Sens Preview: Colin White Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Evgenii Dadonov (RW), Ryan Dzingel (F), Artem Anisimov (C), Derek Stepan (C), Marcus Hogberg (G), Joey Daccord (G), Matthew Peca (F)

Key Arrivals: Michael Del Zotto (D), Nick Holden (D), Kole Sherwood (RW)

Top prospects: Shane Pinto (C), Filip Gustavsson (G), Jake Sanderson (D), Jacob Bernard-Docker (D), Tyler Boucher (W), Roby Jarventie (LW), Lassi Thomson (D), Ridley Greig (LW), Tyler Kleven (D), Zack Ostapchuk (LW), Egor Sokolov (RW), Mark Kastelic (C), Maxence Guenette (D)

It would take a lot of things to go right with the development of the Ottawa Senators' young stars for the team to be able to contend for a playoff spot until the end of March... but chances are a lot of them will. Most of the forwards will take a step forward (although Tim Stützle may go through a sophomore slump, particularly if asked to fill the #2 centre role instead of remaining on the wing), and the defense showed during the final month of the 2020-21 season that they were ready for more responsibilities. As a matter of fact, had the Sens received just league average goaltending from Matt Murray in any of his first 10 games, they team would have been a lock for the playoffs, seeing as they fell a single point behind the Montréal Canadiens who were in a tailspin at the end of the season, because of a compressed schedule due to a Covid outbreak.

What makes their odds look good:
Finishing the season with a 10-4 record was impressive, but it may be a mirage, due to teams resting players or being unprepared to face them because they were at the bottom of the standings. Illusion or not, these young players learned to win and can now bank that experience for future use.

Question marks: Can sophomore Josh Norris continue progressing to keep a stranglehold on the #1 centre role? Will Murray bounce back, or has he simply lost his way? How many games will Brady Tkachuk miss as a contract holdout, and will it cost him the captaincy (I, for one, would give it to Thomas Chabot at this point, who has bought into what the team is looking to build by signing the eight-year deal that GM Pierre Dorion hopes to build other contracts around)?

Outlook:
This team will be a powerhouse three years from now, it's just a matter of gaining more experience, some of the current contenders taking a step back, and Tkachuk deciding if he wants in or if he'll conspire with brother Matthew to eventually land with the St. Louis Blues together.

Prediction:
Tied for 4th in the Atlantic Division, with the Boston Bruins and Habs.

One key player in the Sens' rebuild had been Colin White, a 2015 first-round pick (21st overall) who plays well in all three zones, once thought to be the team's next first-line pivot (which is why he was given a six-year deal averaging $4.75M after a strong rookie season in 2019) but who can go up and down the lineup without hurting the team while amassing anywhere between 25 and 45 points, perhaps with a peak of 60.

Unfortunately, he will miss the entire 2021-22 season after falling awkwardly and dislocating his right shoulder in a pre-season game.

The good news for the Sens is the Canadiens and Bruins also have plenty of injury troubles to start the season, as do the Pittsburgh Penguins who will be competing for the same Wild Card playoff spot - and Ottawa has the most depth and best prospects of the lot.

Here is White, wearing the Senators' white (away) uniform from a few years ago, on card #DD-CW from Upper Deck's 2017-18 Black Diamond collection and Diamond Debut Relics sub-set:

It features a matching white swatch from a photo shoot.

Habs Preview: Christian Dvorak: Two Autographed Cards

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C), Phillip Danault (C), Corey Perry (RW), Jordan Weal (C), Cale Fleury (D), Jon Merrill (D), Tomas Tatar (LW), Eric Staal (C), Erik Gustafsson (D)

Key Arrivals: David Savard (D), Cédric Paquette (LW), Mathieu Perreault (C/LW), Jean-Sébastien Dea (C), Mike Hoffman (LW), Chris Wideman (D), Sami Niku (D), Samuel Montembeault (G)

Top prospects: Cole Caufield (RW), Cayden Primeau (G), Kaiden Guhle (D), Mattias Norlinder (D), Jordan Harris (D), Jan Mysak (LW), Ryan Poehling (C), Oliver Kapanen (C), Luke Tuch (LW), Logan Mailloux (D), Gianni Fairbrother (D), Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (LW), Joël Teasdale (LW)

I don't buy that the Montréal Canadiens played in the weakest division last year, because they didn't: the West had the three California teams, which were essentially 30 free wins for the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Habs had to contend with Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Connor Hellebuyck in any given game while the rest of the league faced much easier matchups down the middle and in net.

What makes their odds look good:
The team gained a lot of experience during last season's playoff run to the Stanley Cup Final, and many of the returning faces up front (Nick Suzuki, Tyler Toffoli, Caufield, Josh Anderson, Joel Armia) have room to grow their game, the leadership rock remains stable with Brendan Gallagher despite Shea Weber's probable absence, and the defense is a brick wall only the Tampa Bay Lightning can pierce... year after year.

Question marks: Will Weber's health force him to retire? Which is the real Carey Price: the regular-season bottom-dweller of the past four seasons, or the quality playoff starter from last year's run? Will the team actually keep Jonathan Drouin, or is he off to clear his mind with former teammates in Colorado, or adding to a top-six in Edmonton?

Outlook:
The Atlantic is stacked. The Bolts remain the gold standard, the Florida Panthers finally delivered on par with their talent, the Toronto Maple Leafs can outscore their uncertainty between the pipes, the Ottawa Senators are on the rise, and the Boston Bruins, although older and stating to see core pieces retire, can still hold their own; the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres don't matter in the playoff conversation, but finishing ahead of the fifth-place team in the Metropolitan does, as the team with the most points in slots 7 and 8 in the Conference make it to the dance, so the Bs, Sens and Habs may cancel each other out in the end.

Prediction:
Tied for 4th in the Atlantic Division, outside the playoff picture.

