (36 goals and 64 points in 77 games), two seasons in which his points totals may have dipped but during which he garnered some Lady Byng consideration - and even finished fourth in right wingers for the end of season All-Star Teams and finished 11th in Hart voting in 2014-15.

He has 515 goals, 541 assists and 1056 career points in 1003 regular-season games so far, and another 45 goals, 50 assists and 95 points in 123 playoff games. The only time his playoff shooting percentage was below 10% was in 2015-16, when he played just 11:55 in a single game and did not score on his two shots taken; however, his lone 2:47 of ice time in the 2019-20 is the stuff of legends, as he scored on his only shot, despite being on the ice for just three shifts in total. The goal gave the Bolts a 2-0 lead, paving the way to a 5-2 victory.

Here he is wearing Tampa's white (away) uniform, on card #6 from Upper Deck's 2014-15 SP Game-Used Edition set and Jersey Card sub-set:
It features a matching game-worn jersey swatch.

Internationally, he has won gold medals in 2008 (World Juniors) and 2016 (World Cup) and was a silver medalist at the 2009 World Championships playing for Team Canada. He has also represented his country in 2007 (U18s and Ivan Hlinka tournaments), as well as the 2010 and 2013 World Championships.

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Kraken Preview: Jared McCann Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this personal blog and my collectibles one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start in a couple of weeks, several players haven't found a team yet and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Joonas Donskoi (RW), Daniel Sprong (RW), Carson Soucy (D), Ryan Donato (RW), Martin Jones (G), Morgan Geekie (RW), and Jesper Froden (RW/LW).

Key arrivals: Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (C), Brian Dumoulin (D), Kailer Yamamoto (RW), and Connor Carrick (D).

Top prospects: Shane Wright (C, 19 years old, went from projected first-overall pick to fourth to being sent down to Juniors to being named captain of Team Canada's World Juniors team to ending up sixth in team scoring - fourth among centres! - and a full 16 points behind Connor Bedard in seven games, still probably a future middle-six player), Ryker Evans (D, 21 years old, 44 points in 77 AHL games last season), David Goyette (C, 19 years old, a bit on the short side but dominant in the OHL), Ty Nelson (D, 19 years old, undersized speedy defenseman with nice offensive skills), Jagged Firkus (RW, 19 years old, good offensive skills but needs to add muscle to his 153-pound frame), and Eduard Sale (W, 18 years old, was named the 2022-23 Rookie Of The Year in Czechia).

I didn't have them in the playoffs last year and they ended up eliminating the reigning Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche, so I'm aware I may have to eat my words at some point, but this roster is two goalies, a GM and a head coach short of making an actual permanent dent in a divisional race of the playoffs. Like the light blue on their white uniform, it's probably NHL-caliber, but... there's just something missing.

What makes their odds look good:
The Seattle Kraken have been on an upward trajectory since coming into the NHL two seasons ago, with steady progress and smart salary cap management. They had 13 players hit the double-digit mark in goals last season - six of them with 20 or more - two more at nine, and one apiece at eight and seven. As far as I remember, I have never seen this balanced an offense in practice.

Question marks: What about that goaltending, eh? Team goaltending below ,900 is simply unacceptable in today's NHL.

Outlook:
GM Ron Francis wanted depth - essentially icing four second lines - but without the elite talent that the Vegas Golden Knights have; hopefully the draft can remedy that in time. There is definitely a solid base, but Francis has not poven to be able to get to that next step as a manager, to take a very good roster and turn it into a champion, which is why he was let go in 2018 as GM of the Carolina Hurricanes.

Prediction:
Fifth in the Pacific Division.

Jared McCann led the Kraken with 40 goals last year in what may end up proving to be a career year, but he can certainly hit 30-35 goals on a consistent basis. A former first-round pick (24th overall in 2014, Vancouver Canucks), fans expected McCann to be a top-six player right away and the fact that he wasn't seemed to have hurt his confidence.

