Tuesday, September 4, 2018

NHL Preview 2018-19: St. Louis Blues

GM: Doug Armstrong (since 2010). 6/10
Coach: Mike Yeo (since 2017). 5/10

2017-18 record: 44-32-6, 94 points, 18th overall.

Departures: Carter Hutton (G), Kyle Brodziak (C), Patrik Berglund (C), Vladimir Sobotka (LW), Tage Thompson (C).

Arrivals: David Perron (RW), Tyler Bozak (C), Patrick Maroon (LW), Brian Flynn (C), Chad Johnson (G), Ryan O'Reilly (C), Jordan Nolan (C).

Top forwards: Vladimir Tarasenko (75-80 points), Jaden Schwartz (55-70 points), Brayden Schenn (55-70 points), Alexander Steen (40-45 points), O'Reilly (45-65 points, probably closer to 60 since it's first year with the team), Maroon (20-30 points), Robby Fabbri (30-40 points, depending how many games he misses to injury), Bozak (20-40 points), Ivan Barbashev (20-30 points).

Must-improve forward: GM Armstrong got rid of the usual suspects (Berglund, Sobotka, even Paul Stastny at the trade deadline), which leaves the ghost of Alex Steen. He's being paid like a 60-point player but has not reached that level of production since 2014-15. He's 34, so chances are he'll never reach those numbers again.

Top defensemen: Alex Pietrangelo (45-50 points), Colton Parayko (35-40 points), Joel Edmundson (15-25 points), Vince Dunn (10-20 points), Jay Bouwmeester (10 points).

Goalies: Jake Allen (80/100), Johnson (65/100).

Top rookies: Jordan Kyrou (20 years old, C), Robert Thomas (19, C, 2017 first-rounder), Samuel Blais (22, LW), Jake Walman (22, D), Klim Kostin (19, C, 6'3", 212 pounds), Ville Husso (23, G).

Analysis:
Mike Yeo is not an NHL-caliber coach.

The Blues' players have a history of choking in high-pressure situations; the core used to be made up of Team USA chokers, now they're mostly just very experienced playoff under-performers.

Jake Allen needs an elite goaltending coach, someone whose goalies wins Vezinas, or else he's done as a starter. Johnson's not any better. In fact, he's among the lower tier of NHL backups.

Bouwmeester has looked like an already-retired defenseman at times last year, and it's not going to get any better for him this year.

The Blues have plenty of good pieces to build around in Tarasenko, Schwartz, the good Schenn, and Pietrangelo, but a bunch of uncoachable guys who just managed to get rid of Ken Hitchcock just got coach-killer and selfish star two-way center O'Reilly added to the roster. Look at his time in Colorado, look at his time in Buffalo: he's at his best on mediocre teams because he can't stand not being the best player around, and he gets jealous when he's not the de facto leader, then just stops trying altogether.

This could turn out to be a spectacular shit-show. Chances are Yeo and Armstrong won't be in town at this time next year.

Prediction: 5th in the Central Division.

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