Going by comments on social media, Montréal fans do not seem to have a fucking clue how important Danault was to this team. His line with Tatar and Gallagher was the most potent for goals and shot differentials at five-on-five for the past three years combined, and in any given year also held their ground and were top-three, matching favourably with the likes of McDavid/Draisaitl/whoever, Brad Marchand/Patrice Bergeron/David Pastrnak and Gabriel Landeskog/Nathan MacKinnon/Mikko Rantanen. Even when they didn't score, their 60-point pace mixed with defensive acumen made them a better a more effective unit than any other unit in the league, including those with multiple 100-point players. In last year's playoffs, Danault even took most draws when his line wasn't on the ice.

Acquired in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes, Christian Dvorak is a 25-year-old centre who wins faceoffs, scores 15-20 goals a year and collects some 45-60 points (pro-rated) at $4.45M per, for four more seasons. He covers 80% of what Danault brought, with added net-front presence in the offensive zone and is the epitome of "cost certainty", which is nice to have under a salary cap. He cost more (a first-rounder and a second-rounder) than the Habs received for Kotkaniemi (a first and a third), who could hit the 50-point mark this season and be a very good player five years from now - although that is no certainty, especially to those who saw him fall to the ice five times per game for the past three years. Like Price and Alex Galchenyuk before him, "KK" was rushed to the Big Show way too soon for his own good.

The Canadiens' centre depth took a big hit this summer, and I'm afraid Dvorak has big shoes to fill, although casual fans might not realize just how clownesque they really are - it's a good thing McDavid and Draisaitl are in the Pacific Division this year. Dvorak has evolved nicely from the 2016 World Juniors' bronze-winning Team USA squad as a much more complete 200-foot player, but he is not the player who accumulated five more points than Mitch Marner (121 to 116) when both were teammates in their final year of Juniors playing for the OHL's London Knights.

This is what he looked like in recent years, wearing the Coyotes' purple and black (home) uniform on card #156 from Upper Deck's 2019-20 Series 1 set:

And here he is wearing their correspondig white (away) uniform, on card #144 from the 2018-19 O-Pee-Chee collection by UD:

He signed them in (fading) black sharpie before Covid-19 hit.

Lightning Preview: Andrei Vasilevskiy Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: at this point, despite training camp being set to start in less than two weeks, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Yanni Gourde (C), Blake Coleman (LW), Barclay Goodrow (RW), Tyler Johnson (C), David Savard (D), Luke Schenn (D), Curtis McElhinney (G)

Key Arrivals: Brian Elliott (G), Corey Perry (RW), Zach Bogosian (D), Pierre-Édouard Bellemare (C), Charles Hudon (C)

Top prospects: Alex Barré-Boulet (C), Roman Schmidt (D), Boris Katchouk (LW), Taylor Raddysh (RW), Simon Ryfors (C), Odeen Tutfo (C), Cal Foote (D), Hugo Alnefelt (G), Jack Finley (C), Nick Perbix (D), Dylan Duke (C), Cole Koepke (LW), Gage Goncalves (C)

I have called the Tampa Bay Lightning the "best-assembled team in the cap era", but "best team" would be just as fitting. Even past Rocket Richard Trophy winner and captain Steven Stamkos, Hart and Art Ross winner Nikita Kucherov, Vezina and Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy and Norris and Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman, there is still the ever-clutch antics of point-per-game player Brayden Point, two-way star Anthony Cirelli, playoff hero Alex Killorn, consistent beast Ondrej Palat, heart-and-soul grinder Pat Maroon, future Norris winner Mikhail Sergachev, All-Star Ryan McDonagh, sophomore Foote... they're like the Canadian Olympic team, they could ice two teams and still be serious contenders.

What makes their odds look good:
They are the back-to-back champions and replaced every departed player with their equivalent (at least on paper).

Question marks: They lost their entire third line (Gourde, Coleman and Goodrow), which had been essential for them last postseason - while Coleman and Goodrow also led the team with over 100 hits apiece in the regular season, followed by Schenn, with 99, who also left. But they have players lined up to replace them, both old (Perry, the returning Bogosian) and young (Barré-Boulet) and in-between (Bellemare and Hudon).

Outlook:
This team can withstand missing an entire season of Stamkos and win the Cup. This team can withstand missing an entire season of Kucherov and win the Cup. This team can withstand a sub-par postseason by Hedman and win the Cup. They could possibly only get challenged by losing two MVP-level players, as losing "just" one clearly still had them on top of the rest of the league. We have three more years of them being heavy contenders for the title - or until they get bored and tired of winning.

Prediction:
1st in the Atlantic Division.

Of course, Vasilevskiy will have a great say on whether the Bolts finish first, second (if he misses time to injury), third (if for some reason he falters and completely loses his way) or fourth (if he misses nearly the entire season due to unforeseen cicumstances), but unless the team's plane crashes altogether, Tampa will make the playoffs and be a threat to win it all again this year. The only thing standing between Tampa Bay and a third consecutive Stanley Cup is fatigue - not just accrued from the last two championship runs, but also because a lot of their best players (Vasilevskiy, Hedman, Kucherov, Palat, Point, McDonagh, possibly Stamkos) will be representing their countries in the Olympics mid-season.

You may recall my attempts at ranking Vasi with the best of the best last season, admitting he was currently the best in the world at covering the bottom-third of the net, but that he had flaws up high; in terms of "which goalie would be best playing behind the same team as his counterparts", I would likely have him second behind the Winnipeg Jets' Connor Hellebuyck with an asterix for John Gibson in that he would be capable to elevate his game to #2. Rounding out my top-five for the upcoming season are Marc-André Fleury and Jacob Markstrom, with Robin Lehner right outside. Thatcher Demko is making a strong case for consideration as well. In terms of a farther future, say five years down the line, Spencer Knight, Cayden Primeau and Devon Levi are probably the bigger names coming, ahead of Carter Hart, who I do not necessarily view as a future perennial Vezina candidate the way many pundits do.

Here is #88 sporting the Bolts' blue (home) uniform on card #GJ-AV from Upper Deck's 2017-18 Series 1 set and UD Game Jersey sub-set:

It features a matching game-worn jersey swatch.