A trade to the Florida Panthers didn't fix anything, and as the league forged an opinion that he may be at best a third-liner, the Pittsburgh Penguins offered him that role on a silver platter; not only did he excel at it, but he also showed that he still had that sparkle - so much so that the Pens were convinced the Kraken would select him in the expansion draft; to at least recoup an asset, they traded his rights to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who wanted to ensure Alexander Kerfoot remained with the organization; offering up McCann nearly guaranteed he would be taken, thus semi-protecting Kerfoot for the remainder of his contract with the Leafs. He signed a two-year deal with the Arizona Coyotes this summer, as the Leafs went through an organizational shift at the bottom of their roster.

In the second of a five-year deal with a cap hit of $5M, McCann will no doubt be worth his salary for the remainder of his contract. He loves being relied upon for goals and it will be at least three or four years until Seattle can develop a finisher who will be able to challenge him for his spot. This is a perfect fit for both player and team.

Here he is as a rookie with the Canucks, wearing their white (away) uniform, on card #J-JM from Upper Deck's 2015-16 Champ's set and Relics / Rookie Relics sub-sets:
It features a blue "event-worn" jersey swatch from a rookie photo shoot.

Internationally, McCann suited up for Canada at the 2019 World Championships, winning silver and finishing the tournament with 2 goals and 5 points in 10 games.

Monday, September 4, 2023

Flyers Preview: Keith Jones Autographed Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: Unlike in the distant past where I would post different texts on this personal blog and my collectibles one, I've been using a new format for the past couple of years, where I'll copy the same text on each one. As a father of two young kids, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. This year again, the entire scope of the analysis will take place first and the featured player will have a direct or perhaps indirect connection to what's written, below.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camps being set to start in a couple of weeks, several players haven't found a team yet and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Kevin Hayes (C), Ivan Provorov (D), Kevin Connaughton (D), James Van Riemsdyk (LW), Kiefer Bellows (LW), Tony DeAngelo (D), Brendan Lemieux (LW), and Justin Braun (D).

Key Arrivals: Marc Staal (D), Sean Walker (D), Garnet Hathaway (RW), Ryan Poehling (C), Cal Petersen (G), and Victor Mete (D).

Top prospects: Matvei Michkov (RW, 18 years old, in the KHL for at least three more years), Tyson Foerster (RW, 21 years old, had 48 points in 66 games in his AHL rookie season last year), Bobby Brink (RW, 22 years old, missed most of last season due to injury), Cutter Gauthier (C/LW, 19 years old, looked like a star in the NCAA as well as the World Juniors), Emil Andrae (D, 21 years old, impressed in the Swedish league and AHL last season), and Elliot Desnoyers (LW, 21 years old, 44 points in 65 AHL games last season).

What makes their odds look good:
There is a plan in place, and GM Daniel Brière will be stockpiling young players and draft capital for the next few seasons; head coach John Tortorella will instill good habits with the help of veterans he knows well, such as Staal. There might not be another generational talent to tank for in the next three or four drafts, but what matters is drafting talented players who work hard to have a competitive team when the time is right.

Question marks: Who will be kept as part of the core among young veterans like Travis Konecny, Carter Hart and Travis Sanheim?

Outlook:
This isn't an accidental bottoming out, this is a calculated move to turn over nearly the entire roster and hopefully contend when the current veteran cream of the Metropolitan Division - your Carolina Hurricanes, New York Rangers, and Pittsburgh Penguins - start to drop in the standings in four or five seasons, with just the New Jersey Devils remaining as a power, and even then, possibly in decline.

Prediction:
Eighth in the Metropolitan Division, bottom-five in the NHL.

The day Brière was announced as the new team GM, Keith Jones got the nod as the Philadelphia Flyers' new team President of Hockey Operations, a job for which his co-analyst on TNT NHL broadcasts, Ed Olczyk, was also up for; ultimately, as is their modus operandi, the team went with their alumnus.

A solid middle-six player with some power forward skills, Jones skated part-time with the likes of Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Eric Lindros and John LeClair in his day, and was a respected member of the dressing room. So much so that his good relations with just about everyone around the league will surely help the Flyers and Brière in their relationships with other teams.

I mostly remember Jones on the Colorado Avalanche; he was like a "clean" version of Tom Wilson, both having in common that they look like they should consistently score 30-40 goals, with neither having topped the 25-goal mark as of 2023.

