Friday, May 24, 2019

NHL Playoffs Predictions 2018-19: The Stanley Cup Final

It's all come down to this...

Two teams that have consistently finished among the top-10 in the regular season for most of the past decade in wins, overall points, goals against, even hits...

Two teams that usually boast at least a half-dozen Olympians on their rosters (though the boys in blue are usually of the Team USA choking kind while Boston employs Canadians, Finns and over-achieving Slovaks)...

So... here we are.

Boston Bruins vs St. Louis Blues

THIS SEASON
Each time has won a game against the other in the regular season.

The Bruins were safely installed in second place in the Atlantic Division pretty much all year and finished with a 47-30-5 record, while the Blues, last overall in January, fought tooth and nail just to make the playoffs, replacing both their head coach and starting goalie in the process to finish third in the Central Division with a... 45-28-9 record. Just two wins fewer.

OFFENSE
On offense, the Bs can now roll four lines without fear of looking outmatched at any point, but the bulk of the scoring comes from the first unit, comprised of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak. For those keeping tabs, that's the best two-way center in the world for the past decade flanked by two 40-goal players. Luckily, one of them has a temper and can be sent to the penalty box.

The Blues can counter that with Brayden Schenn flanked by Vladimir Tarasenko (a 40-goal man once thought to be the heir to Alex Ovechkin, before we realized Ovie would just never stop scoring) and Jaden Schwartz, who is one goal away from tying Brett Hull for the team's single-season playoff record. Yeah, just throwing those all-time snipers' names out there.

The second and third lines are also tightly matched, slightly favouring Boston:

Jake DeBrusk / David Krejci / David Backes
Marcus Johansson / Charlie Coyle / Danton Heinen
                vs
Samuel Blais / Ryan O'Reilly / David Perron
Patrick Maroon / Tyler Bozak / Robert Thomas

Each team has a rejuvenated hometown boy (Coyle and Maroon), some sandpaper (Backes, Johansson, Heinen, Maroon, Blais), two-way acumen (Krejci and ROR) youth (DeBrusk and Blais), and players who are no longer the top guys they once were (Backes and Bozak).

St. Louis has better fourth-line depth, though, with players like Ivan Barbashev, Alex Steen and Oskar Sundqvist ready to take on bigger roles if needed, while the Bruins are content keeping Joakin Nordstrom, Sean Kuraly and Chris Wagner at just over 10 minutes apiece.

DEFENSE
Zdeno Chara / Charlie McAvoy
Torey Krug / Brandon Carlo
Matt Grzelcyk / Connor Clifton
     vs
Joel Edmundson / Alex Pietrangelo
Jay Bouwmeester / Colton Parayko
Vince Dunn / Carl Gunnarson

At first glance, this also looks like an even matchup with a slight advantage for Beantown. However, while Pietrangelo has played the most minutes in these playoffs (by far_, he's also the second-most exposed defenseman this season after Erik Karlsson. Something's just terribly off in the way he misses passes, turns the puck over, doesn,t backcheck quickly enough and constantly fails to clear the zone safely in the dying minutes of a period, instead provoking icings that cost his teams goals and games. The Blues should be playing Parayko (perhaps the best defender still standing) a lot more and Pietrangelo a lot less.

Chara's no longer a true factor for the Bs, meaning even if he sits a few games out with an injury, whoever takes his palce will be able to provide the same defense he can. But no one has his blast from the blue line. McAvoy's the real star of this blue line (perhaps very close to Parayko as the best still playing), but Krug - while he makes a lot of defensive mistakes - can also create a lot of offense.

Also, never underestimate "it" factors, like the fact that the Blues are handicapped with two former Toronto Maple Leafs players (Bozak and Gunnarson), who are known to avoid winning a Stanley Cup at all costs.

COACHING
Hey, I'll admit Craig Berube has done a hell of a job with his Blues, matching what Bruce Cassidy has been able to achieve with a Bruins team that was supposed to have to go througha  rebuild after the Claude Julien years. It's dead even here.

GOALIES
Jordan Binnington's faced better goalies than himself in two of three rounds (Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets and Ben Bishop of the Dallas Stars) and came out on top, and he also put the San Jose Sharks' Martin Jones back in his place. His name can now be uttered in the same sentence as Patrick Roy, Ken Dryden, Ron Hextall, Cam Ward and Steve Penney (in that order) as the best rookie goalies OF ALL TIME in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, should the Blues win the Stanley Cup and he be in nets for all of his team's Ws, he'd break Roy's record of 15 wins as a rookie goaltender (1985-86).

The reason that won't happen will be facing him for at least 60 minutes per night, though.Tuukka Rask's name is thus far alone in the hat for the Conn Smythe trophy as the playoff MVP, win or lose. His performance is reminiscent of former Bruins star Tim Thomas (2011) in how dominant he's been relative to the competition. Not that there haven't been other examples in recent memory (Corey Crawford in 2013 and 2015, Jonathan Quick in 2012 and 2014), but to have two goalies from the same team be so much better than the competition in the same decade is something I don't remember seeing before, let alone Boston's. Even in the years of Grant Fuhr, Andy Moog and Bill Ranford with the dynasty Edmonton Oilers, so many other players were better than their peers by position that the goalies didn't matter as much. After all, we're talking about an era (now) where a team is lucky to score three goals per night, and where most games finish 2-1. Ain't no Wayne Gretzky, Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson, Paul Coffey or Mark Messier playing in this day and age.

MY VERDICT
This one goes to Boston. The Blues have played too many games for the week-long break to matter and give them an advantage over Boston. Rask will be Rask, he's shown us the good stuff for nearly a decade at this point, but there is a legitimate risk that Binnington might get cold with the time off. With the Bruins carrying a small advantage everywhere else, Rask tips it in their favour.

Bruins in 5 6 5 6 5 6.

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