Oilers Preview: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Adam Larsson (D), James Neal (LW), Alex Chiasson (W), Ethan Bear (D), Caleb Jones (D), Dominik Kahun (LW), Tyler Ennis (LW), Jujhar Khaira (C), Dmitry Kulikov (D), Joakim Nygard (LW)

Key Arrivals: Duncan Keith (D), Zach Hyman (LW), Cody Ceci (D), Warren Foegele (LW), Derek Ryan (RW)

Top prospects: Evan Bouchard (D), Dylan Holloway (C), Raphaël Lavoie (RW), Xavier Bourgault (C), Philip Broberg (D), Carter Savoie (LW), Ryan McLeod (C), Tyler Benson (LW), Ilya Konovalov (G), Olivier Rodrigue (G), Stuart Skinner (G), Tyler Tullio (C), Dmitri Samorukov (D)

As a lifelong Edmonton Oilers fan, I must admit the departures of Bear and Jones were baffling, particularly with the team unable to keep Larsson in the mix, who would have been the ideal partner for Keith on a second pairing.

What makes their odds look good:
They have the best player on the planet (Connor McDavid) and the third- or fourth-best centre on earth (Leon Draisaitl), who are finally complemented by a decent surrounding cast at nearly every position...

Question marks: Will the goaltending duo of 41-year-old Mike Smith and the untradeable Mikko Koskinen (he of the 3.17 goals-against average and .899 save percetage last season) hold up or anchor the team?

Outlook:
The Vegas Golden Knights are the cream of the Pacific Division, so much so that they can withstand injuries to an entire line from their top-six and an elite defenseman without worrying aout losing home-ice advantage in the first two rounds, but the Oilers are definitely the best of what's left, if only because of their firepower up front. Their defense is also no longer an issue, with Darnell Nurse reaching elite status himself and Bouchard making for a nice wildcard to have, in addition to such steady defensive defensemen as Kris Russell and (believe it or not) Ceci, while a guy like Tyson Barrie can produce upwards of 50 points from the blue line.

Prediction:
Second in the Pacific Division.

For the past three years, most of the focus in Edmonton has been centered around McDavid and Draisaitl, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins figuring as an afterthought at best and perhaps a serious question mark regarding his production versus his salary and re-signing value, a situation GM Ken Holland dealt with well last summer by signing him to a long extention that diminished his cap hit by a little bit, saving the team nearly a million per season. I believe last year's points totals (13 goals, 19 assists and 35 points in 52 games, for a points-per-game average of 0.67 as a 27-year-old) to be an outlier in terms of his prime (0.77 PPG at 24, 0.84 at 25, 0.94 at 26), and that hovering between the third line when playing on the road and manning the second unit with Hyman and Kailer Yamamoto at home will enable him to return to at least 0.75 points per game, possibly 0.8 if he gets a few looks with either of the two superstars here and there.

As a former first-overall pick (2011), he cannot be considered on even footing with McDavid as a generational player, but he can be seen as a success, particularly in light of other recent Oiler first-overall players like Nail Yakupov. In his draft year, he currently ranks sixth in point production behind Nikita Kucherov (58th overall), Gabriel Landeskog (2nd), Mark Scheifele (7th), Jonathan Huberdeau (3rd) and Johnny Gaudreau (104th), and ahead of the likes of Sean Couturier (8th), Mika Zibanejad (6th), Ondrej Palat (208th), J.T. Miller (15th), Dougie Hamilton (9th), and Vincent Trocheck (64th). I believe he will catch up to Gaudreau, but Couturier and Zibanejad will give him a run for his money in terms of who will round out that draft class' top-five when their careers are over.

Here he is wearing Edmonton's orange (home) uniform on card #GJ-RN from Upper Deck's 2020-21 Series 1 collection and UD Game Jersey sub-set:

It features a white swatch that is certified as having been used in an NHL game. I was pretty stoked to land it, as it's my first RNH "hit" ever.

Sabres Preview: Travis Turnbull Autograph Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: at this point, despite training camp being set to start in less than two weeks, several players haven't found a team yet, most RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams yet, and a few teams are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Sam Reinhart (C), Linus Ullmark (G), Rasmus Ristolainen (D), Jake McCabe (D), Will Borgen (D), Matt Irwin (D), Tobias Reider (RW), Riley Sheahan (C), Taylor Hall (F, at last year's deadline)

Key Arrivals: Aaron Dell (G), Craig Anderson (G), Devon Levi (G), Robert Hagg (D), Mark Pysyk (D), John Hayden (C), Vinnie Hinostroza (RW), Will Butcher (D)

Top prospects: Owen Power (D), Jack Quinn (RW), Arttu Ruotsalainen (C), John-Jason Peterka (LW), Isak Rosen (F), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G)

The Buffalo Sabres are a complete trainwreck, and have been for the better part of the last two decades. They have not made the playoffs since the 2010-11 season and haven't won a round since 2005-06. Even before then, they were acting as if they were in the middle of a pandemic, making drastic cuts to their drafting budget, letting go three-quarters of their staff and having the ones that remain work mostly from video footage instead of actually traveling to see the young players perform live. They failed to extend captain (Daniel Brière) after captain (Chris Drury) after captain (Jason Pominville) after captain (Thomas Vanek), they wasted elite goaltending (Dominik Hasek, Ryan Miller), and even getting rid of a locker room cancer with a habit of drunkenly crashing his cars into coffee shops such as Ryan O'Reilly did nothing for them but allowed ROR to win a Stanley Cup with the St. Louis Blues.

They are on their fourth GM (Kevyn Adams, following in the footsteps of Jason Botterill, Tim Murray and Darcy Regier), who themselves have overseen head coaches Lindy Ruff, Ron Rolston, Ted Nolan, Dan Bylsma, Phil Housley, Ralph Krueger, and now Don Granato; job security or stability do not have a home here.

What makes their odds look good:
Only a die-hard fan or gambler in need of a long-shot win would put their money on Buffalo. They'll perhaps be better than last year in team play, but the talent level just isn't there apart from a few pieces - and Granato as a coach is not Barry Trotz, so this isn't the next New York Islanders, either.