Having watched Jones analyze the game and crack jokes for the past 10-15 years on TV (all within acceptable social standards), however, I am relatively confident that he can handle a front office job on one of the premiere rich organizations in the sport. I certainly wish him well.

Here he is sporting the Flyers' black (third / home) uniform on card #304 from Pacific's flagship 1999-2000 Pacific set, crashing into the New York Rangers' Mike Richter:
He signed it in blue sharpie as a guest at a card convention, back when one didn't have to pay extra on top of the entry ticket to get autographs at those events, circa 2005 or so.

Thursday, October 7, 2021

Sens Preview: Colin White Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Evgenii Dadonov (RW), Ryan Dzingel (F), Artem Anisimov (C), Derek Stepan (C), Marcus Hogberg (G), Joey Daccord (G), Matthew Peca (F)

Key Arrivals: Michael Del Zotto (D), Nick Holden (D), Kole Sherwood (RW)

Top prospects: Shane Pinto (C), Filip Gustavsson (G), Jake Sanderson (D), Jacob Bernard-Docker (D), Tyler Boucher (W), Roby Jarventie (LW), Lassi Thomson (D), Ridley Greig (LW), Tyler Kleven (D), Zack Ostapchuk (LW), Egor Sokolov (RW), Mark Kastelic (C), Maxence Guenette (D)

It would take a lot of things to go right with the development of the Ottawa Senators' young stars for the team to be able to contend for a playoff spot until the end of March... but chances are a lot of them will. Most of the forwards will take a step forward (although Tim Stützle may go through a sophomore slump, particularly if asked to fill the #2 centre role instead of remaining on the wing), and the defense showed during the final month of the 2020-21 season that they were ready for more responsibilities. As a matter of fact, had the Sens received just league average goaltending from Matt Murray in any of his first 10 games, they team would have been a lock for the playoffs, seeing as they fell a single point behind the Montréal Canadiens who were in a tailspin at the end of the season, because of a compressed schedule due to a Covid outbreak.

What makes their odds look good:
Finishing the season with a 10-4 record was impressive, but it may be a mirage, due to teams resting players or being unprepared to face them because they were at the bottom of the standings. Illusion or not, these young players learned to win and can now bank that experience for future use.

Question marks: Can sophomore Josh Norris continue progressing to keep a stranglehold on the #1 centre role? Will Murray bounce back, or has he simply lost his way? How many games will Brady Tkachuk miss as a contract holdout, and will it cost him the captaincy (I, for one, would give it to Thomas Chabot at this point, who has bought into what the team is looking to build by signing the eight-year deal that GM Pierre Dorion hopes to build other contracts around)?

Outlook:
This team will be a powerhouse three years from now, it's just a matter of gaining more experience, some of the current contenders taking a step back, and Tkachuk deciding if he wants in or if he'll conspire with brother Matthew to eventually land with the St. Louis Blues together.

Prediction:
Tied for 4th in the Atlantic Division, with the Boston Bruins and Habs.

One key player in the Sens' rebuild had been Colin White, a 2015 first-round pick (21st overall) who plays well in all three zones, once thought to be the team's next first-line pivot (which is why he was given a six-year deal averaging $4.75M after a strong rookie season in 2019) but who can go up and down the lineup without hurting the team while amassing anywhere between 25 and 45 points, perhaps with a peak of 60.

Unfortunately, he will miss the entire 2021-22 season after falling awkwardly and dislocating his right shoulder in a pre-season game.

The good news for the Sens is the Canadiens and Bruins also have plenty of injury troubles to start the season, as do the Pittsburgh Penguins who will be competing for the same Wild Card playoff spot - and Ottawa has the most depth and best prospects of the lot.

Here is White, wearing the Senators' white (away) uniform from a few years ago, on card #DD-CW from Upper Deck's 2017-18 Black Diamond collection and Diamond Debut Relics sub-set:
It features a matching white swatch from a photo shoot.

