Showing posts with label Washington Capitals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Washington Capitals. Show all posts

Sunday, September 5, 2021

Caps Preview: Alex Ovechkin Swatch Card

(team and product links go to sponsored Amazon products, player links go to related pages on my blog, news links go to source pages)

This will likely be the preface to all of this year's Season Preview posts: I liked doing last year's format, so I'll be doing it the same way this season as well, partly because of that but also because as a father of a toddler and a baby, I just do not have enough time to write two separate posts per day on each blog. I'll copy these on each one instead. Like last year, the entire scope of the analysis will take place here and the player will have some sort of direct connection to what's written.

Caveats: At this point, despite training camp being set to start, several players haven't found a team yet, many RFAs haven't signed with their respective teams, and a few clubs are currently above the salary cap, which means there is much maneuvering left to do.

Key exits: Brenden Dillon (D), Craig Anderson (G), Michael Raffl (LW), Zdeno Chara (D)

Key Arrivals: Matt Irwin (D), xxx (LW), xxx (C/LW), xxx (C), xxx (LW), xxx (D), xxx (D), xxx (G)

Top prospects: Connor McMichael (C), Hendrix Lapierre (C), Martin Fehervary (D), Alexander Alexeyev (D), Vincent Iorio (D), Damien Riat (LW), Aliaksei Protas (C), Brent Johnson (D), Brett Leason (RW), Kody Clark (RW), Lucas Johansen (D)

Sure, the Washington Capitals' stars are all in their 30s, they have few top-tier prospects that have Toronto-based pundits salivating and have exited the playoffs early every year since their 2018 Stanley Cup win, but this nucleus remains rock-solid with the likes of Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Anthony Mantha, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov. The goaltending position is also in good hands with Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek.

What makes their odds look good:
They can outscore the opposition like few teams can and have better goaltending than the Toronto Maple Leafs. If someone in the Atlantic can eliminate the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team from the Metropolitan Division could make it to the Cup Final.

Question marks: A lot of their firepower is tied into a handful of players, who account for a lot of the team's cap space. There are depth issues, and any injury troubles would mean a huge drop in the standings for the Caps.

Outlook:
This team hired Peter Laviolette as head coach because it is still hungry for a Cup. Regular-season seeding doesn't have to matter much, the postseason is how this team will be judged, now and forever.

Prediction:
Third in the Metropolitan Division.

Fresh off a five-year deal that will realistically lead him to breaking Wayne Gretzky's career goals record, Ovechkin is a man on (another) mission. And while the chase for Gretzky's goals record is huge in itself, Ovie is also chasing Sidney Crosby's two undeserved Conn Smythes, a gimme from a handful of Toronto-based journalists who didn't want to give Phil Kessel his due. Should Ovechkin get a second one, it might even force the Hall Of Fame to waive its three-year waiting period to get him in.

Here he is wearing the team's dreadful red (home) Reebok Edge uniform from a few years back, on the swatch version of card #73 from Panini's 2010-11 Luxury Suite collection:
It features a white game-worn jersey swatch. I got this one on Ebay for just over five bucks; its usual book value is closer to $40-50.

Monday, September 2, 2019

NHL Preview 2019-20: Washington Capitals

This year again, I will twin-post with my Collectibles Blog and write about a player who is related to my Preview post here. Today, it's former Vezina winner Braden Holtby.
GM: Brian MacLellan (since 2014). 8.5/10
Coach: Todd Reirden (since 2018). 7.5/10

2018-19 record: 48-26-8, 104 points (1st in the Metropolitan Division, 3rd in the Eastern Conference). Playoffs: Eliminated in Round 1 by the Carolina Hurricanes in seven games.

Departures: Brooks Orpik(D), Matt Niskanen (D), Dmitrij Jaskin (RW), Brett Connolly (LW), André Burakovsky (F).

Arrivals: Richard Panik (RW), Radko Gudas (D), Brendan Leipsic (RW).

Top forwards: Alex Ovechkin (captain, 70-85 points, look for him to flirt with the 50-goal mark again), Nicklas Backstrom (75-85 points), Evgeny Kuznetsov (70-80 points), Tom Wilson (45-50 points), T.J. Oshie (25-30 goals, 50-55 points, missing 10 games to injury), Panik (30-40 points), Carl Hagelin (30-40 points), Jakub Vrana (30-40 points), Lars Eller (25-30 points).

Must-improve forwards: Hagelin has all the tools to be a point-per-game player except one: a deadly shot. He does everything else well, has a good hockey sense, is super-fast and can control the puck at high speeds, but he seems to never be able to finish or set up perfect goals. With all his tools, he's a middling forward, but I'll always expect ONE jaw-dropping, 60-65-point season from him.

Top defensemen: John Carlsson (50-60 points), Dmitry Orlov (30-40 points), Michal Kempny (25-35 points), Jonas Siegenthaler (20-30 points), Gudas (15-20 points), Christian Djoos (10-15 points).

Goalies: Braden Holtby (92/100), Pheonix Copley (77/100).

Top rookies: Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (21 years old, LW), Alex Alexeyev (19, D), Martin Feherevary (19, D).

Analysis:
GM McLellan didn't like losing to the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 1, so he revamped his middle-six and added grit in the form of Gudas on the back end. The direct result is a net loss on the talent front (unless some talented rookies take the place of the departed, in which case the Caps will actually have improved) and possibly even the locker room chemistry.

But as long as they have a healthy trio of Ovie, Backstrom and Kuznetsov up front, they have a chance. So much so that despite falling back by roughly 5-7% in raw talent, they probably still can win the Metro because their competition either regressed (Pittsburgh Penguins, Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets), remained stable (New York Islanders) or didn't improve enough (New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils). All of these teams are good enough to challenge for a playoff spot if the stars align, but none have a real shot at un-seeding the Caps.

The X factor is Holtby and Backstrom entering their final contract seasons, and Ovie having just another year left after this one, meaning contract negotiations and retirement talk may cause distractions.

Prediction: 1st in the Metropolitan Division.