Question marks: When does disgruntled captain Jack Eichel get traded, and what will the return be? Is Aaron Dell really going to be their starting goalie, or will Devan Dubnyk agree to sign with the one team left that still has an opening for top spot in net?

Outlook:
There are building blocks here: Casey Mittelstadt is looking like a centre who can play on one of the top two lines, Victor Olofsson can score on the powerplay and would ideally be slotted in the middle-six on a good team but will see top-line ice time here, and Dylan Cozens shows promise up front as well, with Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka possibly coming in in a few years, but re-signing Jeff Skinner was always going to be dead money, and Anders Bjork, Tage Thompson and Cody Eakin only seem to be placeholders at this point, either to play out their contracts while the team tanks or (particularly in Eakin's case) until a trade deadline deal to a contender makes enough sense. There are more defensive sure bets per capita, with Rasmus Dahlin seeming like he's regained form under Granato, Owen Power graduating from College eventually and Robert Hagg as a rescue project from the Philadelphia Flyers. I can't say I'm as optimistic about former New Jersey Devils prospect Will Butcher, though. But you don't lose your two best centres, you legitimate #1 goalie and your two most consistent defensemen without replacing any of them and purport to leave the bottom of the standings.

Prediction:
8th in the Atlantic Division.

Which brings me to Travis Turnbull, whose father Perry was a useful NHL journeyman who finished his career playing in Italy and Germany. Undrafted, the Sabres signed Travis as a free agent following a four-year career with the Michigan Wolverines in the NCAA; after four seasons in the Sabres' system, consistently improving from one season to the next, he was allowed to suit up in three games with the parent club in 2012-13, scoring a goal. Unfortunately, the 2012-13 lockout happened, and he set his sights for Germany, putting up 46 points and 88 penalty minutes for Düsseldorfer EG, so he may have preferred being a star player overseas than a grinder in North America. His point production regressed starting in 2016-17, but what he brought to the game was still appreciated nonetheless. He was captain of the Schwenninger Wild Wings last season (11 points in 32 games), and I suspect he will be this year as well. This is leadership the Sabres could have brought back at just about any moment in the last decade, but instead chose ROR to lead the room, then handed the reigns to his heir apparent without ever earning it or showing him what he should keep from O'Reilly's teachings and what to throw away. Since Ruff's firing, the Sabres have seemigly always hired the wrong leader at every crucial position, strating with management down to the coaching staff all the way down to the players on the ice. They will need to admit it to their fans before embarking on another rebuilding phase.

Here is Turnbull wearing the team's retro white (away) uniform, on card #SI-TR from Panini's 2013-14 Select collection and Select Signatures sub-set:

It features a blue-sharpied on-sticker autograph.

Caps Preview: Alex Ovechkin Swatch Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Brenden Dillon (D), Craig Anderson (G), Michael Raffl (LW), Zdeno Chara (D)

Key Arrivals: Matt Irwin (D), xxx (LW), xxx (C/LW), xxx (C), xxx (LW), xxx (D), xxx (D), xxx (G)

Top prospects: Connor McMichael (C), Hendrix Lapierre (C), Martin Fehervary (D), Alexander Alexeyev (D), Vincent Iorio (D), Damien Riat (LW), Aliaksei Protas (C), Brent Johnson (D), Brett Leason (RW), Kody Clark (RW), Lucas Johansen (D)

Sure, the Washington Capitals' stars are all in their 30s, they have few top-tier prospects that have Toronto-based pundits salivating and have exited the playoffs early every year since their 2018 Stanley Cup win, but this nucleus remains rock-solid with the likes of Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov. The goaltending position is also in good hands with Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek.

What makes their odds look good:
They can outscore the opposition like few teams can and have better goaltending than the Toronto Maple Leafs. If someone in the Atlantic can eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team from the Metropolitan Division could make it to the Cup Final.

Question marks: A lot of their firepower is tied into a handful of players, who account for a lot of the team's cap space. There are depth issues, and any injury troubles would mean a huge drop in the standings for the Caps.

Outlook:
This team hired Peter Laviolette as head coach because it is still hungry for a Cup. Regular-season seeding doesn't have to matter much, the postseason is how this team will be judged, now and forever.

Prediction:
Third in the Metropolitan Division.

Fresh off a five-year deal that will realistically lead him to breaking Wayne Gretzky's career goals record, Ovechkin is a man on (another) mission. And while the chase for Gretzky's goals record is huge in itself, Ovie is also chasing Sidney Crosby's two undeserved Conn Smythes, a gimme from a handful of Toronto-based journalists who didn't want to give Phil Kessel his due. Should Ovechkin get a second one, it might even force the Hall Of Fame to waive its three-year waiting period to get him in.

Here he is wearing the team's dreadful red (home) Reebok Edge uniform from a few years back, on the swatch version of card #73 from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite collection:

It features a white game-worn jersey swatch. I got this one on Ebay for just over five bucks; its usual book value is closer to $40-50.

Hurricanes Preview: Rod Brind'Amour Autographed Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start at the end of the month, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Dougie Hamilton (D), Alex Nedeljkovic (G), James Reimer (G), Petr Mrazek (C), Warren Foegele (W), Cédric Paquette (F), Brock McGinn (LW), Morgan Geekie (C), Jake Bean (D), Jani Hakanpaa (D)

Key Arrivals: Tony DeAngelo (D), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C), Ian Cole (D), Frederik Andersen (G), Derek Stepan (C), Ethan Bear (D), Antti Raanta (G), Josh Leivo (LW), Brendan Smith (D), Jalen Chatfield (D)

Top prospects: Seth Jarvis (RW), Dominik Bok (W), Ryan Suzuki (C), Anttoni Honka (D), Noel Gunler (RW), Scott Morrow (D), Vasiliy Ponomarev (C), Jack Drury (C), Pyotr Kochetkov (G), Aleksi Heimosalmi (D), Joey Keane (D)