Friday, September 24, 2021

Habs Preview: Christian Dvorak: Two Autographed Cards

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.
Key exits: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C), Phillip Danault (C), Corey Perry (RW), Jordan Weal (C), Cale Fleury (D), Jon Merrill (D), Tomas Tatar (LW), Eric Staal (C), Erik Gustafsson (D)

Key Arrivals: David Savard (D), Cédric Paquette (LW), Mathieu Perreault (C/LW), Jean-Sébastien Dea (C), Mike Hoffman (LW), Chris Wideman (D), Sami Niku (D), Samuel Montembeault (G)

Top prospects: Cole Caufield (RW), Cayden Primeau (G), Kaiden Guhle (D), Mattias Norlinder (D), Jordan Harris (D), Jan Mysak (LW), Ryan Poehling (C), Oliver Kapanen (C), Luke Tuch (LW), Logan Mailloux (D), Gianni Fairbrother (D), Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (LW), Joël Teasdale (LW)

I don't buy that the Montréal Canadiens played in the weakest division last year, because they didn't: the West had the three California teams, which were essentially 30 free wins for the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Habs had to contend with Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Connor Hellebuyck in any given game while the rest of the league faced much easier matchups down the middle and in net.

What makes their odds look good:
The team gained a lot of experience during last season's playoff run to the Stanley Cup Final, and many of the returning faces up front (Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli, Caufield, Josh Anderson, Joel Armia) have room to grow their game, the leadership rock remains stable with Brendan Gallagher despite Shea Weber's probable absence, and the defense is a brick wall only the Tampa Bay Lightning can pierce... year after year.

Question marks: Will Weber's health force him to retire? Which is the real Carey Price: the regular-season bottom-dweller of the past four seasons, or the quality playoff starter from last year's run? Will the team actually keep Jonathan Drouin, or is he off to clear his mind with former teammates in Colorado, or adding to a top-six in Edmonton?

Outlook:
The Atlantic is stacked. The Bolts remain the gold standard, the Florida Panthers finally delivered on par with their talent, the Toronto Maple Leafs can outscore their uncertainty between the pipes, the Ottawa Senators are on the rise, and the Boston Bruins, although older and stating to see core pieces retire, can still hold their own; the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres don't matter in the playoff conversation, but finishing ahead of the fifth-place team in the Metropolitan does, as the team with the most points in slots 7 and 8 in the Conference make it to the dance, so the Bs, Sens and Habs may cancel each other out in the end.

Prediction:
Tied for 4th in the Atlantic Division, outside the playoff picture.

Going by comments on social media, Montréal fans do not seem to have a fucking clue how important Danault was to this team. His line with Tatar and Gallagher was the most potent for goals and shot differentials at five-on-five for the past three years combined, and in any given year also held their ground and were top-three, matching favourably with the likes of McDavid/Draisaitl/whoever, Brad Marchand/Patrice Bergeron/David Pastrnak and Gabriel Landeskog/Nathan MacKinnon/Mikko Rantanen. Even when they didn't score, their 60-point pace mixed with defensive acumen made them a better a more effective unit than any other unit in the league, including those with multiple 100-point players. In last year's playoffs, Danault even took most draws when his line wasn't on the ice.

Acquired in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes, Christian Dvorak is a 25-year-old centre who wins faceoffs, scores 15-20 goals a year and collects some 45-60 points (pro-rated) at $4.45M per, for four more seasons. He covers 80% of what Danault brought, with added net-front presence in the offensive zone and is the epitome of "cost certainty", which is nice to have under a salary cap. He cost more (a first-rounder and a second-rounder) than the Habs received for Kotkaniemi (a first and a third), who could hit the 50-point mark this season and be a very good player five years from now - although that is no certainty, especially to those who saw him fall to the ice five times per game for the past three years. Like Price and Alex Galchenyuk before him, "KK" was rushed to the Big Show way too soon for his own good.

The Canadiens' centre depth took a big hit this summer, and I'm afraid Dvorak has big shoes to fill, although casual fans might not realize just how clownesque they really are - it's a good thing McDavid and Draisaitl are in the Pacific Division this year. Dvorak has evolved nicely from the 2016 World Juniors' bronze-winning Team USA squad as a much more complete 200-foot player, but he is not the player who accumulated five more points than Mitch Marner (121 to 116) when both were teammates in their final year of Juniors playing for the OHL's London Knights.

This is what he looked like in recent years, wearing the Coyotes' purple and black (home) uniform on card #156 from Upper Deck's 2019-20 Series 1 set:
And here he is wearing their correspondig white (away) uniform, on card #144 from the 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee collection by UD:
He signed them in (fading) black sharpie before Covid-19 hit.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

Lightning Preview: Andrei Vasilevskiy Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: at this point, despite training camp being set to start in less than two weeks, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Yanni Gourde (C), Blake Coleman (LW), Barclay Goodrow (RW), Tyler Johnson (C), David Savard (D), Luke Schenn (D), Curtis McElhinney (G)

Key Arrivals: Brian Elliott (G), Corey Perry (RW), Zach Bogosian (D), Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (C), Charles Hudon (C)

Top prospects: Alex Barré-Boulet (C), Roman Schmidt (D), Boris Katchouk (LW), Taylor Raddysh (RW), Simon Ryfors (C), Odeen Tutfo (C), Cal Foote (D), Hugo Alnefelt (G), Jack Finley (C), Nick Perbix (D), Dylan Duke (C), Cole Koepke (LW), Gage Goncalves (C)

I have called the Tampa Bay Lightning the "best-assembled team in the cap era", but "best team" would be just as fitting. Even past Rocket Richard Trophy winner and captain Steven Stamkos, Hart and Art Ross winner Nikita Kucherov, Vezina and Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy and Norris and Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman, there is still the ever-clutch antics of point-per-game player Brayden Point, two-way star Anthony Cirelli, playoff hero Alex Killorn, consistent beast Ondrej Palat, heart-and-soul grinder Pat Maroon, future Norris winner Mikhail Sergachev, All-Star Ryan McDonagh, sophomore Foote... they're like the Canadian Olympic team, they could ice two teams and still be serious contenders.

What makes their odds look good:
They are the back-to-back champions and replaced every departed player with their equivalent (at least on paper).

Question marks: They lost their entire third line (Gourde, Coleman and Goodrow), which had been essential for them last postseason - while Coleman and Goodrow also led the team with over 100 hits apiece in the regular season, followed by Schenn, with 99, who also left. But they have players lined up to replace them, both old (Perry, the returning Bogosian) and young (Barré-Boulet) and in-between (Bellemare and Hudon).

Outlook:
This team can withstand missing an entire season of Stamkos and win the Cup. This team can withstand missing an entire season of Kucherov and win the Cup. This team can withstand a sub-par postseason by Hedman and win the Cup. They could possibly only get challenged by losing two MVP-level players, as losing "just" one clearly still had them on top of the rest of the league. We have three more years of them being heavy contenders for the title - or until they get bored and tired of winning.

Prediction:
1st in the Atlantic Division.

Of course, Vasilevskiy will have a great say on whether the Bolts finish first, second (if he misses time to injury), third (if for some reason he falters and completely loses his way) or fourth (if he misses nearly the entire season due to unforeseen cicumstances), but unless the team's plane crashes altogether, Tampa will make the playoffs and be a threat to win it all again this year. The only thing standing between Tampa Bay and a third consecutive Stanley Cup is fatigue - not just accrued from the last two championship runs, but also because a lot of their best players (Vasilevskiy, Hedman, Kucherov, Palat, Point, McDonagh, possibly Stamkos) will be representing their countries in the Olympics mid-season.

You may recall my attempts at ranking Vasi with the best of the best last season, admitting he was currently the best in the world at covering the bottom-third of the net, but that he had flaws up high; in terms of "which goalie would be best playing behind the same team as his counterparts", I would likely have him second behind the Winnipeg Jets' Connor Hellebuyck with an asterix for John Gibson in that he would be capable to elevate his game to #2. Rounding out my top-five for the upcoming season are Marc-André Fleury and Jacob Markstrom, with Robin Lehner right outside. Thatcher Demko is making a strong case for consideration as well. In terms of a farther future, say five years down the line, Spencer Knight, Cayden Primeau and Devon Levi are probably the bigger names coming, ahead of Carter Hart, who I do not necessarily view as a future perennial Vezina candidate the way many pundits do.