For a team with a low budget that moved on from captain Eric Staal only to hand the title to his little brother Jordan, that couldn't afford to give its best goalie (Nedeljkovic) $3M per season and who let its star defenseman (Hamilton) leave as a free agent to sign to a $9M cap hit with the New Jersey Devils, the Carolina Hurricanes sure turned heads when they gave Kotkaniemi an offer sheet that the Montréal Canadiens were smart not to match, but the 21-year-old forward is a nice project for the coaching staff to develop while the rest of the well-constructed team (a legitimate top line of Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov, a second line that can put up points with Vincent Trocheck and Martin Necas, and the aforementioned Staal II manning the third line, with Nino Niederreiter and Jesper Fast able to spend time on one of the top two lines as well, and a defense that still includes Jaccob Slavin, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Jake Gardiner and new acquisitions DeAngelo, Stanley Cup winner Cole and Smith. There is a wealth of talent on that team.

What makes their odds look good:
The roster is as stacked as a team not based in Tampa Bay or Vegas can be.

Question marks: If Andersen's an upgrade over Mrazek, can he get back to his 2017 form and adequately replace Nedeljkovic instead? Will DeAngelo become a DeIstraction? Will Kotkaniemi sign a more reasonable extension in January, or has he messed up the Canes' salary structure forever?

Outlook:
This team is built to withstand roster turnovers whenever a player's production has him reach a paygrade deemed too rich for owner Tom Dundon... except for maybe Aho - a 24-year-old centre who can do it all and produce at a point per game pace - and Slavin, who remains the most underrated defenseman in the game. If they had decent goaltending, they would be (and would have been) serious contenders for years.

Prediction:
First in the Metropolitan Division.

Head coach Rod Brind'Amour seems to be the perfect person to lead this troupe and instill team spirit, which is one benefit of having a former captain behind the bench. Not only can he coach this team to success despite never having a true #1 goalie between the pipes, but he's walked the walk as well, waiting until each of his assistants and trainers got extended before signing his own three-year deal. Oh, and he won the Jack Adams Trophy as coach of the year the same day.

Although the award was well-deserved, I think most people know Brind'Amour isn't the best coach in the league, but he's the ideal bench boss for this team, just like he was a great fit as a player, and a perfect member of the Philadelphia Flyers, with whom he played 633 regular-season games and posted 235 goals and 366 assists for 601 points to go with 563 penalty minutes in the heart of the Dead Puck Era, and another 51 points (24 goals and 27 assists) and 31 penalty minutes in 56 post-season games.

On a team where the top line of Eric Lindros, John LeClair and Mikael Renberg was viewed as dominant (and the best line in the NHL), it was Brind'Amour's 13 goals that led the league in the 1997 playoffs, and his two-goal game on March 25th that eliminated the New York Rangers and sent the Flyers to the Cup Final for the first time in a decade. Here he is wearing the team's white (then-home) uniform, on card #121 from Upper Deck's 1997-98 Series 1 collection:

He signed it in black sharpie 10-15 years ago, when he was still playing for the Canes.

Blue Jackets Preview: Jakub Voracek Jersey Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Seth Jones (D), Cam Atkinson (RW), Kole Sherwood (RW), Michael Del Zotto (D)

Key Arrivals: Jakub Voracek (RW), Adam Boqvist (D), Jake Bean (D), Sean Kuraly (C), Zac Rinaldo (C)

Top prospects: Kent Johnson (C), Cole Sillinger (C), Corson Ceulemans (D), Kirill Marchenko (RW), Yegor Chinakhov (RW), Andrew Peeke (D), Daniil Tarasov (G), Dmitri Voronkov (LW), Trey Fix-Wolansky (RW), Stanislav Svozil (D), Liam Foudy (C), xxx (LW), xxx (LW)

This is a transition period for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have only a handful of players left from the failed "all-in" season three years ago. Even head coach John Tortorella left, replaced by assistant Brad Larsen. There will be growing pains while a new system is set up, in the same way an expansion team like the Seattle Kraken might face, except exclusively with home-grown young players and draft picks, not hand-picked from the entire league. The four new players coming in look solid to me (even Rinaldo, who will help instill some team spirit).

What makes their odds look good:
The Blue Jackets' top-three on defense consisting of Zach Werenski, Boqvist and Bean will be solid eventually, but the latter two must gain experience first, and it will be trial by fire at least for this season. Goalie Elvis Merzlikins is a very good goalie who may fall into a Vezina Trophy at some point (in the era of Connor Hellebuyck, Jacob Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Andrei Vasilevskiy, which wil lbe extremely difficult), but he would need his team to make the playoffs for that to happen.

Question marks: Will Patrik Laine regain his offensive touch, or will he bide his time until he can leave himself?

Outlook:
The trade deadline brought in a huge leadership void when captain Nick Foligno and defenseman David Savard were traded for high draft picks, which was compounded by Jones' and Atkinson's summer departures. This will take time to rebuild.

Prediction:
8th in the Metropolitan Division.

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the one-for-one trade involving Atkinson (headed to the Philadelphia Flyers) and Voracek - on both sides. Atkinson is still a 30-goal man, a feisty little speedster, and Voracek produces at a 0.75-point-per-game clip at this stage in his career - a very good production rate for a 32-year-old player - but he's lost a bit of foot speed and is an assists collector first and foremost, and I fail to see who he will set up unless he is directly tasked with reviving Laine's game.

He knows what to expect in Columbus, however, having already been a part of a rebuild there to start his career off as the team's 7th-overall pick in 2007. This is what he looked like wearing deep blue, as seen on card #GJ-JV from Upper Deck's 2010-11 Series 1 collection and UD Game Jersey sub-set:

It features a white game-worn jersey swatch.

Jets Preview: Troy Murray: Two Autographed Cards

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Mason Appleton (C), Mathieu Perreault (C/LW), Tucker Poolman (D), Laurent Brossoit (G), Derek Forbort (D), Nate Thompson (C), Trevor Lewis (C)

Key Arrivals: Nate Schmidt (D), Brendan Dillon (D), Riley Nash (C)

Top prospects: Cole Perfetti (C), Ville Heinola (D), Dylan Samberg (D), David Gustafsson (C), Kristian Vesalainen (LW), Chaz Lucius (C), Mikhail Bergin (G), Dmitri Kuzmin (D), Simon Lundmark (D)

Now that they've added to their blue line via the low-key Norris-level Schmidt and dependable Dillon, the Winnipeg Jets are once again a force to be reckoned with, with the best goalie in the world in Connor Hellebuyck, tremendous leadership in Blake Wheeler, star power in Mark Scheifele, the NHL's most underrated forward in Kyle Connor, and another potential first-line centre in Pierre-Luc Dubois, who underperformed last season after coming in a couple of weeks late due to Canadian Covid-19 protocols and never really getting enough time to catch up, but who has proven in the past that he can carry the load. And Schmidt's arrival will send Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey in ideal slots (they were fine operating as the top-two defensemen but will be elite #2s and #3s).

What makes their odds look good:
A team with Hellebuyck between the pipes makes the playoffs. A team with him and Schmidt, Pionk and Morrissey might win a round. Add two potent offensive lines and a full cast on D (including Dylan DeMelo) and you may get a Conference Final.

Question marks: Eric Comrie is now in his 8th season trying to make it as the Jets' backup goalie. Will it work this time? He's a bit too good for the AHL and no longer has anything to prove there, he just needs to step up and have a save percentage above .905 to keep his head above water. This team is strong but not especially deep. A couple of key injuries could derail a lot of good things - and one to Hellebuyck would be deadly.

Outlook:
Don't sleep on the Jets. In a relatively weak Central Division where only the Colorado Avalanche are a powerhouse, there is a path to the third round that's wide open, and Winnipeg's talent level ranks on par with that of the St. Louis Blues, and above the Minnesota Wild, Chicago Blackhawks and Dallas Stars.

Prediction:
Second in the Central Division.

Troy Murray was only a member of the Jets for a year and a half before the team - which had acquired him from the Chicago Blackhawks prior to the 1991-92 season - sent him back to the Hawks in February of 1993. The Jets ended up with the rights to Warren Rychel (who never played in Winnipeg) and Steven Bancroft while the Hawks landed Bryan Marchment (one of the meanest and dirtiest players of all time) and Chris Norton. Murray was by far the best player in any transaction, captaining the Jets for the duration of his stay in Canada and winning the Selke trophy in 1985-86 as well as the Stanley Cup in 1996 with the Colorado Avalanche alongside Rychel.

He was also captain of the Team Canada squad that took home the gold medal at the 1982 World Juniors.

After two stints with Chicago spanning 12 seasons and one year playing for the IHL's Chicago Wolves (posting 21 goals, 29 assists and 50 points as well as 63 penalty minutes in 81 games), Murray joined the Hawks' broadcast team upon retiring as a player, and it was announced just last week that he had been diagnosed with cancer. I wish him the best of luck in his fight for his life.

Here he is wearing the Jets' white (then-home) uniform, on card #215 from Pro Set's 1992-93 Series 1 collection:

And here he is in action pivoting in front of New York Islanders goalie (and fellow current broadcaster) Glenn Healy, with Jeff Norton in possession of the puck:

Both were signed in blue sharpie while he was in town with the Hawks, around 2015-2017.

NHL 2021-21 Stanley Cup Final Predictions

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

(full disclosure: while I started writing this piece a couple of days ahead of Game 1, I only finished it once the game was over; the only difference is that Nikita Kucherov does not appear injured as advertized, looking like Connor McDavid playing with and against teenagers out there instead of like Mike McPhee)

I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that each Final Four team had a legitimate chance at winning the Stanley Cup, and with the elimination of the New York Islanders and Vegas Golden Knights, the best and worst head coaches of the postseason have been removed from the equation, meaning the end result will fall on strategy, health and the players themselves.

The Montréal Canadiens end up with their ideal matchup, as they are built to eliminate the opposition's scoring threats, but they also fall onto their biggest thorn on their side outside of the Ottawa Senators, the Tampa Bay Lightning. Of course, the Bolts aren't merely "good", the best team of the Salary Cap era (yes, better than the 2012-2014 Los Angeles Kings who were essentially this year's Habs, better than the back-to-back winning Pittsburgh Penguins whose defense was suspect, and even the revamped Chicago Blackhawks who had a handful of potential Hall Of Famers but lacked depth). And they don't have to rely on theri talent either, they can grind it out with the toughest of them, especially with the addition of David Savard on the back end at the trade deadline.

Here are the comparisons and match-ups:

Vegas Tampa Bay Lightning (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (2):
Offense: Lightning
Defense: tie
Goaltending: Lightning
Coaching: Lightning

First Line:
As we've seen with Vegas, Toronto and Winnipeg, it doesn't really matter that the opposition has the better players on paper, since the game is played on a sheet of ice and the Habs' top unit comprised of Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and a rotating cast of left wingers can and will shut them all down, just like they did with McDavid in the regular season. Except that without Tomas Tatar, this line no longer scores, so while they do outshoot, outchance and outpossess the other side, they do not produce, what with Artturi Lehkonen and/or Jake Evans not having found a way to translate their skill-set into goal production yet. And the Bolts have Kucherov, by far the best player in the series. Sure, there is also Brayden Point
, particularly if you believe he is the heir to clutch playoff performers like Claude Lemieux and Brad Richards; whether that is the case or not, he just scored in nine consecutive games, he's due for a cold streak, I do not see him finishing with 20 markers. Point can get the Danault treatment like Auston Matthews, Nikolai Ehlers and Mark Stone before him.

The second lines are where it gets tricky, because the Bolts have Steven Stamkos on that right wing, who can also play centre, so when they're merely playing well, they are nearly at the level of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Tyler Toffoli when they are nearing their (current) high upside. I believe the Habs can hold their own, but one game could slip them by due to this match-up, despite the presence of Anthony Cirelli has inserted himself in the Selke conversaion that inexplcably always leaves Danault on the outs, with the same ability to counter and counter-attack.