Here is #88 sporting the Bolts' blue (home) uniform on card #GJ-AV from Upper Deck's 2017-18 Series 1 set and UD Game Jersey sub-set:
It features a matching game-worn jersey swatch.

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Oilers Preview: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Adam Larsson (D), James Neal (LW), Alex Chiasson (W), Ethan Bear (D), Caleb Jones (D), Dominik Kahun (LW), Tyler Ennis (LW), Jujhar Khaira (C), Dmitry Kulikov (D), Joakim Nygard (LW)

Key Arrivals: Duncan Keith (D), Zach Hyman (LW), Cody Ceci (D), Warren Foegele (LW), Derek Ryan (RW)

Top prospects: Evan Bouchard (D), Dylan Holloway (C), Raphaël Lavoie (RW), Xavier Bourgault (C), Philip Broberg (D), Carter Savoie (LW), Ryan McLeod (C), Tyler Benson (LW), Ilya Konovalov (G), Olivier Rodrigue (G), Stuart Skinner (G), Tyler Tullio (C), Dmitri Samorukov (D)

As a lifelong Edmonton Oilers fan, I must admit the departures of Bear and Jones were baffling, particularly with the team unable to keep Larsson in the mix, who would have been the ideal partner for Keith on a second pairing.

What makes their odds look good:
They have the best player on the planet (Connor McDavid) and the third- or fourth-best centre on earth (Leon Draisaitl), who are finally complemented by a decent surrounding cast at nearly every position...

Question marks: Will the goaltending duo of 41-year-old Mike Smith and the untradeable Mikko Koskinen (he of the 3.17 goals-against average and .899 save percetage last season) hold up or anchor the team?

Outlook:
The Vegas Golden Knights are the cream of the Pacific Division, so much so that they can withstand injuries to an entire line from their top-six and an elite defenseman without worrying aout losing home-ice advantage in the first two rounds, but the Oilers are definitely the best of what's left, if only because of their firepower up front. Their defense is also no longer an issue, with Darnell Nurse reaching elite status himself and Bouchard making for a nice wildcard to have, in addition to such steady defensive defensemen as Kris Russell and (believe it or not) Ceci, while a guy like Tyson Barrie can produce upwards of 50 points from the blue line.

Prediction:
Second in the Pacific Division.

For the past three years, most of the focus in Edmonton has been centered around McDavid and Draisaitl, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins figuring as an afterthought at best and perhaps a serious question mark regarding his production versus his salary and re-signing value, a situation GM Ken Holland dealt with well last summer by signing him to a long extention that diminished his cap hit by a little bit, saving the team nearly a million per season. I believe last year's points totals (13 goals, 19 assists and 35 points in 52 games, for a points-per-game average of 0.67 as a 27-year-old) to be an outlier in terms of his prime (0.77 PPG at 24, 0.84 at 25, 0.94 at 26), and that hovering between the third line when playing on the road and manning the second unit with Hyman and Kailer Yamamoto at home will enable him to return to at least 0.75 points per game, possibly 0.8 if he gets a few looks with either of the two superstars here and there.

As a former first-overall pick (2011), he cannot be considered on even footing with McDavid as a generational player, but he can be seen as a success, particularly in light of other recent Oiler first-overall players like Nail Yakupov. In his draft year, he currently ranks sixth in point production behind Nikita Kucherov (58th overall), Gabriel Landeskog (2nd), Mark Scheifele (7th), Jonathan Huberdeau (3rd) and Johnny Gaudreau (104th), and ahead of the likes of Sean Couturier (8th), Mika Zibanejad (6th), Ondrej Palat (208th), J.T. Miller (15th), Dougie Hamilton (9th), and Vincent Trocheck (64th). I believe he will catch up to Gaudreau, but Couturier and Zibanejad will give him a run for his money in terms of who will round out that draft class' top-five when their careers are over.

Here he is wearing Edmonton's orange (home) uniform on card #GJ-RN from Upper Deck's 2020-21 Series 1 collection and UD Game Jersey sub-set:
It features a white swatch that is certified as having been used in an NHL game. I was pretty stoked to land it, as it's my first RNH "hit" ever.