The third lines also technically match on paper, and maybe down the line the edge switches, but for now, Josh Anderson's skill-set as a quick, tough power forward is lacking in goal-scoring finish, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi will have a hard time staying on his feet against the hard-skating and hard-hitting Lightning players, while Paul Byron's worth is clearer on the penalty kill than in a regular shift. Over six or even games, they will get outscored by Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, but the important part is that I believe they can keep it even three times and get the best of them once.

The fourth line is clearly at Montréal's advantage, with Corey Perry and Eric Staal bringing toughness, Championship experience and a drive they hadn't displayed in years, well complemented by Joel Armia's ability to retrieve and protec the puck. Patrick Maroon, Russ Colton and the ghost of Tyler Johnson's salvation can only come in being pests and antogonizing the Canadiens' forwards and taking them to the penalty box. Which leads me to...

Special teams:
The deadliest power play versus the best penalty kill of the entire playoffs. The Canadiens are riding a 13-game kill streak, which is bound to get broken, and their ability to bounce back instead of reverting to a mean right away will be key in keeping the momentum up in games. Danault, Armia, Byron, Lehtonen, Gallagher and perhaps even Evans ar every good at blocking passing lanes, getting in front of shots, killing time and gaining possession while down a man, and facing what is essentially the top five players of a perfect team will be their toughest assigment yet, but I expect Danault to continue fooling his detractors and Byron to score another breakaway shorthanded goal.

Defense: I have these as being equal despite the presence of Norris and Conn Smythe winner Victor Hedman on Tampa's back end because Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson are so good at keeping shots coming from dead corners or the blue line that what the equivalent of "zero chances given" can only be, well, zero chances. Of course, Weber and Petry's ability to use their Norris-level shots is obviously impaired by injuries to their hands, but Hedman's been looking human too in these playoffs, so much so that Ryan McDonagh actually looks like their top guy right now. And while Mikhail Sergachev is well on his way to a role in the Norris conversation, he can get riled up rather easily and has a tendency to take bad penalties. Watch out for trade deadline acquisition David Savard's deadly hits, he could injure somebody.

Goaltending:
Both former Vezina Trophy winners, Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy are by no means perfect. Vasi is probably the best in the league to stop shots at ice level and up to a foot and a half high, but if one has time to lift the puck, particularly after a cross-crease pass, he's vulnerable up top. He has fewer gaping holes than Price (three vs six), but they're larger. Here's a look at their stances and weaknesses, starting with Vasilevskiy, who always has his pads perfectly flat on the ice surface:

He is also excellent at (and large enough to) stick both pads together to cover the five-hole without using his stick to do so, while still covering the rest of the net at ice level:

He even moves from one end of the net top the other in near-perfect butterfly so that no shot that isn't quicker than he is can ever enter the net:

Because he's so good at it - and because the Lightning's defense rarely leaves opposing forwards enough time to lift the puck - it's becoem his go-to move, so much so that his gloves have more or less become more of balancing tools that hope to stop pucks mid-motion than space-takers and puck-tracking devices:

That, and the fact that he uses the "swat-down" position for his catching glove means he's faster to bring his glove down than bring it upwards and leaves the top of the net vulnerable:

Price also uses the "swat-down" position, but he adds difficulty (to his own life...) by only putting the butt of his stick on the ice, instead of the entire blade, creating five-hole surprises:

Sometimes he also looks like he's slightly off-balance, leaning forward to anticipate moving, which can also lead to surprises (notably giving up the five hole, inability to stop the pucks in the high corners and susceptibility to a side-to-side pass):

His high blocker side has been an issue since his rookie season, and the same can be said for the high glove side. Most of his glove saves have added flair that look spectacular, but replays show the puck just enters a basket that was already there. Another issue is the five-hole, because he rarely is able to stick both pads together, and almost never covers the area with his stick (or blocker):

Prediction: Tampa in 7.
Conn Smythe: Nikita Kucherov or Carey Price

Here are my MVPs for each team so far:
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov
Canadiens: Phillip Danault

NHL 2021-21 Round 3 Predictions

(team links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

Welcome to the 2020-21 Stanley Cup semi-finals! In an odd turn of event, each one of the Final Four teams has a clear path to the Cup:

Tampa Bay Lightning: the best team of the Salary Cap era, they can beat anyone on any day, but still don't have this one in the bag.

New York Islanders: with the best coach in the world (Barry Trotz) and a magician in charge of the defense and goaltending (Mitch Korn), they are a Giant Killer. Where they have a little less of a shot than the Habs is they are much less physical, and they will not be able to wear down both the Bolts and Knights back-to-back with just their speed.

Vegas Golden Knights: contenders since their inception, this is the best defensive team they have iced yet, though it has less offensive firepower than in its second and third seasons with the departure of Paul Stastny. Their weak point is the fact that they are outcoached by nearly all remaining teams, but they have enough talent to overcome that.

Montréal Canadiens: they can shut down offensive supwerpowers, which means going through the Golden Knights and Lightning is possible, but it wouldn't be as "easy" (nothing will be easy at this point...) to get through the Isles.

Let's get to the match-ups!

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Montréal Canadiens (4):
Offense: Golden Knights
Defense: tie, but slight advantage to the Habs
Goaltending: Golden Knights
Coaching: Habs

First Line:
On paper, both teams have one of the best shut-down/outscoring first lines in the league, with a true Selke nominee on one side (Mark Stone) and the guy who should have won it this year but isn't even nominated because of writers' bias towards the Boston Bruins' Patrice Bergeron (Phillipe Danault). The fact that Tomas Tatar was not producing while nursing an injury and is no longer even dressing for games shouldn't affect our analysis since both Jake Evans (currently nursing a concussion) and Artturi Lehkonen have been able to slide in at the opposite of Brendan Gallagher (who may score a little less than his counterpart Max Pacioretty but more than makes up for the difference on grit , leadership and physical play) and keep carrying the play, which is a testament to just how effective Danault really is. We're talking about the only forward in Canada sho shut down Connor McDavid in the regular season and who kept Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner at bay during the first round, then by his mere presence on the ice domesticated a Winnipeg Jets team that was without its star centre Mark Schiefele (suspended for his idiotic and predatory hit on Evans) and didn't even want to put up any kind of fight. Knights centre Chandler Stephenson has yet to reach his linemates' stature (though now is as good a time as ever). Clear advantage Montréal here.

Second Line:
Depth seems to dip in Vegas' favour, especially since their "second line" of Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith was its #1 unit when they reached the Stanley Cup Final three seasons ago; Marchessault has 6 goals on his own already, and Karlsson leads the team with 11 points in 13 games so far. The Habs counter with their future #1 centre and former Vegas first-round pick in Nick Suzuki, a clutch player who can score himself or feed a sniper on each wing in Tyler Toffoli and the undersized Cole Caufield. This match-up is even, with Smith's experience compensating for his lack of production this postseason.

Forward depth:
The Canadiens roll equivalent, balanced lines with speed, grit and some form of potential scoring, with such players as Joel Armia (4 goals), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4) and Corey Perry (3) have scored important goals, with seven different forwards scoring game-winners - Toffoli (2), Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Perry, Lehkonen, Gallagher, and Paul Byron. Any line can play heroes, and having a former Cup-winning captain in Eric Staal center the fourth line just adds an intangible that plays strongly in their favour. But the Golden Knights have a checking line taht is extremely dificult to play against, as William Carrier, Nicolas Roy and Keegan Kolesar are relentless forecheckers, and Montréal has yet to face a player like Ryan Reaves. He will toe a very uncomfortable line and bruise the living hell out of everyone he meets alongside the boards; he may be the difference-maker in this series.

Defense:
There is no doubt the Golden Knights hold the talent advantage here, with two Norris-level performers playing on the same side in Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, and that holds even more true if the Canadiens' top option on defense - Jeff Petry - is unable to suit up because of his broken finger(s). Alec Martinez and Zach Whitecloud complete a very potable top-four and Nick Holden, Brayden McNabb et Nicholas Hague are no slouches in completing the unit either. Their stickwork in pushing pucks away from the carrier is truly a sight to behold (and leave opposing forwards befuddled at first, then angry), but at least they let the opposing players into the zone mostly unscathed. Petry, Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot and Joel Edmundson operate in a very different manner: they just clobber the body until it breaks and block shots as if they believed their own goalie was unable to. 11 of Vegas' forwards will be hesitant to go into the zone as the series progresses, but Reaves wil lbe dishig out their own medecine to the Habs' D-corps, which will be interesting. He may also grow impatient and get suspended for a dangerous play, which would hurt his team immensely.

Goaltending:
Future all Of Famer Marc-André Fleury has the edge here, no doubt. Although he and Carey Price have similar GAAs (1.91 vs 1.97), Fleury faced Nathan MacKinnon and the potent Colorado Avalanche offense, the team that won the Presidents' Trophy, whereas Price essentially faced an average AHL team once Scheifele was done with the series and Paul Stastny came back to play injured. Fleury also has the edge in that he's been on fire all year long, earnig a Vezina Trophy nod, whereas Price was outplayed by Jake Allen every step of the way, cost three coaches their jobs this year and hasn't exactly stolen a game this far.

This one goes the full seven games. The Canadiens might come up on top if Petry only misses one game; if not, Fleury and Reaves are why the G-Knights make it through.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs New York Islanders (3):

Tampa Bay:
Playing with bank money on account of Nikita Kucherov missing the entire season and other monies being on LTIR at the trade deadline, the Bolts are currently icing a team that is $17M above the cap, meaning even if they didn't have Tyler Johnson (whose $5M contract has been on waivers numerous times), they'd still be $12M over; that's two second-line players, give or take. That means they already had one of the best defensive corps in the league (including a Norris and Conn Smythe winner), and a first line that includes a Hart and Art Ross winner on one side and a Maurice Richard winner on the other, their second and third lines are both top-tier, and their fourth is probably a third. Plus, they have the experience of winning last season, and new face David Savard on D who not only has not won the Cup but was part of the team that surprised Tampa by sweeping them in the first roudn two years ago. He know how to beat them and will not let it happen. Oh, and they have a Vezina winner in net. While I do not agree that Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best goalie in the NHL (that would be Connor Hellebuyck, followed by Fleury and John Gibson), he is the best at stopping shots that are in the bottom foot and a half of the net, as his athleticism and speed is akin to prime Jonathan Quick in that regard, with better anticipation. If you can't aim for the top six to eight inches of net, you're uselessly raising his save percentage and getting him unnecessary praise.

Islanders:
The Isles have exactly one elite player: Mathew Barzal. He just figured out how to get free in the playoffs two games ago, so he may actually get to turn the backburners on on his offensive production, but so far, the depth pieces have gotten the job done, most notably proven palyoff performer Jean-Gabriel Pageau and breakout star Anthony Beauvillier. They are so clutch it feels like they're on the ice only when it matters most.

Grit:
If you haven't paid attention to the Central and Metro and just landed in the third round of the playoffs, you'd be inclined to think the defensive Islanders are probably playing as heavy a game as the Canadiens are, but it's actually the Lightning who are the most penalized team of the postseason - just like they'd been all year long. And New York had better hope it remains that way, because Tampa's powerplay is scoring at a 41% clip, so they can make you pay very quickly... when they're not busy making you pay a toll physically. They can play any type of game: speed, skill, toughness. Where they haven't been so tested is their patience. They're so good, they've yet to be stalled for long periods of time, so if Semyon Varlamov can shut the door long enough to get on their nerves, no one knows what will happen, which may be good news for the team whose last playoff success came during their 1980s dynasty.

Lightning in six.

Here are the MVPs for each team so far:
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov
Golden Knights: Marc-André Fleury
Islanders: Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anthony Beauvillier
Canadiens: Phillip Danault